Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

IvanGlobalPrime

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‘Risk On’ Suppresses US Dollar & Yen Outlook

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets


The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The markets looked past the 20.5m US job losses as part of last Friday’s NFP data as clearly depicted by the unfazed price action in the equity market, still showing a convergent bullish bias from a multi-timeframe angle as the 3k mark nears.

The market may have also taken comfort over the potential ease in tensions between the US and China in trade relationships, following a call between China’s VP He and US trade representatives. But remember, fundamentals is a complex matter to account for.

The call helped to appease worries that a renewed trade war could be in store. A joint statement was released reading that “in spite of the global health emergency, both countries fully expect to meet their obligations under the agreement in a timely manner.”

The rollback of containment measures in an expanding number of countries is argued to also be helping. Australia and NZ have fared formidably well and phases 2 and 3 of the rollback are now in sight, France and Spain announcing further ease in lockdowns, etc.

The currencies most emboldened by the lingering ‘risk on’ conditions include the usual suspects (AUD, NZD, CAD), making further strides at the expense of the USD and JPY. The latter two remain on the backfoot in light of the current sentiment, especially JPY.

The outperformance of the commodity-linked currency complex makes further upside in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and lower quotes in the USD/CAD the default view held as part of my daily analysis. Remember, where equities go, these market will most likely follow.

When analyzing the lay of the land in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, right off the bat I see two market indecisive to break higher based on market structure alone. Now, when I throw into the mix intermarket studies, it clearly makes the prospects of a meaningful recovery off lows a tricky prospect that certainly doesn’t receive my blessing.

In today’s video, as usual, I elaborate, from the ground up, why I believe scenario A will happen as opposed to B, all looked through the magnifying glass of my experience. Note, one must be well aware that the key take away here is to pay attention to the well defined processes I follow to always come up to label markets as trending or ranging.

As traders, that’s what you should take aim for, tackling each chart as an unresolved puzzle that presents specific characteristics that will make it more or less primed for you to engage based on your own style. It is the robust process that matters. The outcome will follow as a byproduct of how purposefully you engage in the journey.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows

This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection-
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
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Find my latest market thoughts

Bullish Equities Or US Dollar? Something’s Got To Give

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

We had an interesting shift in dynamics in the last 24h, where low vol in the S&P 500 has not been an impediment for the Aussieto see consistent follow through supply.

In the equity space, the S&P 500 is my ultimate bellwether indicator of risk sentiment, and it suggests the path of least resistance remains up. The VIX has been decreasing at a time that both the 4h and daily structures are still in bullish congruence.

Back to the Aussie action overnight, it felt as if the market was all of a sudden decoupling from the well-anchored dynamics of a stronger Aussie when equities stay buoyed. Fast forward to Asian trading this Tuesday, and long and behold, we have the following news breaking out -> China hit Australia with import bans… hmmm…

I must say, warnings had been making the rounds, and probably the market felt like the Aussie was no longer justifying such hefty levels.

The ripple effects of an escalation in the trade war between China and Australia were felt across G8 FX, such as the Yen, which had a rough day on Monday, yet recovering some of its out sized losses as the risk dynamics took a hit (Asian equities lower).

A currency that is definitely recovering some of its lost mojo as of late is the US Dollar. And things could just be getting started. Why am I saying that? Not only because we’ve seen a commanding bullish breakout in USD/JPY, but both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are walking a fine line nearby daily support areas. We might be close to an inflection point…

However, if we were to see the unraveling of a new long-lasting buying phase in the USD, the 2020 dynamics suggest that this can really only come if equities implode again. Not only that, but the rally in commodity-linked currencies would come to an end.

The scenario where equities look ripe to sell, I am afraid, is still too premature for me to call it and simply cannot be technically justified. Something has got to give and I will be on top of the charts to keep updating you all with the latest developments.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows

This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Equities Show Cracks, USD Outlook Improved?

