Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

IvanGlobalPrime

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GBP Weakness Main Theme​


The main mover last Friday was once again the suspect swinging the wildest as of late, that is, the British Pound. A couple of negative headlines around Brexit led to another strong round of selling pressure as the market comes to terms about the ongoing stalemate between the EU and the UK in order to reach a Brexit trade deal.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

forex trends To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The main mover last Friday was once again the British Pound. A couple of negative headlines around Brexit led to another strong round of selling pressure as the market comes to terms about the ongoing stalemate between the EU and the UK in order to reach a Brexit trade deal.

While the EU chief Brexit negotiator confirmed that he will be headed to London for further talks, what remains clear is that there is still a major impasse. Dominic Raab told the BBC over the weekend this week is most likely when the talks enter the “last real major week”, noting that an agreement remains possible if the EU shows “pragmatism”.

As traders, what this means, is that the British Pound is still the market offering the best volatility prospects to trade. On the contrary, the volatility spikes that are to come remain quite a risky business for those traders utilising tight stops amid the risk of slippage in order fillings due to the evaporation of liquidity and poorer competitive and riskier conditions for market makers.

Aside from the weakness in the Pound, the other currencies worth highlighting include the Euro, the Aussie and the New Zealand Dollar. They became the outperformers in a slow trading environment last Friday amid the post Turkey-hangover in what for many involved in financial markets traditionally represents a long weekend in observance of Thanksgiving.

Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.

Economic indicators & events​

Source: Forexfactory. If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.


Important footnotes​


Market structure

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicentre to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

Market momentum

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be accessed via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video, I go through the layout and all elements of the Discord room in great detail.

Projection targets

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection.
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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The USD benefits from month-end re-balancing flows​


Trading the Forex market in the last 24 hours, especially around the London fix, involved higher-than-usual erratic volatility, on account of month-end re-balancing flows. Although the currency that saw the most aggressive turnaround from its lacklustre performance up until the London fix was the US Dollar.


Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


Trading the Forex market in the last 24 hours, especially around the London fix, involved higher-than-usual erratic volatility, on account of month-end re-balancing flows. The British Pound ended as the top performing currency aided by news that the EU negotiating team announced that will stay on in London for more talks in the coming days.

Remember, we are at a crossroads when it comes to the Brexit trade deal talks. This week appears to be the one that makes it or breaks it, therefore, one must buckle up for spikes in GBP volatility. The latest we know, other than the EU/UK negotiators extending talks, is that according to Reuters, citing an EU source, “massive divergences” remain on three main areas.

Often, when re-balancing flows are the main attributable source of volatility, fundamentals take a backseat. Aside from the Pound, that’s exactly what eventuated on Monday and the reason why currencies moved the way they did. Remember, usually portfolio managers will either leave or give orders to dealing desks to be transacted at the fixing time and price. Therefore, this results, at times, in moves that don’t necessarily have neither a technical nor fundamental logic but rather is all about tweaks in currency risk exposure by global portfolio managers.

Amid this backdrop, the currency that saw the most aggressive turnaround from its lacklustre performance up until the London fix was the US Dollar. The currency was boosted, especially against the Euro, resulting in the pair retracing sharply away from the 1.20 round number. The buying of Yens late in the day or the selling of Swiss Francs were also notable highlights. Be reminded, these heavy flows rarely change the underlying direction of the market, bullish in the case of the EUR/USD, but as seen, it can definitely cause serious wobbles.


Hot trade of the day​

In this section, I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity based on the concepts I teach. My video analysis below elaborates on the logic behind the trade.

Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.






Source: Forexfactory

Important footnotes​


Market structure

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicentre to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

Market momentum

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be accessed via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video, I go through the layout and all elements of the Discord room in great detail.

Projection targets

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection.
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Acute Flow Imbalances In European vs Risk-Off Currencies​

The Euro and its correlated twin the Swiss Franc saw steady demand on Tuesday. The strength was initiated at the London open only to accelerate into and post the London fix. The breach of 1.20 in the EUR/USD snowballed into further broad-based USD weakness, with the Kiwi and the Pound also capitalising in the miseries of the USD...

