FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Analysis

[Jason Rogers]

I think Crude is playing a part in CAD weakness..

That's right, AliKhan

Below is a chart showing the inverse correlation between USD/CAD and USOil.

 

[Jason Rogers]

USD/CHF weekly key reversal at 5 month highs

 

[Jason Rogers]

The graph below is from today's special report by John Kicklighter, chief currency strategist of DailyFX.com:

It shows that, out of the major central banks, the Fed and the BoE are the most likely to raise rates in the near future particularly in light of the latest inflation figures which are discussed in Kicklighter's report.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Talking Points

• EUR/USD rallies on dovish Fed- scalps eye topside targets
• Updated targets & invalidation levels
• Event Risk on Tap This Week

 

[Jason Rogers]

Australian Dollar Forecast to Hit Fresh Lows


Retail FX traders continue buying aggressively into Australian Dollar weakness, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us in favor of selling into AUD declines. The majority of traders last turned net-long the AUD as it traded below $0.80 in May.

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

Until we see a marked swing in the opposite direction we see little reason to change our long-standing bearish trading bias, and indeed any rallies are likely to be capped by significant volume-based resistance at $0.7400.

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: Directional Real Volume indicator​

The Australian Dollar briefly broke to fresh lows versus the US Dollar before bouncing sharply, and the AUD/USD now trades at major volume-based resistance levels near $0.7400. Failure to close above would nonetheless leave focus on recent lows near $0.7250. A break above $0.7400 would instead target the bottom of a major volume-based congestion range near $0.7600.

 

[Jason Rogers]

The Weekly Volume Report: Big Spot Moves But Volume Unimpressive


Talking Points

• EUR/USD pushes to two-month high
• USD/JPY breaks 123.00

Daily Volume Chart: EUR/USD

Real Volume charts created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• EUR/USD continued higher this week to trade at its highest level in almost two months
• Volume has failed to pick up materially on the latest advance which is a warning sign that the recovery may only be corrective
• The failure in daily OBV to get above last week’s high is also concerning
• However, A close below 1.1000 on above average volume is needed to turn the outlook negative again on the euro

Daily Volume Chart: USD/JPY

Real Volume charts created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• USD/JPY fell to its lowest levels in over a month this week
• Volume, however, remains very low and unsupportive of the decline
• The downtick in daily OBV is negative, but a break under the late July low is needed to excite about potential further downside
• A close back over 124.30 on above average volume would turn us positive on the pair

 

[AsstModerator]

Jason,

I think something has gone wrong with your images. Please use Preview Post when posting and you'll be able to see if everything worked or not.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Jason,

I think something has gone wrong with your images. Please use Preview Post when posting and you'll be able to see if everything worked or not.

Thanks, but the images appear fine on my end. What is it that you see, or don't see?

 

[Jason Rogers]

Forex volatility prices surge on sudden market panic pointing to bigger moves ahead.

Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

 

[Jason Rogers]

Webinar: Global Equity Rout Fuels Massive Spike in FX Volatility



Talking Points

• Weekly DailyFX Scalp Webinar archive covering critical setups
• Updated targets & invalidation levels
• Event Risk on Tap This Week