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

An important update today. As I weigh in the preponderance of evidence through equities, bonds, currencies, it looks as though we might be nearing an inflection point in risk dynamics if my analysis of structures and momentum is anything to go by.

Why am I saying this? First of all, the S&P 500, for the first time since the mid-March low was printed, provides us with a validated 4-hour bearish structure as sellers blasted through a key swing low with unquestionable dominance. The daily structure in the S&P 500, however, is still not bearish until 2,830.00 is cleared on a closing basis. Also be aware that the VIX put in the biggest bullish candle since March 18.

This sudden drop in equity valuation, which some find it attributable to the fact that US top health official Fauci is encouraging a slow down in re-opening the US economy. “I feel if that occurs, there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you might not be able to control. It will set you back – not only leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided but it could even set you back on the road to recovery.”

Chatter also had it that the renewed selling could’ve emanated from the new China sanctions bill introduced by Republicans, which gives Trump powers to go after China with renewed punitive actions if they fail to provide full disclosure on a COVID-19 investigation.“I’m convinced that without Chinese Communist Party deception the virus would not be here in the United States,” Graham said in a statement.

As the regular readers of my daily notes would know, disseminating all the fundamentals on what ultimately tilted the balance is secondary. What matters is what price did, that’s the best way I know that serves me as a road-map to formulate the next biases. In today’s video, I build a case for equities now to be suffer on strength off the 4h chart, which places the USD and JPY in a good position to outperform near term.

Let’s keep dissecting the latest currency flows. In the case of the EUR/USD, I’d strongly endorse not to get ahead of yourself if your view has shifted to outright bullish as in my book this is a market that is still very much trapped in an expanded range at a time of USD strength again as the ‘leading indicator’ based on weekly correlations.

A market that looks prime to find follow through supply is GBP/USD after sellers exerted its dominance by not only finding a fresh leg lower in the 4h chart, but that push has represented a technical milestone off the daily too as we finally have a market that is accepting as the next end of day value a close below a key daily support. The prospect for an extended lockdown in the UK coupled with BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent hinting at a ramp up in bond purchases soured the mood.

The USD/JPY looks trickier as the structure is unambiguously bullish, both in the 4h and daily timeframes, but with the momentum via the SMT about to be lost in a matter of 1 to 2 candles as Yen strength returns, I can envision further near term sell-side pressure. The bottom line is that at times of a pick up in risk aversion, trading two risk-off sensitive currencies is not where you’ll find the most definable trends.

Another market that appears to go through a bearish stage that may soon compromise the rather constructive structure shown for quite some time is the AUD/USD. However, it’s still too early to call for a full-fledged shift in dynamics to the downside. For that, the first objective is to take out 0.6435 in the 4h, and from there, accomplish a daily close below 0.6375. Only then, the bearish stars will align.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows

This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Back-To-Back Risk Off, GBP & NZD Suffer

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets


The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

In the last 24h, the deterioration in risk sentiment has taken yet another hit as the S&P 500 averages nearly 2% losses back-to-back. This deleveraging in equity bets has led to the usual suspects (USD, JPY) to outperform the rest of the G8 FX complex.

Looking at the key drivers, it was all about the speech by Fed’s Chairman Powell that gripped the market’s attention. The net effect, when all things considered, was a Fed Chairman that keeps carrying a downbeat outlook for the economy, while ruling out (for now) negative rates as part of the policy settings to stimulate the economy.

On a side note, it’s also important to emphasize another Central Bank, that unlike the Fed, is laying the ground for negative rates. I am referring to the RBNZ, which as part of yesterday’s policy decision, not only doubled down on its QE purchases commitment, but it also opened the door to enact negative interest rates later this year.

Moving into G8 FX, readers of my daily report should still keep fresh in their minds the prudence I promoted in longs EUR/USD. In my book, by accounting for intermarket analysis and technicals, I could clearly perceive danger ahead around the 1.0870-80. Fast forward 24h, and the outcome has been a topside failure of the 4h expanded range amid a negative divergence in my prop USD index (inverted).