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The Euro and its correlated twin the Swiss Franc saw steady demand on Tuesday. The strength was initiated at the London open only to accelerate into and post the London fix. The breach of 1.20 in the EUR/USD snowballed into further broad-based USD weakness, with the Kiwi and the Pound also capitalising in the miseries of the USD and the JPY as stocks stay buoyant.

The Forex market is moving and trending nicely once again. The flow imbalances in the European currencies (EUR, GBP CHF) against risk-off associated fiat the likes of the USD and JPY are notable and easily visible via the strong trends when matching the first group of currencies vs the second one. Check my video analysis for a list of markets to be fixated on today.

When it comes to the identification of the trapped traders pattern, which is the entry mechanism at the core of my recently released trading course, there were no trades meeting the TT criteria to enter. A good does of patience is required to trade this strategy by always letting the market to show its hand and come to us. However, in such a one-way directional markets in European currencies vs the weakest links, I ended up with a nice long entry opportunity in the EUR/AUD early in the London session.

In terms of news events for the following 24h, there are no fundamental adjustments scheduled to take place. The only event worth noting is the week-long testimony by Fed Chairman Powell and Secretary Mnuchin on the CARES act before the House Financial Services Committee, but as demonstrated through Monday and Tuesday, it is unlikely that we could anticipate at what time in particular they may make comments that move the needle and cause volatility. As such, it shouldn’t affect the way I trade or management any positions that I have open.


Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.

Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.




Source: Forexfactory

Important footnotes​

Market structure

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicentre to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

Market momentum

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be accessed via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video, I go through the layout and all elements of the Discord room in great detail.

Projection targets

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection.
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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What Markets Are Trending Today?​


The Euro and the Swiss Franc continue to be the markets where most of the buying flows have concentrated as of late. We had really solid demand in these two markets since the London session, a replica of the dynamics seen through Wednesday as well. The Australian Dollar joined the bullish party this time following a major turnaround early doors in the US session.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The Euro and the Swiss Franc continue to be the markets where most of the buying flows have concentrated as of late. We had really solid demand in these two markets since the London session, a replica of the dynamics seen through Wednesday as well. The Australian Dollar joined the bullish party this time following a major turnaround early doors in the US session.

In terms of opportunities to capitalise on the Trapped Traders pattern I teach though the Global Prime Academy site, I identified the right formation of TTs in three markets. These included the EUR/USD, the NZD/JPY and Gold. Unfortunately, the rules of the strategy prevent us from taking trades ahead of the London session. Similarly, when trading the TT as part a trending context, if the discount line is not retested, this also makes us sit out the trades. This should have kept us away from taking trades in these markets.

Heading into Thursday, there are numerous markets that offer exceptional conditions to be predominately stalking for buy-side opportunities (watch today’s video analysis). The markets selected are a by-product of the fragility seen in the USD and the Japanese Yen, while also looking to exploit the recent strength that has erupted in the European currencies (exc the Pound).

In terms of fundamental news that may act as vol stimulants in the next 24h, I’ve singled out the OPEC+ meeting as the one to be watching that may cause wilder swings not only in the price of Oil, but that may easily spill over and affect the pricing of the Canadian Dollar given its status as a heavily-linked asset to Oil prices. However, since there is no specific time to make an announcement and leaks occur at various times, I will be treating any trading opportunity in CAD-related pairs as valid entries by letting the edge of the strategy play out.

Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.

Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​


Market structure

Markets evolve in cycles followed by a period of distribution and/or accumulation. To understand the principles applied in the assessment of market structures, refer to this video. Fractal breakouts is at the epicentre to assist us in the analysis of chart structures.

Market momentum

In order to assess the market momentum of a particular asset, I’ve promoted the idea of using what I call the smart money tracker. The settings and the indicator can be accessed via our Discord room, where traders from all walks of life interact frequently. In this video, I go through the layout and all elements of the Discord room in great detail.

Projection targets

The usefulness of the 100% projection resides in the symmetry and harmonic relationships of market cycles. By drawing a 100% projection, you can anticipate the area in the chart where some type of pause and potential reversals in price is likely to occur, due to 1. The side in control of the cycle takes profits 2. Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players 3. These are price points where limit orders are set by market-makers. You can find out more by reading the tutorial on The Magical 100% Fibonacci Projection.
 

