GBPUSD Monthly : it's the Fibonacci, stupid ! (2015 07 01)

[stephane]

GU monthly is following a Fibonaccci retracement. The last candle rose from the 50 retracement level around 1,53 then rejected two SMAs around 1,594, to close at the 38,2 support around 1,57.



From here it may rise to test the 23,6 level around 1,62, or to go back to retest the 50 support level. The last monthly candle is bullish and made a higher high therefore I prefer to see it as a long, but the market is quite weird those last days...

On H4, GU is in a range between 1,566 and 1,579. Please note the H4 100 SMA reaching the range support at 1,566. A perfect spot for a long signal.

 

[stephane]

1,566 was a perfect H4 range support to monitor for a long signal, so of course but the market preferred to break it down ! It stands now as resistance, and I will sell signals on a retest.

 

[stephane]

Morning doji star on GU Daily above the 1,56 psychological level. As the chart looks rather bearish to me (new lower low), I will rather try to sell rallies around an old range broken support at 1,566. If it breaks up, the next resistance is the range resistance around 1,575. On the bearish side, a retested breakdown of 1,56 would be a strong invitation to enter short. Do not forget to close your trade by the evening, as you do not want to let them opened over this week end.