gbpaud curvefit at 30 Sep 22, likely crash

curvefitter

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gbpaud312ma-30sep22-backtest.png

gbpaud312ma30sep22.png


Hello,

New here.

Long time ago, I was experimenting with a curvefit method to predict forex. Even then I realized it is almost impossible to try predicting forex movements with any form of technical anlaysis (I believe George Soros used no TA!). If anyone could predict forex , it would be Google with their supercomputers, data memory resources and whatever they used to come up with DeepMind which could defeat the world's top Go player (this is a remarkable achievement for those in the know). I do believe no one "yet" in the world has any computer system that could beat the forex market.

I lost a few thousand dollars and stop. My computer then was a 386 that took hours to do one curvefit. Recently, I revived my program as I am curious if I could try again to see if it could work. Now with my intel586[edit intel i5], it takes only less than a minute for me to get a perfect fit of 300 points (correlation coefficient 0.999) with four processors at full throttle. Still, the backtesting shows that the "Holy Grail" is "difficult"" to find!

The chart above shows a curvefit for gbpaud daily data:
data end: 30/sep/2022 (the green is moving average)
moving average = 52 x 6 = 312.
fit range = 10 x 312
backtesting: data end - 360 days.
predicted actual bottom : 30 Sep/2022 + 1.25 years (ma bottom less 1/2 ma) = Jan 2024.
bottom: below 1.46 (now 1.74)
My Opinion: 80% certainty based on curvefit and the pattern of the pair.

This curvefit - even if accurate - is useless for short term traders. The short term volatility would kill! OK to hold long term WITHOUT STOP LOSS, if you are a multi- millionaire !

Best regards.
 
Last edited:
Greetings,


First, my eur/usd curve-fit could be found here:
elitetrader.com/et/threads/eurusd-312day-ma-curve-fit-30-sep-2022-likely-sharp-rise.370052

The gbpaud movement for 2007 - 2022 is highly volatile. So to forecast is very difficult. I have to test different run parameters to get reasonable back-testing and backward forecast (extrapolate backward). I have changed to 156 dma (26 weeks x 6 = 1/2 year). The curve-fit still seem to suggest the long-term is gbpaud going down:
moving average = 26 x 6 = 156
fit range = 2350 - 4928 (4 Oct 2022)
back testing: data end - 200 days
predicted MA bottom: 5330/1.3739
market bottom: 4 Oct 2022 + (5330 - 4928 - 84) = +318 days(1 year)= 4 Oct 2023,
Reliability: Prediction 70% certainty; high difficulty to predict.

Best Regards.
gbpaud-156dma-4Oct2022-bt.png
gbpaud-156dma-4Oct2022.png
 
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