Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

IvanGlobalPrime

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Risk-Off Returns, USD & JPY Strengthen​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

Financial markets are exhibiting risk-off dynamics resulting in the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen catching a strong bid while global equities and bond yields fall. Surprisingly, the sell-off in risk assets was largely contained in the likes of the Aussie or the Kiwi, holding up extraordinarily well amid the severe deterioration in the risk mood. Meanwhile, the European currencies (EUR, CHF), which did put on a solid performance as of late, didn’t fare that well on Monday.

The worst performer for the day was the Canadian Dollar. If one goes back to the last video I produced yesterday, you will notice I pointed out this currency as one subject to further weakness short-term after the CAD index had broken its structure to the downside. Moreover, this was the currency to short as part of the hot trade of the day. Ultimately, the idea played out well as documented in today’s video.

We are at a crossroads just ahead of the US election in a state of affairs best described as dicey and highly uncertain. The treacherous environment leaves real money vey few options. In the US we might be going through a change at the top with Biden firmly on the lead. Besides, the US fiscal stimulus stalemate continues. In Europe we are seeing renewed widespread shutdowns. The UK is caught up in the middle of Brexit trade deal talks, while the economies of emerging markets are too imploding.

The number of new COVID-19 daily cases is back setting record numbers in both European countries and the US, which is only worsening the risk dynamics in what may well morph into another wave of economically damaging effects. We are starting to see countries like Spain (state of emergency with night curfews), Italy (all bars and restaurants to shut down by 6pm), to name a few, re-imposing tough measures to slow down the spread of the COVID-19 cases.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.



Insights – Hot Trade Of The Day​



In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead​



Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes​


MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Cautious Tone Prevails, The Japanese Yen Rules​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

With the US election just one week away, with no prospects of a fiscal stimulus package ahead of it, and with chatter of further lockdown restrictions in Europe amid the spike in COVID-19 cases, the Yen continues to be the dominant performer as stocks keep falling. The Kiwi and Gold have been two assets outperforming too.

One would think the risk-off dynamics would keep the strong bid tone in the US Dollar, but with so much uncertainty on the cusp of the outcome about the US election, buyers took the foot off the gad pedal on Tuesday, only for renewed strength to re-emerge in the last few hours. On the contrary, news that France and Germany may be re-imposing nation-wide lockdowns is not sitting well with the Euro.

The EUR is therefore the main laggard, followed closely by the CHF, and the CAD. The latter is going to be subject to increased volatility later today as the Bank of Canada meets to decided on its latest monetary policy stance. Before the event, in the Asian session, we would also find out about the Australian inflation figures, likely to inject some intraday volatility in the Aussie (neutral on Tuesday).

As part of the hot trade of the day, I’d like to highlight an opportunity to short the CAD/JPY that popped up early in Europe. Despite it fell short to meet the 3:1 risk reward target, is a great example of a trade meeting all the specifications to be taken as part of the trading course that I am going to release to the Global Prime community shortly. In the video below I walk you through the rationale in shorting CAD/JPY.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.



Insights – Hot Trade Of The Day​



In this video analysis, I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead​



Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes​


MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts are at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video, I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Classic Risk-Off, Equities Sold Globally​


Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The proverbial finally hit the fan in risk dynamics with very sharp falls in equities all over the world as the combination of an uncertain election outcome in the US, coupled with no fiscal stimulus package and spooky prospects of national lockdowns in Europe again was a burden to heavy to bear for Mr. Market. It was a one-way street with the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen the main beneficiaries.

One may notice the Pound did really well judging by the quick deterioration in financial conditions. The culprit here, once again, has to do with Brexit-related headlines that are speculating about Brexit talks having made progress with a deal possible by early November a possibility. The market has understandably factored that in. The Euro, ahead of today’s ECB policy meeting, also saw buy-side interest.

The three fiats that form what’s often referred to as the commodity currencies complex (AUD, NZD, CAD), without exception, were out of love right off the gates in Europe, with the bloodbath getting worse around the early stages of the US session as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq accelerates its overnight losses. Given the panic selling, even the likes of Gold and Silver sold off amid the global dash to the USD & JPY.