A market that looks poised to see further follow through continuation as the focus shifts to selling on rallies after technical cracks both in the 4h and the daily includes the GBP/USD. I did underscore in yesterday’s report that all the stars were in alignment to fade strength in this market and long and behold, this is exactly what has transpired. No reason at this point to be a brave contrarian in my book.

A market that at this point in time fails to provide clear signals is the USD/JPY. It keeps edging lower as risk suppression settles in, even if as we step out to the daily, bulls took control as of late. The bottom line is one must be patient and align momentum (lost) with structures (still there). One alone is a sub-optimal trend-trading environment.

When it comes to the AUD/USD, despite equities rolling over, it continues to trade stubbornly within a confined range. However, the logical direction if the sell-side pressure in the S&P 500 picks up is going to be a resumption of the macro bear trend sooner or later. That, however, remains to be seen as we don’t have the backing of technicals.

A bunch of markets that are offering decent opportunties to engage in ongign trend at this point through 4-hour charts include the USD/CAD, NZD/USD, GBP/JPY, BTC/USD to name a few. If you want to get into the granular details, today’s video presentation touches on these attractive markets aligning structure with momentum.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Equity Buyers Re-Emerge, Rotational Risk

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets


The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The overall risk sentiment, taking the temperature via the S&P 500, is one characterized, as per the last 24h, by a marked improvement as reflected by the failure of the bottom-side delimitation of the index daily range. The abrupt rejection off the lows in US equities resulted in a bullish engulfing candle and tentatively, places the focus back up.

As long as we don’t see a decisive breakout of the daily structure in the S&P 500, the currency market won’t enjoy the ideal backdrop to see long-lasting trend developing. Instead, the risk is that we will struggle to get out of 2nd gear with decisive impulse as the prospects of rotational markets fading late buyers/sellers settle in.

There is definitely going to be idiosyncratic aspects that will inflict some currencies an extra dose of vol as recently seen in the NZD post RBNZ or the pick up in GBP sales as talk builds up of QE expansion. However, by and large, unless the underlying risk sentiment shifts meaningfully, breakout traders in high timeframes will face tough times.

Fundamentally, before I jump into other markets. President Trump made headlines after publicly stating he has no interest in speaking with President Xi in a Fox news interview, certainly stepping up the rhetoric against China. Remember, Trump has been very vocal as of late blaming China for the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Now, let me make a point why the approach to interpret technicals over-rides any decisions purely based on fundamentals. This very same story on US-China tensions above is often utilized, always in hindsight, to fit certain narratives of price behavior. This is why I tend to almost never account for fundamentals as part of my decision-making process, other than to be aware of key releases to refine trade management.

Rest assured, if the equity market had sold off on the back of Trump’s interview, which carried a very sober outlook on the future relationship with China, we’d see plenty of headlines justifying the move lower in equities because of Trump as the culprit. Along the same lines, a weaker than expected US jobless claims on Thursday could have served the same purpose, but since it didn’t cause equities to stay sold, it is ditched and ignored.

Moving on. We’ve seen decisive buy-side pressure feeding through in Gold, taking the price to retest resistance at 1,735.00 in the context of a daily range. Gold enjoys an impeccable positive macro outlook as the US indebtedness goes through the roof amid unprecedented uncertainty. Price action will be the ultimate determiner but it looks as even in the front we are nearing another statement of bullish intents on a close above 1,735.00, which I’d expect will drive plenty of interest.

With further validation that equities are range-bounding from a daily standpoint, it is no wonder that we are seeing the failure of the JPY index to extend its spell of strength. It is also what disincentives that commodity-linked currencies break away from confined daily ranges against the more risk sensitive currencies (USD, JPY, EUR, CHF).

In the EUR/USD, as I dissect the DNA of this market, it is hardly inspiring for trend follower traders. Instead, one must contend with a more limiting structure to be exploited (range conditions), which means the best RR prospects come at the extremes. Right now, this pair is once again trying to carve out a bottom of the lower bound.