IvanGlobalPrime

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Relentless Supply Imbalances In The USD​

The US Dollar continues to be smacked lower mercilessly. Once again, the currency ended as the worst performer. On the flip side, the volatile Pound topped the leader board, following the sharp decline it had the prior day. This whipsawing action in the British currency comes to show how erratic the behaviour remains amid the 'crunch time'...


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The US Dollar continues to be smacked lower mercilessly. Once again, the currency ended as the worst performer. On the flip side, the volatile Pound topped the leader board, following the sharp decline it had the prior day. This whipsawing action in the British currency comes to show how erratic the behaviour remains amid the ‘crunch time’ period in the Brexit trade deal talks.

This week, unless something suddenly changes this Friday, might be one of the rare times when, due to the current market dynamics, we end up with literally no tradable TT patterns. This lack of activity is not something we can have control over. We must always let the market and the narrative via price action determine when it’s time to jump into trades. This patience to trade the TT pattern is what ultimately begets the success that one can have trading it, by recognising that letting the market come to us is a major virtue of any accomplished trader.

In terms of fundamental narratives, the main focus on Thursday was on OPEC, Brexit and US stimulus. The OPEC+ cartel struck a deal to slowly increase oil production from next month, back 500K bpd of production in Jan, Feb and March. Crude barely reacted but the market, you’d think, saw the news as welcoming for the CAD given the strong recovery off the lows. As per Brexit, ongoing problems in a few areas continue. The same can be said about the US stimulus negotiations, no breakthrough, yet the politicians are still sounding as if a deal may be struck.

Heading into this Friday, be prepared to account for the Payrolls & Unemployment data in both the US and Canada. From a practical standpoint, what this means, is that we don’t want to run into this event holding any exposure that many cause unnecessary slippage. If and when a trade is entered during the European session ahead of US NFP figures, make sure that the exposure is managed adequately by cutting and/or protecting any unnecessary risk as the closer we get to the event, the poorer the liquidity becomes. Once the dust settles post the data, the next 3h until the London close is when most opportunities can be found.


Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.

Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.




Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.



 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

The Markets Owe You Nothing, Get Over It​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


By checking the performance of currencies, what should jump out to anyone, is the out performance of the CAD after a blockbuster jobs report. This piece of fundamental data led the market to aggressively re-adjust the valuation towards the currency. On the contrary, the US jobs report can in worse than expectations by 215K jobs, causing a directionless wobble in the USD.

By analysing the currency market conditions, I am the first one to admit that the dynamics to trade the TT pattern have been far from ideal to get rewarded. While the activity in trading the strategy has too been subpar (trades more sparse) when compared to the first 9 months of the year, what has been greatly reduced is the ability to make profits.

Therefore, in today’s market report, I find it very fitting to be reminded of the following quote I read by Richard Bargh, a futures trader featured in the latest Market Wizards book. Richard nails it when stating that “opportunities are dispersed. You might have an opportunity today and then have to wait 3 months for the next one to come about. That reality is hard to accept because you want to make a steady income from trading, but in doesn’t work that way. In 2017, nearly all my profits came from two weeks in June and one day in December…”

Fortunately, the TT pattern taught through the Global Prime academy website, still provides a minimum number of trading opportunities per month. However, the reality has been that even if the criteria continues to be met in occasions to gain exposure in a number of markets, the conditions to be paid for the typical 3:1 RR targets we aim for have been rather poor.

This takes me back to the point Richard makes above. We simply cannot control these outcomes. Instead, the best we can do is to tweak our profit taking a tad to accommodate for these conditions, but most importantly, keep making ourselves available to the market until the dynamics shift in such a way that the market will, once again, reward us back. Once the type of order flow dominating the FX space becomes more fitting to exploit the TT edge, this stage shall pass and we’ll find more profit-taking consistency.

Case in point, the latest TT setup that was made available in the GBP/AUD last Friday, manifests the difficulty as of late to materialise into profitability the amount of work one puts in. This takes me to the last thought of the day that I also want to stress. Unlike other professional endeavours, when trading the markets, you will realise that hard labour doesn’t necessarily correlate with rewards. This can be frustrating for many as they feel the market owes you that profit because how much time you put in. Get over it. The market doesn’t care.

