Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Find my latest market thoughts

The Pound Rules ‘The FX Show’​

For over a decade Ivan has been dedicating his time to trading the Forex market. He is highly active in promoting ways other people can increase their profitability rate and reduce the chances of error. Follow Ivan's in-depth technical analysis insights to learn how to trade the markets the right way.


Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The Sterling has been given a major boost at the open of the Asian session as the UK and the EU agreed to extend post-Brexit trade talks beyond Sunday following a call between leaders earlier on Sunday. In a joint statement, Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it was “responsible at this point to go the extra mile”.

Amid the absence of fundamental catalysts elsewhere, the Pound continues to dominate the headlines. The volatility around the currency is not for the faint-hearted as liquidity in the market quickly dries up each and every time that a Brexit-related headlines alters the market perception towards a deal or not deal in the trade talks. Not the safest conditions for market makers.
By going through my scan of the key movers in the currency space, aside from the perky Pound, the commodity-linked currencies have been the best movers as of late. The Euro, the Swissy and the USD are off to a rocky start this week, especially the latter, extending its multi-month downtrend whose origin dates back to the COVID-19 led spike from March this year. Quite a trend!
Aside from the Brexit talks going down to the wire, the events to pencil in the calendar for traders this week include. The European and US PMIs, alongside US retail sales, all on Wednesday. The very same day, in the American afternoon, the biggest event in the form of the FOMC takes place. Early Thursday in Asia, volatility is expected to be rich as well with the release of the New Zealand GDP data, followed soon after by the Australian jobs report. Later on Thursday, in European hours, the BoE and the SNB will meet. Lastly, on Friday, the BoJ must be accounted for.

Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.


Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.





Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.



 
Find my latest market thoughts

The USD Recovers Off Yearly Lows​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The USD staged a meritorious comeback on Monday. After plummeting to fresh year lows at an index level (equally-weighted vs G8 FX basket), there was a sudden change of script in the risk dynamics with no apparent fundamental catalyst. The run higher in the US Dollar came alongside steady demand towards the European-based currencies (EUR, CHF).

The Pound, as it’s been the case as of late, deserves its own chapter as the volatility continues to make trading the currency an affair not for the faint-hearted. The Sterling surged at the open of the Asian session as speculative bets re-adjusted to the news of further Brexit trade discussions taking place but the lack of further clarity that has followed led to most post-gap gains pared.

In terms of the global context. Risk has been holding up not only due to the EU-UK agreement to keep talking but there was good news in the US where the FDA approved the Emergency Use Authorisation for the Pfizer-BioNtech covid-19 vaccine. The struggle to hang onto the early risk-on mood may be attributed to negative COVID-19 infection/lockdown news in the US and UK.

For those interested in whether or not opportunities in line with the strategies that I teach or soon will be teaching were made available in the last 24h, here is where we stood. There were no TT or trap patterns qualifying in the last 24h that I could spot. On the flip side, a few CSM (currency strength micro-mechanics) trades popped up with the demonstration of one in the video below.


Hot trade of the day​

In this section, I pick a market or several ones that presented an opportunity based on the concepts I teach. My video analysis below elaborates on the logic behind the trade.


Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.

Aside from the Brexit talks going down to the wire, the events to pencil in the calendar for traders this week include. The European and US PMIs, alongside US retail sales, all on Wednesday. The very same day, in the American afternoon, the biggest event in the form of the FOMC takes place. Early Thursday in Asia, volatility is expected to be rich as well with the release of the New Zealand GDP data, followed soon after by the Australian jobs report. Later on Thursday, in European hours, the BoE and the SNB will meet. Lastly, on Friday, the BoJ must be accounted for.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.


 
Find my latest market thoughts

The USD Recovers Off Yearly Lows​

Ivan Delgado is a decade-long Forex Trader. Feel free to follow Ivan on Youtube. Join thousands of traders who follow Ivan's insights to increase their profitability rate by learning the ins and outs of how to read and trade financial markets. Ivan has you covered with in-depth technical market analysis to help you turn the corner.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


If you are looking for high volatility, there continues to be no better place than the Sterling. In the last 24h, the currency shot up amid the endless twists and turns in Brexit negotiations. December 31st is the deadline but an extension beyond that date can not be fully ruled out either. I really hope I am wrong and we see a Brexit resolution this month.