Be aware, with Germany projecting a bigger than expected decline in tax revenues on Thursday, it creates jitters as to whether or not the country’s willingness to contribute to the EU fiscal stimulus will be affected. If so, that would be an important idiosyncratic element that may see the EUR decouple negatively from its risk correlation.

The GBP/USD is one of the only markets, which given its peculiar behavior this week, where selling has come in earnest, and in light of the congruence found in structures and momentum off the daily and 4-hour charts, I still can envision the trend lower to prevail. The weakness in the GBP index, at a time of a USD recovery this week, has really pushed the envelope of what one may think is technically possible in a market that remains overall very rotational in nature.

The USD/JPY, as I look at the 4-hour chart, the existence of flashing buy signals are re-emerging again. The momentum and structure are back in alignment, which has also the backing off the daily timeframe. This sets up the stage for conditions to be ripe in order to jump onto the bullish bandwagon at discounts. Remember, a safeguard via a lower timeframe setup triggers is a needed insurance to confirm one’s bias.

I won’t spend much time analyzing the AUD/USD as the non-directional nature of this market remains the name of the game. With equities in the US finding buyers at the lows, the AUD saw renewed buy-side interest which takes me back to squaring my view to neutral. Be reminded, it is perfectly find not having conviction in a particular market, and that’s precisely my view now. I am sitting out trading it.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Insights Into Market Flows

This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Pound & Gold Markets Come To Life

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets


The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

As I crack open and dissect the latest market flows, I must say that my attention this time immediately goes to two markets that are finally coming to life such as the Pound or Gold, both trending nicely after recent breakouts of structures on the daily timeframes.

In the case of GBP, with further negative news piling in over the weekend (BOE’s Haldane talks negative rates, no-deal Brexit plans), even if most of the damage was done last Friday, the currency is by far the most fragile. It has therefore been an environment that threw around some of the juiciest risk reward prospects if short.

When it comes to gold, the trading of a daily range, which had been the norm for a number of weeks, looks like is now history as Friday’s daily candle auctioned and accepted prices beyond the 1,735/40.00 resistance. It now opens the door to the next target of 1,800.00 even if for those value-seeking technical traders, patience is needed to at least allow some for of retracement and avoid to engage at these highs.

The reason I’ve prioritized the coverage of GBP or Gold is because the S&P 500 has been a rather dull affair the last 24h. The bellwether index in the US remains traded within close proximity of its daily support, which makes the immediate prospects foggier.

Note, in the fundamental front, the mounting tensions between the US and China on trade, tech must be accounted as negative inputs for equities. Similarly, the increase of military language is also a worrying development to keep an eye. All these factors, fundamentally, support the technicals in gold, which are firing up a buy on dips context.

The New Zealand Dollar is another market offering really interesting dynamics as it follows the path of the Pound by fully decoupling from the behavior of the Aussie, which remains much more stable. The trigger point initiating the pick up in sell-side pressure in the Kiwi was the recent admission that the RBNZ is looking into negative rates.

But brace yourself because what we are seeing in the Pound or the Kiwi, driven by idiosyncratic elements in each currency’s economy, could be just an aperitif of what’s to come. Why? Because we are finally starting to witness the aggregation of flows heading back into the appeal of the USD in the context of a macro bullish trend.

The re-emergence of USD bids could soon put on a compromising position other markets that so far have traded in quietest conditions such as the EUR/USD or the AUD/USD, both hovering nearby support areas in the daily chart. My intermarket model tells me the risks are certainly on the rise for an eventual breakout of structures.

Note, over the weekend, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a U.S. economic recovery faces the real prospect of not getting out of 2nd gear until next year and a full comeback dependable on a vaccine. Powell also threw a headline that tends to be positive to equities when saying that Fed is not out of ammunition and can do more, which is obviously the ‘Fed Put’ buyers of equities cling on going forward.

