FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Analysis

Jason Rogers

FXCM Representative
Welcome to the FXCM/DailyFX analyst thread!

In this thread, I will regularly post analysis and trading signals from the DailyFX Analysts, DailyFX PLUS Trading Signals, and any other news and analysis I may find interesting which applies to forex trading. I may even contribute my own humble trading analysis from time to time when I find something interesting.

Any commentary or trading ideas you have is also welcome, and I look forward to discussing the market with everyone. Please note that the FXCM/DailyFX risk warning applies to any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information in this thread.


Jason :)
Dollar Likely to Lose versus Euro, NZD. Watch Gold Prices and AUD

According to the Weekly Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Report, the US Dollar may have set an important high versus the Euro and New Zealand Dollar, but watch the price of gold and the Australian Dollar for further USD-buying opportunities.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

See specific US Dollar forecasts in the individual currency sections on DailyFX.com
Euro, Yen Rally as Dollar, Equity Markets Slip at Start of FOMC Week


Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for event risk this week.
SSI Snapshots - EUR/USD

According to the latest readings from our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), the ratio of long to short positions in the EUR/USD stands at -1.68. That means there are 1.68 short positions among FXCM's retail client base for each long position.


In other words, only 37% of traders are long, while 63% are short. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EUR/USD may continue higher.

For years, FXCM clients have been able to get SSI updates on DailyFXplus.com, but now you can also get real-time SSI data for up to 19 symbols directly on your charts.


The SSI Snapshots indicator updates every second, so you have the most up-to-date info on the marketplace. And with convenient docking, you can position the indicator on any chart so it never gets in the way.
FREE Webinar - Live SSI on Live Charts

For years, FXCM clients have been able to get SSI updates on DailyFXplus.com, but now you can also get real-time SSI data for up to 19 symbols directly on your charts.


This Thursday, we are hosting a live SSI webinar. In this webinar, DailyFX Strategist James Stanley will show traders how to install, implement, and strategize with the Speculative Sentiment Index, which is now available through our new SSI Snapshots indicator for Trading Station Desktop.

This one-hour SSI webinar will take place at two times on Thursday.
Dollar Forecast Improves, SSI Shows it May Rally Across the Board

The US Dollar has held key support levels versus the Euro, Sterling, and Japanese Yen. David Rodriguez's weekly summary of forex trader sentiment (SSI) and changes in position shows why it might continue higher against most major FX counterparts with the exception of the Euro.


Retail FX crowds remain steadily long the Australian Dollar versus its US namesake with the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) showing there are over 3 long positions for every short position. A contrarian view of ‘herd’ sentiment leaves us with a similarly steady bearish trading bias.


AUD/USD currently trades just above key support at $0.7250, and further breakdown offers little in the way of concrete support until the psychologically significant $0.7000 level.


The SSI Snapshots indicator shown on the Trading Station chart above updates every second, so you have the most up-to-date sentiment info on the marketplace.
USD/CAD Posts 3rd Highest Volume Day in 2015 As Oil Plunges

From a pure volume perspective, high volume days that occur when the trend advances helps to validate the larger trend. This activity shows that market participants do not want to miss out on the move and would rather buy now before being forced to buy at worse prices later.


Real Volume indicator on Marketscope charts

On the chart above, you can see volume has risen as the trend matures and last week’s move through the 2009 high aligned with the third highest volume day for 2015 further validating the probability of trend continuation.

Full article on DailyFX.com
Chinese stimulus continues with devaluation of the Yuan

The Chinese Central Bank triggered the biggest one-day decline in the value of the Yuan in over 20 years.


Created with Marketscope/Trading Station Desktop; prepared by James Stanley

This Yuan devaluation has created a ripple-effect, with commodities and commodity currencies selling-off.