Be mindful that if we head into year-end with the outcome being a 50/50 show, the volatility we’ve seen in the Pound may look paltry compared to what’s to come as liquidity dissipates. By then, many investors would be away from their desks with market making algos deployed much more sparsely given the low liquid conditions. As usual, one must adapt to the new developments but it definitely looks like we are headed down to the wire for a deal or no deal and therefore risk to hold GBP exposure over the Christmas period is very high.

When it comes to the US Dollar, with the 2-day FOMC meeting underway, the currency performed very poorly yet again. The expectations are for a no change to the Fed funds rate today, with the rate expected to remain at 0.00-0.25% until at least 2023. As per QE prospects, any further stimulus would likely come from a change to its forward guidance or in the pace of purchases.

Ahead of the FOMC outcome, we also have a busy calendar in Europe with preliminary December PMIs released. The US will also see its own series of PMIs published ahead of the FOMC. It’s also worth noticing of some change in fundamental valuations by the NZD as we get the the New Zealand government releasing its Half-Year Fiscal, Economic Update (HYEFU).

On Tuesday, we also learned that the US FDA determined Moderna’s COVID19 vaccine to be “highly effective”. This means the approval is immediate and may be ready for use by next week. This encouraging news come on the back of the development by Pfizer/BioNtech of its own vaccine with the rollout so far going smooth news sources report.

Furthermore, at last, the electoral college voting process was completed on Tuesday, publicly declaring President elect Biden as the winner of the US election. The main task for Biden once in office will be to tackle the record levels of Covid cases, deaths and hospitalizations. What’s more, with Christmas around the corner, the prospects of a worsening situation are definitely a big risk.


Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.


 
Find my latest market thoughts

A Choppy Affair, USD Still Unloved​

In the last 24h, the level of flow imbalances in the Forex market has gone down a notch. The Sterling takes the podium once again as the best performing currency even if the gap it's opened up against the G8 FX peers is minimal. The CAD, meanwhile, is the exception with sellers overwhelmingly in charge.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


In the last 24h, since I last sat down to write my take-away in the marketplace, the level of flow imbalances in the Forex market has gone down a notch. The Sterling takes the podium once again as the best performing currency even if the gap opened up against the G8 FX peers was minimal. The CAD, meanwhile, is the exception with sellers overwhelmingly in charge.

In terms of the fundamental drivers playing a role in the last movements seen, this is what the script looked like. Early in Asia, the New Zealand Dollar was pressured lower in a move that dragged on through the London session. This occurred despite the release of the half-yearly update from the NZ Treasury saw GDP forecasts boosted and that for the peak unemployment rate lowered.

As Europe came online, we learned some encouraging news out of Europe, with the positive French and German PMI prints for December. The Euro and the Swiss Franc, which often move in lockstep, reaped the most benefits as algo-buying activity followed suit in the immediate aftermath. However, we failed to see follow-through demand.

The bullish moves in the EUR or the CHF proved legless, and certainly didn’t dispute the dominance of the Pound since early this week as hopes of a trade deal have definitively been brought back to be the forefront as the default narrative the market is buying into. Negotiations between the EU and the UK will likely stretch into the weekend again.

Lastly, the one even we were all waiting for, even if the chances to see sustained volatility were pretty slim, came in the form of the FOMC. After all said and done, it proved to be a rather muffled affair. The lack of any new action from the FOMC was well reflected in how the market reacted. After an initial knee-jerk response in the US dollar, vol ended up being short-lived and legless. Fed’s Chairman Powell reiterated for the zillionth time that the Central Bank will remain in hyper-dovish mode with no rush whatsoever to raise rates.

When it comes to trading opportunities, there was a phenomenal TT structure to play long CHF/JPY in Europe that ended up being a scratch trade. As I shift gears to the merits of a few selected currency pairs that currently offer for the best contextual settings to find opportunities, the video below invites you into my thoughts of the market for today.


Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.



Economic indicators & events
If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.



Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.



 
Find my latest market thoughts

USD Technicals: Huge Monthly Confluence​


In today’s write-up, I want to solely concentrate on the technicals of the world’s reserve currency. Where the USD index (equally-weighted vs G8 FX) has landed, the way it’s gotten there (in terms of the volatility expansion seen), and the structure it’s formed, all suggest to me we may be in for a resurgence of USD buy-side flows this January.