“This economy will recover. It may take a while … It could stretch through the end of next year. We really don’t know. Assuming there is not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you will see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year. For the economy to fully recover people will have to be fully confident and that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine” Powell said as part of “60 Minutes” news show.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead


Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
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Find my latest market thoughts

‘Risk On’ Returns With A Vengeance

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The combination of vaccine hopes as Moderna published promising results of its phase 1 trial, progress made to fund the rebuilding of the economic fabric in Europe, as well as the predisposition of Fed’s Powell to deploy more momentary ammunition if/when needed, were all contributing factors sending risk through the roof on Monday.

The net effect in the currency market, amid the explosion seen in equities across both sides of the pond (Europe and the US), is an Aussie going full send into higher ground, with the Canadian Dollar, Kiwi and Euro following suit in moves that given the relevance of the fundamental developments, ended up being very punchy in nature.

This new ‘risk on’ environment has been very damaging for the likes of the US Dollar and even worse for the technical stance of the Yen. The persistent one-way street buying in the equity market, with the S&P 500 retesting the upper bound of its daily range, is a red flag for bears. It should make traders re-assess preconceived biases, especially if we end up with an upside resolution beyond the 3,000.00 in the S&P 500.

The fact that risk conditions saw such a marked improvement has, to a certain extend, brought back a sense that a reflation environment is now a scenario being priced in (early stages). At least that’s what one can conclude from the rampant movements seen in the energy sector (Oil, gasoline, natural gas, copper, iron ore), at a time that reports emerge of China’s demand for energy returning to precrisis levels.

A market fueled with renewed buy-side impetus and making an important bullish technical declaration includes the EUR/USD. It finally cleared a huge intraday resistance at 1.0875-80, which leaves wide open the doors for a short-term buying campaign aimed at ~1.10. Here, the structure and momentum agrees in the 4-hour, while the inertia of the daily, still in a range, is to keep the upward dynamics.

A currency that as of late has been under-performing and is yet to make a similar statement of intent as the Euro did is the Pound. By analyzing the GBP/USD, it is clear that the outlook looks way poorer than its often correlated EUR/USD instrument. There is still a high wall to climb for buyers to exert full control in GBP/USD, with neither the daily (outright bearish) nor the 4-hour (structure still bearish but momentum lost) making a case to meaningfully shift the focus north.

The AUD/USD is definitely a market that has come back to life, and as in the case of the S&P 500, this is a market that is too inching closer to an inflection point with significant technical ramifications if 0.6550 gives way to higher auctions. If a close occurs beyond this leve on Tuesday, I am looking at potentially 150+ pips of further upside room until the 0.67 round number is met (100% proj target).

A market I tend to touch regularly is Gold as it appears to have plenty of interest from retailers. The crossroads we find ourselves in, with COVID-19 leading to a suppression of rates and the full reactivation of the fiat printing presses, is a thematic very positive fundamentally wise and one where retailers are keen to express views on.

Technically, gold in the daily and the 4-hour is yet to see pain inflicted from a structural angle, even if some red flags are now showing up in the form of a complete loss in momentum in the last 24h. Still, the daily still communicates to be a buyer on weakness.

Also note, if you are expecting the upcoming event where Powell and Mnuchin are set to testify before the Senate Banking Committee, just be aware that Powell’s speech has already been pre-released. The key message that stands for now, as part of the 60 minutes interview, is that the policy-makers remains “willing to use all available tools.”

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Equities Give Back Gains, ‘Risk On’ Not Over?

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…

Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The groovy mood dominating the equity space failed to extend on Tuesday as the S&P 500 continues to struggle taking out a key decision point in the form of the upper bound of its daily range just short of 3,000.00. The jury is therefore still out there.

This topside failure in equities led to a hiccup in ‘risk on’ flows late on the day, yet there are a number of currency charts off a 4-hour angle still supporting the idea that buyers will have more goes. It is also suspiciously intriguing that AUD/JPY is breaking higher.