A special mention deserves the CAD, taking a more aggressive yet brief hit on the outcome of the Bank of Canada policy decision. The BOC plans to keep interest rate near zero until 2023 in a projection that assumes no widespread lockdowns are coming back, and that there will be a vaccine by 2022.

The selection of the hot trade of the day includes the pairing of the British Pound against the Australian Dollar in what appears to be an ideal technical setting to expect further strength conditional to getting a pullback into a critical area that constitutes a break of structure. This idea to get long exposure circa 1.8320/30 is backed up by the structure of fractal waves as depicted via my proprietary order flow script and the fact that it has formed what’s a major trap pattern in the 4h chart.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.



Insights – Hot Trade Of The Day​



In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead​





Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes​


MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Find my latest market thoughts

Dominant Performance Of The Yen & The USD​


Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen, following the dominant thematic of this week, emerged as the top performers once again on Thursday. Only the Canadian Dollar, late in the day, was able to keep up. The Euro gave back the previous day’s gains as the ECB sounded more dovish while the Pound was out of favor too this time. The Kiwi and the Aussie, after the overstretched moves from Wednesday, and with equities in ‘yo-yo’ mode, managed to put up a fight.

When analyzing the ECB policy decision, in a nutshell, the initial outcome was in line with expectations with rates and bond buying kept at current levels. However, it was the intervention by President Lagarde that caused the most damage to the Euro as she put on her ‘dovish hat’ by clearly hinting at increased stimulus at the December meeting. Other negative comments included that the near term outlook has deteriorated amid the spike in COVID-19 and tougher social restrictions as the recovery is losing momentum.

Another big story that should simply come as an anecdote but nonetheless worth highlighting is the resurgence in US GDP growth. President Trump will probably be boasting the record 33.1% jump even if the number remains below pre-pandemic levels and we should not forget this number comes on the back of a dramatic fall of -31.4% in the previous Q2 GDP, so one must put things into perspective. Besides, we had better-than-expected jobless claims at 751K.

With regards to today’s hot trade of the day, shorting the British Pound against the almighty Japanese Yen was one of the best trades one could have found in the previous European session. One would have been pairing the strength of the Yen against the neutral performance of the Pound, which when combined had resulted in a firm bearish trend to exploit in the pair off both the 4h and daily timeframes. A trap pattern off the 15m timeframes was the final trigger for a sizeable risk reward.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.



Insights – Hot Trade Of The Day​



In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead​



Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes​


MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection


 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
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Find my latest market thoughts

One Of The Busiest Weeks Of The Year​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

I find it very fitting to call this unfolding week one of the busiest weeks of the year as now being upon us with the celebration of the US general election, alongside the RBA, the FOMC and the BoE policy meetings. If that wasn’t enough, the market has the added complexity of how to factor all in within a context of a worsening COVID-19 trend globally that has been many countries toughening up their positions in lockdown policies.

In terms of G8 FX performance, with incessant risk-off dynamics for most of last week, the likes of the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen were hands down the main beneficiaries while the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and the Euro, the latter driven by a more dovish ECB, were the underperformers. The Pound, the Kiwi and the Swissy continue to navigate this risk aversion storm in better fashion.

Over the weekend, there were a couple of important developments out of the UK. Firstly, PM Johnson announced tougher lockdown measures. Meanwhile, there appears to have been progress in the UK-EU trade talks. According to Bloomberg, “officials are zeroing in on a solution to break the eight-month long deadlock over one of the biggest obstacles (fisheries) to their planned trade deal.”

On the US election front, the latest updates when aggregating the biggest betting sites point at the chances of a Biden win around 65% vs Trump’s 35%. These stats, however, tend to be quite biased based on what’s been happening in reality vs leading the future reality. Regardless of the outcome, what’s almost a given is that the levels of volatility will remain very elevated with the VIX already giving us a sense of it by shooting to 40.00 last week as US stocks sold off in earnest amid the huge uncertain landscape.