Let’s get started…


Chart of the day​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The chart above portrays the USD index (equally-weighted vs G8 FX)


Often times there is this constant debate. What matters the most, technicals or fundamentals? My personal stance in the subject is that while the latter is critical to understand the ‘whys’ of long-term trends, it is the technicals that show us the road map to get there, in other words, the ‘hows’.

With that out of the way, in today’s write-up I want to solely concentrate on the technicals of the world’s reserve currency. Where the USD index (equally-weighted vs G8 FX) has landed, the way it’s gotten there (in terms of the volatility expansion seen) and the structure it’s formed, all suggest to me we may be in for a resurgence of USD buy-side flows this January.

These are the reads I am getting in the USD index from a monthly chart perspective:

  • The index is testing what’s arguably been the most determinant inflection point since the GFC in 2008.
  • Every time this area has been tested, without exceptions, a major trend change has followed.
  • The area is confluent with not one but two 100% projection targets. These measures are depicted via green arrows in the chart above.
  • If history is any indication, January is by a large margin the best performing month of the year for the USD index (data since 1982).
  • The over-extension to the downside has reached a 2-standard deviation (ATR-based) away from its central mean (13ema off the monthly chart).

Analysis of the USD index​

In my video analysis below I lay out the rationale that leads me to think there are significant risks for bullish price action in the USD in coming months.


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’.



 
Find my latest market thoughts

Demand Explosion In Growth-Linked FX​

This morning, as I open my charts, the first thing that strikes me is the strength of the antipode currencies and the Canadian Dollar, a group of currencies that are usually defined as commodity/growth-linked.

Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


This morning, as I open my charts, the first thing that strikes me is the strength of the antipode currencies and the Canadian Dollar, a group of currencies that are usually defined as commodity/growth-linked.

On the contrary, the US Dollar was without a doubt the currency that suffered the most the consequences of very suitable conditions for the redistribution of incoming capital into equities/commodities after Tuesday’s sell-off.

Allow me to open up brackets here. Why do we call it commodity/growth-linked you may be asking? Because these are currencies from economies which economic health is sensitive to changes in commodity prices. The ‘growth’ term must also be emphasized because when prospects for global growth become rosier, commodities tend to outperform.

Now, let me shift gears very briefly into economic news. There were three news making headlines that I will briefly touch on. Firstly, OPEC agreed to raise production by 75K bpd in Feb and March. Secondly, the grim news that in the UK they continue to hit record COVID-19 numbers with a total tally of 60,916 cases. Lastly, the ISM December manufacturing index came at 60.7 vs 56.7 expected.

Be reminded that at a fundamental level, despite monitoring news won’t move the needle in the identification of trading opportunities, it’s very useful to be in tune with the narratives that at times may be driving markets. As is well known, I do treat high-impact fundamental news with respect as some can temporarily ratchet up volatility, which has direct implications to time trade entries and adjust the management of some open positions.

So, back to today’s contextual setting, what does the explosion in demand towards commodity-linked FX mean? It implies a renewed set of potential ‘trapped traders’ trading opportunities might be in the offing as flow imbalances become more apparent. The beauty of this trading approach, taught via our academy website, is that through the analysis of any chart, one can quickly decipher via momentum and structures, where opportunities may reside.

Case in point, heading into Wednesday’s trading, we’ve transitioned from an absence of markets to trade to over 15 that now meet the contextual pre-conditions to be tradable via TT setups in line with the established trends. The selection of these markets (watch video) is simply a by-product of identifying the most acute flow imbalances through the analysis of chart structures, there is no other secret sauce, other than complete ownership of how to read them.

Forget about being bombarded with an endless slew of news, following so-called gurus, or anything else that may shadow your objective judgement. What’s important is that you stick to a set of strategies that you truly absorb, learn, interiorize and apply with consistency. Remember, we find ourselves in a suitable position to ramp up activity now.


Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts such as momentum, market structures or order flow to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.


Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.





Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’ while the second course is about ‘CURRENCY STRENGTH MICRO-MECHANICS’


 
Find my latest market thoughts

Antipodeans Keep Stealing The Spotlight​

The Antipodean currencies continue to crusade through unstoppable as the overall performance of the Forex indices shown in the chart above clearly depicts. Both the AUD and NZD keep moving in tandem finding no rivalry.


Let’s get started…


Scan of the Forex market​

To see an expanded version, right-click and select ‘open link in new tab’. The indices show the performance of a currency vs a G8 Forex basket. Indicators are available to use these measures via Tradingview and MT4.