The culprit behind the latest change of hearts in the equity market, as Statnews reports, is the revelation that Moderna withheld some key information about its vaccine trials, alongside the fact that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) did not publish a press release, hence it leaves big questions on the table.

Also note, a key propeller of the buy-side action in equities as of late came courtesy of Fed’s Chairman Powell, who in a recent 60-minutes interview, endorsed the idea of deploying more policy ammunition to reduce the risk of companies’ liquidity and solvency issues when and if needed. That undeterred commitment to be the ultimate circuit breaker has proven to be music to the ears of systematic equity buyers.

Amid this uncertainty over the timeline for a vaccine and promises that the Fed remains willing to keep flooding the market with more liquidity, gold continues to amass buy-side interest with the 4-hur and daily technical picture in agreement. In the last 24h, buyers returned to join the bid at a critical SR flip around the $1,725-30.00 area.

Shifting gears to the EUR/USD, the pair traveled further north landing at a critical resistance between the 1.0980 & 1.10 round number. Note, the bullish momentum and structure off the 4-hour still implies another go into higher level could very much be in store. The eruption of buy-side flows this week came fast and furious, so it is likely that it will take more than 24h to see a potential reversal of the trend if at all.

The GBP/USD shows a notable contradiction between a newly found bullish structure in the 4-hour chart and the outright bearish bias that the daily timeframe displays. Gaining long-side exposure in lower timeframes must be done exercising prudence and discretion as a role reversal area (support-turned-resistance) gets tested on the daily. The amount of bearish confluence off this last chart cannot be ignored.

A market running hot in line with the congruent analysis of structure, momentum and intermarket, all flashing buying signals includes the USD/JPY. Not only the shift in market structures was evident off the 4-hour and daily, alongside an upward slope in the SMT, but the ultimate ‘leading indicator’ to back up this bias (JPY index) was also showing us the way as it kept weakening across the board. This is a market where buyers, unquestionably, keep the upper hand.

The AUD/USD, much like what we’ve seen in the S&P 500, is a market that will behave heavily dependable on equities.We are at a key decision point and by looking at the 4-hour, it doesn’t not appear as though buyers had the last say with the structure and momentum still resonance for a market that offers credence to keep pushing higher. A break and hold above 0.6555-60 is critically important here.

The USD/CAD, meanwhile, has printed a commanding bullish engulfing candle off the 4h chart away from a daily support area. However, this price action alone does not suffice to conclude that buyers have done much damage at this point. Remember, awaiting for a change of structure and momentum via the SMT turning higher would allow more evidence that the tide is turning, even if this is one of the ugliest markets to trade given the range-bound nature of its price.

Last but not least, a market that currently shows a disparity with equities is the AUD/JPY. Sooner or later, the trifecta of instruments comprised of the S&P 500, my USD prop index and AUD/JPY must realign. At this point, neither the S&P 500 nor the USD index broke market structures yet the AUD/JPY did. Did buyers jump the gun in the latter? Because if so, the selling opportunity that may come about is rather enticing. Or is AUD/JPY acting as the leading gauge? What’s clear is that this divergence is a big anomaly.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Oceanic Currencies Lead The Way

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…

Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The buoyancy in risk appetite continues to be the name of the game. This is well expressed through an Aussie breaking higher against the US Dollar or Japanese Yen with further congruence found via the S&P 500 recording its highest close since March 6th, marginally breaking its multi-week range with the 3,000.00 mark just a whisker away. The price action in WTI, up in the tune of 5%, is also supporting this narrative.

The market has clearly spoken as of late that it cares most about the development of a vaccine that fast-tracks an economic recovery, both in the US and globally. The rollback measures around the world are also a contributing factor providing a cushion for risk to thrive. In the matter of a vaccine, with another company (Inovio Pharmaceuticals) also reporting encouraging findings (Moderna was first), the market is starting to adopt the view that it’s a matter of when not if a vaccine is made available.

The beauty of trading a technically-oriented approach, as I always stress, is the fact that you are not falling victim of being in a position to second-guess whether or not the market is getting ahead of itself. One simply let the price fluctuations to form definable structures, create spells of momentum plays, analyze value plays, and pull the trigger.