When it comes to the hot trade of the day, I wanted to emphasize the GBP/AUD support area I underscored last week as a very sensitive area where buy-side commitment may re-emerge following the formation of a trap pattern in the 4-hour timeframe. In the video below, I go through an explanation of what made this area an excellent location to expect a rebound the way we did see in this pair.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.

Insights – Hot Trade Of The Day​



In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead​




Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes​


MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection

 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

US Election Playbook: What You Need To Know​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


US Election Playbook

The US election day is finally upon us. In this article, I will touch on the most essential snippets of information that as a trader you must take into account as it relates to financial and market risks. It is no secret that the outcome of the US election and most importantly and the different combinations of outcomes will create huge spikes in volatility, so as traders, we must be prepared for it.

So, let’s visit the first pressing question as a trader you may have. At what time is the volatility likely to ramp up? Based on the composition of the voting system and the timing of announced results per state, it won’t be until at least 3pm AEDT (Sydney time) on Wednesday that the market will really start to come to life as to corroborate or start to negate the head start that Joe Biden has got in the opinion polls, which points at a relatively comfortable victory of the Democrat candidate.

It’s typically around that range of 3pm to 3.30pm AEDT that a key swing state such as North Carolina could move the needle to clear up whether or not Biden is headed for a win or Trump can challenge him. Another key state that at a slightly later time will also play a huge role includes the state of Florida, with a tendency too report quite early. The more the market finds out what way the balance tilts in the key swing states, the more conviction of movements we’ll see.

As the volatility increases, be reminded that a major market risk one must account for and accommodate accordingly as part of one’s trading strategy will be the widening of spreads. As a result, traders should adjust stop loss orders in line with these unfolding dynamics. This phenomenon of spreads widening will occur as a result of higher than normal volatility but can also occur as as a byproduct of low liquidity, which won’t be the case around the US election. The bottom line is that as a trader, you must be able to anticipate this tremendous increase in volatility in order to adjust the size of your trading positions, the risk per trade and the type of risk management you consider. Failing to do so can significantly increase the financial risks markedly.

Another risk that I’d add within the category of market risk around the outcome of the US election includes the yo-yo/whippy type moves with multiple shifts in directional bias within a relatively short span of time as the market figures out the most plausible scenarios. It’s going to be hours of frenzy and most likely two-way street price action which means the market will hardly make up its mind and go straight into one direction right off the gates but instead dynamic swings in both directions should predominantly dominate proceedings until the market can assert with a sufficient degree of confidence that a specific outcome is a near certainty. Note, the more confidence in a concrete result (blue wave, Trump victory, etc.), the more conviction by the real money (non-leveraged funds) to enter the market and create the real trends that last.

An added element of uncertainty this time around is the fact that given the huge numbers of in-mail voting due to the global pandemic, the risk of the US election results in certain key states being contested is an additional risk factor not to be ruled out. If any of the candidate were to go down this route, the uncertainty may drag on and with it the looming clouds of risk-off dynamics. There’s actually been a growing school of thought that an actual sealed outcome alone may be a stimulant for markets to rally. In this election in particular, there is definitely an increased number of variables one must account for. Hence, more than ever, keeping one’s eyes not just to price action but to Twitter feed and TV networks for breaking news can be helpful. Do not take for granted the first movers’ advantage even if it’d be right away manifested via price action.

By looking at the implied volatility in some of the major pairs in Forex such as the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or USD/JPY, the implied market movements range from 200-250 pips in lower vol pairs such as the Euro or Aussie vs the USD to as high as 400 pips in a pair like the British Pound against the USD. Again, playing with your normal stop loss size when the volatility to be expected is so high would be a suicidal strategy to adopt. Stay dynamic and adapt to the ebbs and flows.

With the above elements to consider out of the way, what’s the consensus market reaction based on the different number of combinations? Let’s analyze the scenarios:

BLUE WAVE

This outcome refers to Democrats taking control of both the House and the Senate. I’d consider this one to be the most market-friendly outcome given that it implies a strong government would be in place with the ability to pass policies without major hiccups or obstructions unlike what we’ve seen in the last 2 years, which based on opinion polls and better markets appears to be the most likely scenario even if the odds have been narrowing. What this outcome would mean is an almost immediate fiscal stimulus package alongside high spending and deficits. In FX, the US dollar and the Japanese Yen should take a back seat in benefit of commodity-linked and emerging market currencies with the Chinese Yuan and the Mexican peso set to thrive. This scenario would likely be music to the ears of perma bulls in Gold amid broad-based USD weakness and further stimulus. Stocks would also fly. The intensity on how hard these assets run higher may also depend on the margin of victory by Biden in the Senate.