The Antipodean currencies continue to crusade through unstoppable as the overall performance of the Forex indices shown in the chart above clearly depicts. Both the AUD and NZD keep moving in tandem finding no rivalry.

What’s interesting about the current flows into FX this first week of the year is the technical cracks we are witnessing mainly attributable to such heavy demand flows into the Antipodeans while the rest of FX weakens or chops around.

As one matches the Antipodeans vs the weakest links such as the US Dollar or the Japanese Yen, the type of one-way street trends that are developing here are a thing of beauty. An AUD is paid at 0.78 USD now, highest since Feb ’18.

The current market context is characterized by strong risk appetite as portrayed via the skyrocketing of global equity indices. What’s more, it happens at a time when commodity assets are also thriving as the Reuters CRB index exhibits. This environments makes up for an ideal backdrop possible to join the bid in both the AUD and the NZD.

From a macro perspective, we should not forget that it has become blatantly clear that the COVID-19 crisis is being handle much more successfully in the far east than in the Western-hemisphere DM (developed market) economies. What this translates into is that countries like China face brighter prospects of growth heading into 2021. And we all know that both the AUD and the NZD act as excellent proxies of the overall health of the Big Panda’s economy.

With this introduction to the state of affairs in the currency space, let’s now jump into the analysis of the charts…


Analysis of the Forex trends​

In my video analysis below I use concepts taught in the brand new Academy website such as momentum or market structures to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.


Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.





Source: Forexfactory


Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’ while the second course is about ‘CURRENCY STRENGTH MICRO-MECHANICS’


 
Find my latest market thoughts

Trading Plan: The Best Guide To Build One​

You must see the creation of your very own trading plan as a blueprint that harmonizes in the most concise and descriptive manner all the rules that will govern your trading. A trading plan is like an outlined to-do list of all your trading activities.

trading plan

This is an article that has been re-purposed as a ‘trading guide’ from Global Prime’s academy courses.

Without a trading plan to trade financial markets, sooner or later, it all falls apart.

Those that are serious enough about trading recognize the importance of working out all the fine details of a trading plan that will lay the foundation to get from where you are to where you want to be.

You must see the creation of your very own trading plan as a blueprint that harmonizes in the most concise and descriptive manner all the rules that will govern your trading. A trading plan is like an outlined to-do list of all your trading activities.

Before I continue though, allow me to make the important distinction between a trading plan and a trading system. The latter entails the set of conditions that will lead to an entry or an exit in the market, while a trading plan is the umbrella under which all the components of your trading are included, from the system, risk management, etc.

Why Do We Need A Trading Plan?​

As an analogy, when we drive a car on the road, we must constantly abide by traffic rules in order to harmonize certain behaviors for every situation we are faced with. From stopping at a red traffic light, slowing down when at a pedestrian crossing, use snow chains in certain weather conditions, etc.

When trading, unlike driving, there are no rules other than the one we set for ourselves. What this means is that without a frame of reference that controls our actions, it can become very chaotic and our behavior largely inconsistent.

On top of that, since trading is such a mind game that involves money on the line, it can be very draining for one’s brain and cause irrational decisions without a plan of action. This is yet another reason why you want to be absolutely 100% certain of how you will proceed in each and every one of the thousands and thousands of situations you will encounter as a trader.

We must avoid by all means disorder from dominating our trading. After all, lack of discipline and inconsistency is the number one enemy of any trader. The saying “if you fail to plan, you’ve already planned to fail” couldn’t be more true. Trading is a business, so it must treat it as such.

The mastery in becoming mechanical on your trading actions is directly linked to your chances of success. When we drive our car, our behavior cannot deviate from the very rigid traffic rules or we might get ourselves in trouble, right? You must think about trading in the exact same manner. But this time, the ball is on your court, you have the control.

The Paradox Of A Plan: Make it Complexly Concise​

Here is the real challenge when creating a trading plan. It must be written with the greatest amount of detail yet keeping it as brief as possible, preferably to a 1 or 2 pages. Now, this may not be achieved at the very beginning, but it should certainly be your aim as your skill sets improve and you gather more experience.

Why is that? Quite simply, because a plan is meant to be re-visited every single day ahead of your trading. Imagine how daunting it can be if one has to go through 10 pages. The clear risk is that one will eventually refrain from referring to it and that’s an irresponsible way to run your business.