Instead, the best shot you have, whenever you see yourself whining because the market has not delivered the profit you wanted, is to come to the realisation and fully embrace the random nature of how gains ad losses are distributed. Let go of the things you can no longer control (price hitting your target) to the extend that you can your trading process. Keep focusing on the latter and always remind yourself that the upside is taken care by the market forces and that you have very little say from the moment you enter and deploy your trade management technique.


Hot trade of the day​

In this section, I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity based on the concepts I teach. My video analysis below elaborates on the logic behind the trade.



Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.

 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

UK-EU Trade Deal Down To The Wire​


Looking at the global context, the Pound continues to be the one currency driving the 'show' in FX. Its weakness, caused by a market engrossed by the heightened fears of a no trade deal, is spilling over in how erratic swings have been elsewhere. This Brexit central-theme, which now has its deadline on Wednesday, has led markets to morph into dynamics of risk off and then risk on.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


Looking at the global context, the Pound continues to be the one currency driving the ‘show’ in FX. Its wobbles, caused by a market engrossed by the heightened fears of a no trade deal, is spilling over in how erratic swings have been elsewhere. This Brexit central-theme, which now has its deadline on Wednesday, has led markets to morph into dynamics of risk off and then risk on.

Why the eventual recovery of riskier currencies and the Pound late on the day? Because, ultimately, even if the EU/UK leader’s talks broke down on Monday, with the familiar impasse in issues relating to achieve a level playing field, governance and fisheries, a new catalyst emerged that gave the market another glimpse of hope.

I am talking about the news that UK PM Johnson would be going in person to Brussels to meet face-to-face with his EU counterpart in order to achieve what is seen as a last ditch effort to narrow the differences. This headline did beget hope, and off it went the Pound, spiking to catch late sellers by surprise. Be ready for further volatile price action in the Pound.

Trading the TT or Trapped Traders pattern in such a convoluted and dicey environment has been a real challenge. I am often reminding myself of the following quote. “Money is made by mostly sitting not trading.” Even if trades are not happening that often in the TT front, one key aspect of successful trading is learning to observe and process information but do nothing.

As I told my right-hand man (Terry) as part of the TT strategy in the chatroom yesterday, “new students may not realise at first but the action of sitting out trades not only makes us cultivate the ability to be patient and disciplined, but what it also does is to makes us be better at trading that strategy. Why? Because we are constantly engaging and referring back to the rules on what does and does not qualify as a valid trade. Those who engage in this active process prime their brain due to this spaced repetition, which leads to learn the strategy intuitively and naturally.”

So, as part of the daily process to scan for the best contextual settings in order to exploit the TT setup, you can watch my conclusions below. The lack of clear drivers, the uncertainty around the Brexit trade deal and a new US fiscal stimulus, and the fact that we are quickly approaching the end of the year, are all contributors for the subpar conditions.


Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.

Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.

 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

Patience Daniel-San, Patience!​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The market remains clogged by the Brexit conundrum and that’s clearly manifested through the compression of ranges in the currency market. With the British Pound stealing the ‘show’, the rest of the currencies have been, for the most part, idle and that’s reflected in the absence of trading opportunities in line with the strategies I look to exploit.

Do you remember the movie ‘Karate Kid’? I became fascinated by it in my teenage years. I just loved that strong bone between Professor Miyagi and Daniel. Miyagi would refer to Daniel as San, which happens to be a Japanese title of respect added to a name. When Mr. Miyagi would call Daniel by “Daniel-san” he was showing that he respects Daniel with highest honor.

Why do I mention this seemingly unrelated story you may be asking? In the movie, one of the quotes that went viral was when Mr. Miyagi said, “Patience, Daniel San, Patience!” Daniel wanted to get ahead of himself by taking corners, yet Mr Miyagi’s wisdom was well encapsulated through this quote. He knew patience begets reward. In trading, the same can be said.