BLUE TIDE:

This scenario is one that I’d personally see as quite possible even if betting sites are telling us it is not as high odds as a full-blown blue wave. The consensus assigns a negative reaction in risk dynamics should both parties have a split of power in the House vs the Senate. A Republican majority in the Senate means that any Biden legislative initiates would get almost immediately blocked. Besides, in the short run, a large fiscal stimulus package would be complicated. Expect the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen to go one way (up) and stocks to head in the opposite direction with the allure towards commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) compromised too. The price of Gold may also see a bearish movement mainly driven by the run to the safe haven appeal of the USD even if the precious metal should still be bid across a wider range of currencies on risk-off flows.

RED REVOLUTION:​

If Trump takes control of the House and the Senate it means less stimulus – not the $3tn Heroes Act – The fact that Trump will go back to policies of US exceptionalism, further deglobalisation, and remove fears of regulations or taxation is likely to lead to a strong reaction to the upside in both US stock valuation and the US Dollar. I can envision nominal yields down and real yields more negative with gold also jumping higher and the Yen put under strong pressure amid the rise in equities. The reinvigoration of Trump in the Senate will see him return to the strong rhetoric against China and Russia, which would tend to be negative for emerging markets and spark USD demand. I don’t see the Aussie doing that well in this environment near-term. This would also be the worse scenario for Gold near term.

STATUS QUO:

This outcome would be a repeat of what we’ve seen in the last 2 years with a gridlock to pass new legislative measures, which has been well exemplified via the constant back and forth to ink a pandemic-led fiscal stimulus deal. On this outcome, the fiscal support eventually agreed won’t be as big as the market initially hoped for. I can see how under this scenario of divided powers in the House vs the Senate, equities would come under pressure as the market flocks off to places such as the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The price of Gold would likely be suppressed by the strength in the US Dollar. The fact that this outcome also equates to think about further deglobalisation should see the Chinese Yuan impacted by depreciating quite strongly.


In this video analysis below I dissect the information above with more visuals. The video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.


 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Uncertainty Around The US Election​


Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The main take-away from the US election day is that the Democratic nominee Biden is edging closer to the victory even if it’s not over until it’s over with votes still being counted. What really matters though is what going on beneath the surface as Trump’s team has initiated varies lawsuits to re-count some of the results in key swing states.

At this point, what we know is that an increasing number of TV networks are projecting Biden as the ultimate winner of the Presidential race. The democratic representative needs 270 electorate college votes and he is just a handful shy to get there. What’s going to be a nail-biter and will likely drag the uncertainty for weeks is the fact that Trump is determined to fight tooth and nail in what’s arguably the key phase which includes challenging the entire legal and electoral system. Is the market underestimating this risk?

Judging by the action we’ve seen in the likes of US stocks, where the Nasdaq index is up over 5% and the S&P 500 half that sum, there is definitely a firm degree of confidence. This happens even if the fundamental backdrop of a Biden victory with a Republican-controlled Senate would make the next term an era not characterized by as much fiscal stimulus as initially thought given the gridlocks to be expected.

What’s most interesting is to see stocks recovering its footing in style despite the battle that is about to unfold by re-counting votes in key swing states such as Michigan or Pennsylvania. If we assume as true that markets don’t like uncertainty, the rise in the likes of equities or the commodity-linked currencies means that the market is still holding onto the hopes of Trump retrieving the Presidency or perhaps the market just thinks that the opposition to Biden’s tax rises somehow offsets the lack of a big fiscal stimulus?