The natural evolution will be for you to gradually shrink the length of the text/description of all areas in your trading plan to make it digestible and practical to the most critical aspects as you ingrain the overall process in your mind. Complexly concise!

Here is what you must remember. There is no right or wrong when it comes to designing your trading plan. A plan is meant to be revised as our skills improve and new lessons learned. It’s never set in stone. It’s a healthy habit to adjust it in accordance with your developments.

Elite sportsmen are constantly making small insignificant tweaks to optimize their performance, which when compounded over time, makes all the difference to achieve their desired results. Trading is no different, as you gather experience, you must incorporate your own ‘experience-based’ rules in your plan as you see appropriate.

If thru your own experience trading a particular method you can justify slight variations to the rules, nuances, etc, follow that route, but don’t do this lightly or thinking there won’t be consequences if you start fiddling too much with it as it is a fine balancing act between keeping the core plan intact while polishing up the small details.

In your journey as a trader, it’s typical to jump from system to system. Only if you are convinced that such changes are necessary to optimize your results, go ahead. Just be aware that every time you recalibrate your plan, which may involve the entry strategy, a probing period must follow to verify your assumptions. This has to do with back-testing.

If you find yourself questioning the accuracy of a trading methodology just because you are going thru a losing streak, which happens, that’s when you have to be the most collected and remember what I am saying here. Be always very ‘present’ when these thoughts come through your mind about changing the core of your trading system, as it implies drifting the focus and start trying ‘new’ things, which leads to the dreaded term ‘inconsistency.’

More often than not, that tends to occur to those that failed to put the hours needed to boost the confidence levels in the strategy to such an extent that no matter what, you will stick to it and let the odds play out.

How To Build Your Trading Plan​

In a nutshell, your plan must elaborate in detail the what’s, when’s, how’s, whys. Below, I will deconstruct what experience has taught me to consider the most critical elements a plan must include.

Why Do You Trade?​

There must be an underlying reason for your interest to trade the markets. At the end of the day, the regular paycheck that trading forex can provide to the professional traders is just a by-product and means to your goal. The actual ‘why’ must be one or a series of reasons that drive you.

It could be the achievement of financial independence so that you can live life on your own terms and stop trading time for money. It could be providing your family with the best possible life. It could be the independence to live anywhere in the world through the income that trading generates. It could be the desire to continuously grow as a human being or buying a dreamed car, etc.

It will be this ‘why’ that will hold you accountable and keep you ‘on track’ with your long-term goals when the going gets tough. I’ll go even further. You really want to find some pictures related to these true goals and paste them in your trading plan and even in the wall of your trading office right in front of you. They must be staring at you!

How Do You Like To Trade?​

I’ve always thought of trading successfully as a test of character. The more you know yourself, the greater chances at this game you have, no matter what system you trade, it’s all in the mind. Your trading system therefore must absolutely and unequivocally fit your personality. That’s why understanding yourself and why you make certain decisions is the number 1 question you must always ask.

There can be many triggers that will eventually derail you from trading a system if this is not a reflection of how you are as a trader. Even to the point that if the strategy is proven to work but you are the type of trader who doesn’t like to sit on your butt waiting for hours for the right setup to pop up but rather you are more the kind of active ‘scalper-like’ trader in and out, sooner or later, that’s going to manifest in how you perform by making an unnecessary amount of mistakes, detaching yourself from it, etc. The opposite can also be true.

If you like to be very patient and methodical, only waiting for the right setups to occur in higher timeframes, an intraday strategy that gets you in and out of the market for quick profits won’t seat well with you. Are you the type of trader who likes to just specialize on one single setup on multiple markets? Do you like to focus in just one market? Do you have the capacity to be actively engaged in multiple markets while also deploying multiple setups with an edge?

Know thyself must always come first before you choose your strategy. Finding yourself is key, as that’s when the search for the holy grail is over, as you start to look from inside out vs stimulated from outside factors from which to adapt.

Define Your Daily Routine​

The more mechanical and consistent your trading habits become, the greater the odds to be part of an elite group that makes money on a regular basis. Your trading plan should describe what your daily rituals are from the moment you come to your trading desk until you call it a day.

This will set you apart from the amateur-type trader that simply tends to show up at their desk, stumble from one trade to another without any previous preparation, and expect to be at an optimal level to perform and extract profits.