That quote, therefore, is very fitting to the current environment we are faced with in the Forex space. There are simply no trades to be found that would qualify as part of the TT setup that I teach in the GP Academy. The chop-fest we are experiencing in most markets is a result of market-makers taking control of the liquidity provisions amid the lack of clear drivers.

In the next 48h, however, we may see some of this vol tightness unravel. Why? Because we may see a resolution (or not) of the Brexit talks, alongside spikes of vol that will come via the BOC, the ECB, the EU Summit or the US stimulus negotiations. As per the BOC (today), the markets are expecting the BoC to stand pat even if volatility around the time of the release must be respected.

With regards to the ECB, the question is how aggressive will the ECB be on additional stimulus measures? Consensus is for TLTROs and an extra EUR600bn (+/-) being added to the PEPP bond buying programme (QE) and to extend from June 21 to at least the end of next year.


Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.

Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.




 

IvanGlobalPrime

Private
Messages
25
Find my latest market thoughts

The Aussie Stands Out In Low Vol FX​


Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The Australian Dollar and the British Pound were both propelled into higher ground in the last London morning session. But as the New York session started, the currencies’ strength gradually deflated to end up the day still well above the rest of its peers (not the case of the Pound anymore…) yet quite far off the highs made earlier on the day.

I must admit market moves remains quite modest overall, a thematic that I’ve been stressing for most of December. The fact that we are dragging on unresolved impasses such as Brexit negotiations or COVID stimulus in the US, alongside little in the way of other news or data, has really caused idleness (read low volatility) to settle in.

And it’s not like the prospects to get an immediate resolution are just around the corner. The UK and EU negotiators remain a long way from reaching a deal, while in Capital Hill, the Dems and GOP continue their brinkmanship as the COVID-19 related cases and deaths in the US worsens by the day. Even an event that had been pencilled in as a propeller of higher vol turned out to be a dud. I am referring to the Bank of Canada, after it kept rates unchanged at 0.25% and rates would likely stay unchanged through 2023.

In the next 24h, the currency to watch most closely is the Euro as the ECB meets. With regards to today’s meeting, the question is how aggressive will the ECB be on additional stimulus measures. Consensus is for TLTROs and an extra EUR600bn (+/-) being added to the PEPP bond buying programme (QE) and to extend from June 21 to at least the end of next year.

In terms of market analysis, I am particularly interested in finding long-sided trap pattern opportunities in the Australian Dollar heading into this Thursday (the video below provides insights). Similarly, I will be stripping down the currency flows via the performances of indices to spot any opportunities to spot disparities in strength vs weakness.

Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.

Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.

 

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Commodity-Linked Currencies Take Off​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


It was a great day for the likes of the commodity-linked currencies, no doubt about that. With the Aussie providing strong evidence of demand on the rise as I indicated in the last report, it was now the turn of the Kiwi and the Canadian Dollar to catch up, and gosh they did! On the flip side, the Pound was decimated while the USD (again) found no love.

The springy movements in the Forex market came courtesy of multiple drivers this time. The first and most familiar one includes the gloomy prospects for a UK-EU trade deal. A hard-line has been set for this Sunday even-though there is no guarantee that politicians won’t do what they do best, that is, kicking the can down the road by extending talks beyond this date.

We also learned that the ECB stimulus came well within the economists’ projections, while the EU Recovery Fund was finally approved by the leaders. In the former, called the Pandemic Purchase Programme, it was beefed up by €500bn to €1,850bn and extended by 9 months until March 2022, even if Lagarde suggested it may not be needed to be used in full if a strong recovery occurs.

In terms of the US fiscal stimulus negotiations, there was no new developments to report as politicians continue to be in a gridlock state with key differences over a legal liability waiver for businesses and aid to the states. Despite the disagreements, and with the labour market showing signs of distress after the Jobless Claims report, the US stocks market found dip buyers.

Lastly, as part of the selection of the hot trade, today I want to outline two markets (AUD/CHF, AUD/USD) that gave us an excellent signal to speculate in AUD long exposure. Remember, patience to let the market comes to us eventually tends to pay off and that’s exactly what this first half of December has been about in order to find good quality TT pattern as these two trades were.


Hot trade of the day​

In this section, I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity based on the concepts I teach. My video analysis below elaborates on the logic behind the trade.


Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.



 
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