The above are obviously just suppositions that as a trader helps you stay in tune with the ongoing narratives at play. However, as I always stress, what really matters is what price action is telling us and how the right interpretation in the psychology of money flows can translate into potential opportunities to make money, even in such an unpredictable and volatile day as the US election outcome was. To prove this point, I’d like to highlight as part of the hot trade of the day a 4-hour Trap pattern setup available in the AUD/USD.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.



Insights – Hot Trade Of The Day​



In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.


Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead​



Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!


Important Footnotes​


MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection



 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Find my latest market thoughts

The USD Is Taken To The Woodshed​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan Of The Markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The US Dollar had the worst performance in over 6 months on the aftermath of the US election as ‘risk on’ grips the market. The Australian Dollar, the price of metals and the equity market expressed a completely different picture as the ongoing appreciation doesn’t abate.

I must emphasize that the huge movement we’ve seen in the US Dollar occurred very much in isolation with other currencies linked to ‘risk off’ flows such as the Japanese Yen or the Swiss Franc holding their ground in a much firmer fashion despite the risk-seeking dynamics.

As a reminder for readers, the outcome of the US election has not yet been called, even if Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, is nearing the much needed 270 electoral votes amid the unsubstantiated and contradictory allegations by Trump of stopping and re-counting votes in some key swing states in a clear move out of desperation.

As Politico reports, “Joe Biden is ready to give a victory speech. But he needs just one more victory in one of three too-close-to-call states where they’re still counting ballots: Nevada, Pennsylvania or Georgia.”

Sandwiched in between, this last Thursday, we saw the Federal Reserve updating the markets with its latest monetary policy measures and guess what? To no one’s surprise, certainly not to me, the statement as part of the FOMC was literally a carbon copy of the previous one as the Central Bank wants to first see clarity out of the US election.

The fragility of the US Dollar was exploitable since the early stages of the European session. To prove this point, as part of the selection of the hot trade of the day, my attention goes to the New Zealand vs the US Dollar market, where once again the formation of a trap pattern became the precursor to jump on board of a trade that has so far travelled almost 5:1 risk rewards. The video below breaks it down.

If you found this fundamental summary helpful, just click here to share it!


Hot Trade Of The Day​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below will further elaborate on the logic behind the trade.

Insights – Hot Trade Of The Day​



In this video analysis I dissect the information above. Ultimately, it is the traders’ call, via a set of entries thoroughly backtested, to enter and manage a position, hence the video is intended as educational in nature and not financial advice.

If you found the content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here! Besides, if you have a suggestion on extra instruments for me to cover, reach out to me via Twitter.



Recent Economic Indicators & Events Ahead​





Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video I produced. The indicator allows you to save time, avoid mistakes. It’s spot on!

Important Footnotes​


MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video I lay out the elements I look into to call trend directions.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Strong run of capital outflows in the USD​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

As the US Presidential Election got called in favor of the Democratic representative Joe Biden, by most media outlets, the US Dollar continues to plummet across the board.

USD under pressure

When analyzing the currency on an equally-weighted basis, it can be safely stated that the USD has been underperforming by losing nearly 2% vs its main peers. And no matter which USD cross you look at, each and every one communicates the same story – USD sellers have a clear upper hand.

Technical prospects

After dissecting the technical merits, I found the EUR/USD testing bids near-by 1.19, which represents the highest levels since September 17th this year.

What I found extremely interesting is that in the last 24 hours, after applying my proprietary trap traders pattern setup, I could hold a long exposure in the EUR/USD.

If you take a peek at the GBP/USD, you will definitely see a positive change – the moment you can break and accept beyond 1.3180 (highest on October 21st) and key technical inflection point.

The measures of momentum (SMT indicator) and structures (Fractals Breakout Indicator) both communicate confidence and great expectations in the GBP/USD. The shallow dip through 1.31, last Friday, was convincingly rejected off the 13-wma, which reinforces the positive outlook.

As I shift attention toward the commodity-linked currencies, the technical prospects look even more compelling. The AUD/USD delivered a price action that broke a key structural level at 0.7150.

The US Dollar is similarly ‘gripping’ when cross-checked against other commodity-linked currencies, the NZD or the CAD, where both are technically positioned to keep ensuring further gains.