Your routine may include at what time do you come to your office to start the preparation for your trading day ahead? how do you prepare mentally? Do you run daily exercises to stay emotionally and psychologically detach from the monetary value of your account? Do you work out to stay fit and your brain ready for peak performance? How long will you dedicate to scan the markets? How will you decide what instruments are most suited to trade your strategy? Are you aware of the risk events for the day? and much more.

Make sure that as part of your routine, you are as efficient as possible. What this means is to automate the maximum number of tasks in order to eliminate redundant processes.

The Entry Strategy​

Next, as part of the trading plan, you should incorporate the rules for the entry strategy, the context it will be traded under and nuances that will be applied, which are snippets of extra info you want to account for as you gather experience.

This is going to be the section of your plan that determines the set of conditions you must identify in the markets that will validate an entry. You must be very precise and consistent in applying these rules.

All this has been touched in the lesson about the entry strategy. Lay it all out here, including the nuances that I’ve either shared or that you want to adopt as you collect more experience.

Trade Management​

It’s not making the profit that is the hardest but to keep this profit, that’s why we also want to be very methodical in coming up with the conditions that will get us out of the trade, either by hitting your stop loss, break even or profit.

Traders tend to get too caught up with the entry, but it’s the actual exit that sets the standards for the amount of reward you get out of each entry.

Risk Management​

It’s here that you must decide the type of risk you will put on a particular trade. Don’t ever fall into the trap of defining the success of a trade in the number of pips you made. What really matters here is the correct position sizing, which will be determined by the size of your stop loss vs the total amount you are willing to lose.

If your account is worth $10k, you then must decide what monetary value you are fully accepting to find out whether or not the analysis you’ve conducted will result in the price going in your desired direction. You must be completely detached from the monetary value of your trade, which starts with accepting the money at risk.

If there is any type of emotional attachment to your position, sooner or later you’ll start messing around. As part of managing trades, never forget the key pillars to keep in mind (win rate, risk-reward, risk percentage). Remember that the risk management script I share will make this process very easy.

You will also need to set the maximum risk you are willing to accept per day, per week and per month. Also, you must work out your total risk exposure at any stage, the maximum correlated risk in case you are trading the same currencies or how many trades will you have open at one time as to not keep you off track unable to focus on all your open positions.

You also want to figure out some rules to take some time off the screen or even a whole day off to clear your head or as a form of re-assessment if the proverbial hits the fan and you experience a severe drawdown. This exercise will be priceless to avoid certain pitfalls traders fall into such as revenge trading.

As part of your risk management, assuming you’ve achieved a state from which you are able to detach from the emotions and the monetary value of the trade, these are the right questions you must constantly ask yourself when putting on a new trade.

Remember, it’s all about the process! Questions: Was the action I’ve taken prescribed in my trading plan? Was the risk level appropriate, neither too large or too small? Did I account for factors such as market conditions and correlated risk? Did I make any emotionally-driven errors in my entry, exit or risk management?

Journaling: Take Stock Of Lessons Learnt​

Do you find yourself committing recurrent trading mistakes? Have you identified some common patterns that you either want to reinforce or avoid altogether? Do you fall victim to your own shortcomings when it comes to disciplinary routines that you know deep inside must be addressed? Trust me, this list can stretch almost infinitely unless you take action.

You must be a good record keeper. The reason why keeping track of your trades is such a valuable exercise is because here is where you gain the constant feedback loop on why and how you won or lost a trade. Especially when you lose, finding out if the trade was due to a mistake, so that you can minimize them and ultimately eliminate them is extremely important.

At the end of the day, the reason you are aware of bad habits is through a review as it allows to unveil what your patterns and behaviors throughout the days are. By monitoring them, you make sure they are less frequent. Since trading is a business, you must be the accountant that keeps track of all the details.

As a trader, you must discover through your own journey both the most recurrent negative and positive actions and take note. Where you take note is in the trading plan, in the lessons learnt section.

If we are unable to spot, find a solution and take action to change certain behaviors affecting our performance, the risk is that we’ll be constantly trapped in a vicious cycle. The more we are reminded of the area we faulted before, the more aware we are not to make the same mistakes in the future.

Minimizing the number of mistakes we’ll commit as traders is absolutely essential. In fact, successful traders can attest that a large share of one’s merits to be a consistently profitable trader is to have eliminated their trading mistakes to the bare minimum.