Even if it sounds as though headlines of the following caliber (White House issues 20 page broad-scale attack on China) published late on Wednesday could distort the rising valuation in equities, the reality is that the market is fixated in certain narratives. The one it is paying most attention is the timing of a vaccine, whether we like it or not.

The net effect in FX, with ‘risk on’ conditions flourishing, saw commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) have a field day, alongside an impressive performance by the EUR and CHF. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the US Dollar and Japanese Yen were the clear short-side plays, especially the former, with the Sterling, driven by its own idiosyncrasies (BoE Gov Bailey hinting at negative rates) also pressured.

An important note to understand the under-performance of the Sterling in recent times is the following. The BoE’s stance to shift towards, potentially, a negative-centric rate policy, is unlike the stance promoted by the BoC, RBA and Fed, all ruling out negative rates, hence this creates monetary policy divergence priced into GBP.

One can also start to include with more conviction, as part of the Central Banks against negative rates, the RBNZ. In an interview via Bloomberg by RBNZ Governor Orr on Wednesday, he said that “we don’t want to go negative at this point; we’re prepared to if we have to but not until a lot later. It’s got to jump the hurdles. It’s got to be seen to be necessary. It’s got to be seen to be effective, efficient and operationally capable”.

I was considering to include it or not as the event was largely ignored. Here it goes. The FOMC Minutes was as dull a release as it gets. This is because Powell already front-run, through an appearance in the Senate Banking Committee earlier this week, the latest stance by the Fed. Nonetheless, the key takeaways from the minutes included the news that “forward guidance could be made more explicit by utilising outcome-based forward guidance linked to a certain level of the unemployment rate or inflation”, and that “this forward guidance could be enhanced via yield curve control.”

Back to technicals. It’s worth underscoring how paramount it is to keep reinforcing the sense of broad ‘risk on’ conditions the fact that both the AUD/JPY (2 days ago) and now the AUD/USD gunned through previous swing highs, creating along the way a fresh bullish cycle off the daily timeframe. In my book, and until proven wrong, this price action delivers a crushing blow to risk sellers, in other words, in days and weeks to come, the US Dollar and the Yen face the risk of under-performing in such improved risk dynamics.

What this translates into in terms of fresh technical developments in currency majors is as follows. A potential upside resolution of the EUR/USD multi-month range through 1.10, a break down in the USD/CAD, currently at the lower bound of a daily range. This also means further follow through continuation in the AUD/USD. In the USD/JPY space, the path of least resistance remains bullish but remember that these two currencies tend to behave similarly, so account for slower moves and a rough patch to see springy moves.

All these views that I expose above, with the inclusion of Gold, the S&P 500, or the GBP/USD, which looks like may be the only exception where the underlying weakness int he Pound may limit the upside even on a USD broad-selling environment, are much more accurately articulated via today’s video analysis below.

Note, in the next 24h, there is going to be plenty of news releases that may act as stimulus for a pick up in volatility. Global PMIs in Australia, Japan, Germany, the Eurozone and the US. The Weekly Jobless Claims in the US will also be watched, alongside an appearance by RBA Governor Lowe’s at a financial regulators forum, plus three Fed speakers (Powell, Clarida and Williams) also due to speak.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead

Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Technical Merits To Retain ‘Risk On’ Outlook

The Daily Edge is authored by Ivan Delgado, 10y Forex Trader veteran & Market Insights Commentator at Global Prime. Feel free to follow Ivan on Twitter & Youtube weekly show. You can also subscribe to the mailing list to receive Ivan’s Daily wrap. The purpose of this content is to provide an assessment of the conditions, taking an in-depth look of market dynamics – fundamentals and technicals – determine daily biases and assist one’s trading decisions.

Let’s get started…
Scan Of The Markets

The indices show the performance of a particular currency vs G8 FX. A video on how to interpret these indices can be found in the Global Prime’s Research section.