What about the USD positioning against the Japanese Yen or Gold? This is where the weakness of the USD lies. The strong rise in the US equities since the Election Day has had no effects in slowing down the depreciation of the USD against these two assets. This action seals the notion that what we are witnessing is a strong run of capital outflows in the USD.


Hot trade of the day​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section, I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength, based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below, further elaborates on the logic behind the trade.

Insights – Hot trade of the day​



In this video analysis I dissect the hot trade of the day. A fully-fledged trading course, including lessons on how to trade this pattern, will soon be available via Global Prime Trading Academy website. While the video is intended as educational and not financial advice, it portrays the power of trading the pattern the right way.

If you found our content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here!


Recent economic indicators & events ahead​



Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.

Important footnotes​


MARKET STRUCTURES

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

MARKET MOMENTUM

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. Watch this video where I go through the layout and all elements of the Discord room in great detail.

PROJECTION TARGETS

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection
 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Strong true risk dynamics emboldens financial markets​

The overarching theme driving markets, without a doubt, the breaking news that Pfizer, in partnership with BioNTech’s experimental covid-19 vaccine, were able to successfully complete stage three of the COVID-19 vaccine trials with an ‘extraordinary’ 90% success rate. The immediate reaction was to buy risk assets aggressively.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the markets​



To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 FX basket.

The overarching theme driving markets, without a doubt, includes the breaking news that Pfizer, in partnership with BioNTech’s experimental COVID-19 vaccine, were able to successfully complete stage three of the vaccine trials with an ‘extraordinary’ 90% success rate. The immediate reaction was to buy risk assets aggressively.

True ‘risk on’ dynamics

The market has been emboldened by a sense of strong risk appetite. This type of environment refers to the appreciation of asset classes considered of riskier nature due to higher yields or linked to the prices of commodities and/or global growth prospects.

This means the Australian Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar or the Canadian Dollar were all bought in earnest in the last 24 hours. The main loser was the Japanese Yen, which tends to fare poorly in an environment where investors become much more ‘risk hungry’.

The prices of Gold, the Swiss Franc or the Euro were also dragged lower amid the major rebalance of money flows. The market, as an effective discounting mechanism, appears to finally and truly believe that the vaccine news is a real inflection point and as such, it has adjusted its expectations toward a new normal into the future in present time.

The USD finds demand

While it may come as a shock to many, I wasn’t surprised to see the US Dollar finding strong demand flows. As I pointed out in yesterday’s conversation with Greg Rubin, the structure in the USD index (equally-weighted basis) was hinting at buy-side flows.

As I argued with Greg, the index had not only reached a major level of support in line with my teachings of a 100% projection target, but this level was also in perfect alignment with this year’s low in the index. Therefore, ahead of time, I built a technical narrative that made me way more cautious to keep short exposure in the US Dollar on Monday.

The USD still shows a structurally bearish pattern in the higher time frames. The recovery we’ve seen in the world’s reserve currency still occurs as part of a contrarian and corrective pullback. Should the ‘risk on’ dynamics extend, an outcome I don’t discard, it will not be the most conducive contextual setting for the currency.

In today’s hot trade video I will be walking you through the long-side opportunities in the NZD/USD. Since the US presidential outcome this is the market where a bullish trend has emerged. What I do like about it, is how wonderfully it has respected the discount line. With 0.68 now broken, I can foresee further buying once this level gets retested amid the strong confluence found.


Hot trade of the day​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab‘. In this section, I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity to buy on weakness or sell on strength, based on the higher timeframes outlook. My video analysis below, further elaborates on the logic behind the trade.


In this video analysis I dissect the hot trade of the day. A fully-fledged trading course, including lessons on how to trade this pattern, will soon be available via Global Prime Trading Academy website. While the video is intended as educational and not financial advice, it portrays the power of trading the pattern the right way.

If you found our content valuable, give us a share by just clicking here!


Recent economic indicators & events ahead​



Source: Forexfactory

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.

Important footnotes​


Market structure

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicenter to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

Market momentum

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted for years the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be obtained via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. Watch this video where I go through the layout and all elements of the Discord room in great detail.

Projection targets

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection

 
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