Similarly, we must remind ourselves of the positive actions we are performing that will reinforce these habits. The recognition that we are nailing certain processes also has a huge impact to firm up one’s self-image in the quest to develop a successful trader mindset profile.

Putting It All Together​

It’s your turn to build your own plan that you and only you will respect. I’ve given you the method and the guidance to do it like a professional. Now turn it into a frame of reference to harmonize your behavior as a trader.

Don’t forget, cover all the ground possible as part of your plan, yet be concise enough so that you guarantee the reading of your plan every day. Plus don’t ever overlook the importance of keeping a journal and reviewing your trades, as that’s the only way to identify the patterns you must correct to eliminate recurring mistakes.

Even with all the instructions provided, only a few percent will conquer themselves, hence the markets, in order to pull regular money out of it. However, you will give yourself the greatest chance by treating trading as a business, and that my trade-warrior friend, is what a trading plan is about.
 
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Fear Of Losing In Trading: Why It Happens & Tips To Overcome It​

If you are certain that you don’t want to be a victim of your own weaknesses, fear or confusions, the only way forward is to get your act together and be ready to do whatever it takes to live a bolder life.

fear in trading


This is an article that has been re-purposed as a ‘trading guide’ from Global Prime’s academy courses.

Fear of losing in trading is a big one as society doesn’t teach you how to lose. We’ve been conditioned to always aim for the wins, it’s just human nature. Therefore, a common pattern is that you are still not entering a trade when your system gives you a signal, get paralyzed after a series of losses, or your judgment to call a trade is impaired by the memory of the last losses, then a component of fear is affecting the way you trade and that must be addressed.

Because of the way our brains have been wired over history, we tend to seek security over risk. We tend to magnify the number of negative thoughts over positive ones. That’s just the way it is, unless, you train to think and act differently to avoid the constant activation of your primitive portion of the brain.

Fear can take many forms in trading, it can originate from the anticipation of thinking you will lose money, of disappointing someone if you don’t perform as expected, trading too large sizes, fear of not being good enough, fear of making a mistake, etc.

Firstly, you need to pinpoint what exactly you are afraid of and how bad that’s affecting your bottom line results. The practice of any activity that helps to calm and relax your brain such as deep breathing/meditation, coupled with internal dialogue, will make a tremendous difference in your ability to detect when an element of fear is hindering your trading.

In my case, I was able to build new neural pathways in my brain through the repetition of a direct affirmation that I wrote down 2 times per day for over a year back in 2015. It read: “it is like me to trade the markets without fear or tension. By trading without fear or tensions, I allow myself to participate in a statistically-backed winning strategy.”

What this does, is to reinforce my self-image about who I am when trading the markets. Besides, I’ve worked for some time now to identify and channel the negative connotations of fear as an energy so that it can permute to help me.

How do I achieve this? By transforming it into a vehicle that will help me push beyond my boundaries, working extra hard, building more skills, which leads to my fear of inaction far exceeding my fear of failure, hence taking more action to avoid inaction.

If you are certain that you don’t want to be a victim of your own weaknesses, fear or confusions, the only way forward is to get your act together and be ready to do whatever it takes to live a bolder life.

I’ve always loved the quote in trading that “fortune favors the bold”, which in the case of those suffering from fear, it’s a great reminder that in life, risk is an inherent part of living, especially when trading.

At the end of the day, it comes down to embracing a loss and seeing it as an event that takes you closer to the next win, release it and let it go, spit it out or will collude you. With that said, I invite you to watch this short-clip related to the topic of this article, fear in trading, as an extension of the thoughts I shared with you today.

 
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Forex Indices: The Breakdown [01-13]

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The USD was sold harshly as a solid 10y UST auction led to have second thoughts over the recent bond sell-off. In fact, the USD set to record a down day for 2021 after three days of upside. Still, do remember where we stand in the grand scheme of things via this video analysis.The major sell-off makes me near term agnostic of further downside in the USD, especially in light of the pocket of demand retested in the USD index. Looking at the broader market spectrum, the EUR, CHF, JPY all hold a bearish outlook, while the GBP, AUD, NZD are gaining traction, but too much too quick.


Let’s get started…


Opportunities in the Forex indices (video below)​



The USD was sold harshly as a solid 10y UST auction led to have second thoughts over the recent bond sell-off. In fact, the USD set to record a down day for 2021 after three days of upside. Still, do remember where we stand in the grand scheme of things via this video analysis. The major sell-off makes me near term agnostic of further downside in the USD, especially in light of the pocket of demand retested in the USD index. Looking at the broader market spectrum, the EUR, CHF, JPY all hold a bearish outlook, while the GBP, AUD, NZD are gaining traction, but too much too quick.