The underlying risk appetite won’t go away that easy. Even if a setback in risk dynamics hit the market, it is still far from posing a serious technical threat in the daily bullish trends in those markets most sensitive to risk flows, namely the S&P 500 or the Aussie.

As usual, market commentators are massaging the narrative to fit the price action in equities. If on Wednesday it was all about hopes for a vaccine as rollback measures in the US accelerate, to justify the last push lower in equities, media outlets are resorting to the rising tensions between the US and China, nothing we didn’t know at this point.

Also, don’t forget, the US administration and its Central Bank, via recent interventions by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Fed’s Chairman Powell or Vice-Chair Clarida, all kept the doors wide open for further stimulus. This has proven to be music to the ears of equity bulls as the Fed floods the economy with new digitally printed money. Mnuchin said on Thursday “I think there is a strong likelihood we will need another bill…”

The S&P 500 is still anchored by the bullish technicals off the daily timeframe with both structure and momentum supportive. As one dives into the 4h chart, more patience is requires as the market went through a modes sell-side campaign that puts us back into a range. Keep watching this space to gauge the risk dynamics affecting FX.

The gold market fell sharply intraday with an important caveat for shorts. Do not jump the gun thinking further follow through will be an easy task as the daily stays outright bullish and a key role reversal level (previous resistance turned support) poses an extra hindrance. The path of least resistance in this market remains north-bound.

In the currency majors, the topside failure in the EUR/USD was a smart play for those spotting the negative divergence with my inverted prop USD index. Remember, the USD has been on the driver’s seat, hence any disparity in structures can provide a real edge. In the case of the EUR/USD, the poke into 1.10 (new highs) was not accompanied by the same breakout in the USD index, ultimately causing a fake out.

The GBP/USD is a market where judging by the lethargic price movements as of late, even at a time of intense sell-side pressure on the USD, suggests this is a market looking to absorb it and build shorts. In today’s video, I explain why through monitoring the USD index beavior vs the GBP/USD it hints considerable stacks of limit orders. A take out of 1.2185 will likely unleash a resumption of the bear trend.

The AUD/USD has transitioned into a period of contraction, even if still largely backed up by the bullish prospects off the daily where a major declaration of intent was accomplished on Wednesday. It is my base scenario that further follow through demand has decent chances of eventually transpiring towards the 100% target of 0.6745-50.

Another market that I typically touch on as part of my daily video includes USD/JPY. Here, the deep retracement off 108.00 round number that manifested was gratefully bought up by value traders. Not only the technicals were still favorable on this last dip sub 107.50, but the positive divergence with the JPY index was unquestionable. Since JPY runs on a correlation of 90%+, it did make a strong buying case.

Lastly, today’s BOJ statement came and went without much fanfare. The JPY appreciated on the back of it. The BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at JGB yield target while it decided on details of new loan scheme aimed at boosting lending to small, mid-sized firms hit by coronavirus pandemic. It will set aside 75 trln yen for new loan programme to combat coronavirus impact.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!

Insights Into Market Flows
This analysis is conducted on a multi timeframe dimension. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter a position, hence the video is mainly intended as a way to educate traders in upping their analytical skills.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead
Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes

MARKET STRUCTURES
Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to the tutorial How To Read Market Structures In Forex.

SMART MONEY TRACKER
In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Unlike levels of dynamic support or resistance or more subjective measurements such as fibonacci retracements, pivot points, trendlines, or other forms of reactive areas, horizontal areas of support and resistance are universal concepts used by the majority of market participants. It, therefore, makes the areas the most widely followed. The Ultimate Guide To Identify Areas Of High Interest.

FUNDAMENTALS
It’s important to highlight that the daily market outlook provided in this report is subject to the impact of the fundamental news. Any unexpected news may cause the price to behave erratically in the short term. Monitor the event risks via Forexfactory.com & refer to Fundamentals vs Technicals In Forex.

PROJECTION TARGETS
The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 
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