In my video analysis below I use concepts taught in the brand new Academy website such as momentum, volatility measures and market structures to come up with the daily outlook in the currency market.




EUR INDEX​



The single currency holds an outright bearish outlook heading into Wednesday. The aggregation of flows on a session-by-session basis portrays a gloomy stance after 5 consecutive bearish candles. It is not coincidence that the sell-side pressure in the Euro has picked up momentum ever since the breakout of a major battleground colored in purple. Since then, and upon the clearance of a second key support on the way down, it’s been off to the races for bears. I can frankly see much more downside from here on out until the November lows (circa 0.45-0.5% downside potential).

GBP INDEX​



In stark contrast to the Euro, the Sterling has gone through heavy buy-side flows. It has now reached an important level of resistance where the first signs of profit-taking are starting to surface. Five buy-side candles in a row and a 1% gain from its latest valuation (bottom-side of a consolidation area) warrant a cautious stance near term. There is little value to be chasing the market now that the index trades above its 1-time average ATR deviation from the mean.

USD INDEX​



There has been a significant setback in the US Dollar as US Treasury bond yields slumped quite sharply. The currency now sits at a key area of support where I’d imagine supply could easily exhaust and/or be absorbed. Despite the US Dollar is below its control ‘mean’ line, which makes it overall bearish, I can’t help but anticipate near term buy-side flows. Hence, anyone looking to short the US Dollar into this area may be asking for trouble.

CAD INDEX​



The currency trades right at the control ‘mean’ line with the prospects not that clear for the time being. The CAD, not coincidentally, has paused its sell-off through the North-American session at what has constituted the most important area of resistance through December. Since it was cleared back on Jan 8th, buyers are trying to establish their footing above it but are being met with grateful seller. Still, we are not far from another potential buy-side signal.

JPY INDEX​



The Japanese currency fired a sell-side signal in the last 24h of trading. The grey vertical line exhibits the entry level. While we’ve had follow through continuation, the momentum has been stagnating even if the technical metrics applied to the charts in order to determine the length of the exposure still keep us in. Overall, the Yen is one of the most bearish currencies out there, alongside the Swiss Franc and the Euro as other close candidates.

AUD INDEX​



The Aussie extended its month-long impressive rally by initially retaining the bullish bias after a near-term pullback. Once the control line (13-period moving average) got re-taken, implying that the buy-side flows were making their way back, a resumption of the underlying bullish trend ensued. The Aussie is now testing its highest levels in years. It’d be worried to gain long exposure in the currency at this point unless we can clear the top-side of the range.

NZD INDEX​



The Kiwi is back from its lowest in 2021 with a vengeance. There has been an aggressive buy-side campaign emerging that has resulted in the creation of a bullish outside candle in the last US session. The follow-through currently underway is looking like it has further momentum to target the next area of resistance over 0.25% away from the US candle close. It’d imagine a retracement from there even if it may prove short-lived given the dominant uptrend.

CHF INDEX​



As in the case of the EUR, the Swiss Franc has also recently cleared a huge area of support. The backside retest of that area has led to the bailing of structural CHF long positions I’d suspect. The flip-effect off this support turned resistance is paying dividends for those with short exposure in the currency. As a matter of fact, the bearish technical picture earlier this week was reinforced by the confluence of the control line at the SR flip vicinity.

Economic indicators & events​

If interested in the best ‘free of charge’ News Indicator that displays data on past and future news in the Forex market via MT4, check this YouTube video. The indicator allows you to save time and avoid mistakes.




Source: Forexfactory

Important footnotes​

Announcing The Global Prime Academy. Check out our brand new Academy website launched earlier this week. Let me give you a brief background on why we’ve created the Global Prime Academy. The universal praise I received about my trading and content I produce has been incredible.

However, clients at Global Prime were frustrated to find a structured way to absorb all this knowledge. Part of these golden nuggets are now going to be encapsulated in easy to follow and digestible lessons. By the end of the course, you will be given a set of strategies to take your game to the very next level. The first delivery focuses on the ‘TRAPPED TRADERS PATTERN’ while the second course is about ‘CURRENCY STRENGTH MICRO-MECHANICS’



 
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