Gold Gold Daily Video, April 17, 2023

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Gold keeps long term bullish trend but seems a bit overbought tactically. We consider downside pullback now, based on intraday H&S pattern and watch for 1955$ area as potential target within 1-2 weeks:

 

[Tradeitanyway]

Hello Sive
I am updating my gold technical overview
On 30 mins chart, I still see another low at 1.618 wave 4 target 1977 , I expect a recovery up after that in 3 waves , will see how strong it will be but it can retest 2012 2030 levels. Today I shorted gold at 2012 waited for a retest for broken diagonal which was the easiest trade this month, just 70 pips sl was enough because if pattern has to play 100%, price should not enter back into broken diagonal territory.
on h4 chart with orange boxes, it is still under observation. we have = magnitude and it looks like a copy paste price action but flipped, time we took wave (1) lower orange box applied to the upper orange box suggests maybe in 24th or 25th will have a breakout maybe.
Anyways we have reached a zone which is very hard to trade, and from my experience with gold when it ranges or enters a consolidation phase, risk management is 70% key to profiting and 30% is technical. A lot of traders make money in trend and lose money in sideways market, I am one of these traders because we analyze too much taking decisions for granted. There are many rejection zones and many scenarios right now, so I advise everyone to engage with strong rejection zones and perform a good risk management for his positions, do not let full positions opened, we already broke last week low which is not a good sign for bulls, so next destination might be 1975+/- . there are three weekly lows , connecting them we will have a support trend line, will see if it gold.
Note all these notes are subject to change should I see a clear daily or weekly closing with either bearish or bullish momentum, I will take a more confidant decision
Palladium today broke 7 weeks highs, waiting for other metals to show some strength or break highs because usually low performing metals like platinum or palladium are leading assets in the market.
Will keep you updated guys , have a nice day and good luck .. cheers everyone

 

[Tradeitanyway]

1981 was 61.8 fib level , i just noticed it now , so a retest to 1983 might be a change to long with stops below it , risk wise and you need to watch for patterns formation on low time frame to take a better decision. Also we if take this scenario ABC , A from 2027 to1992 , B correction to 2015 yesterday, so ideally not as long 2015 is not breached, it can act as a resistance zone. Then a break below 1981 might extend to difference targets including 1963 1959 100% of wave A and 100% of minor abc of wave C
that's all I think, best of luck

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive
I am updating my gold technical overview

Hi mate, it seems EW shows something near our view of H&S. Should give us more confidence.

 

[Tchurik]

Hi Sive, Hi everyone,
Winter is coming, buy some Gas
An update on my Natgas Buy opening positions, with a DRPO weekly pattern in construction. I posted my first entry a couple of weeks ago, now i have opened a new one considering we've crossed the 3x3 on the weekly timeframe.
We should close above the 3x3 on friday to keep the DRPO pattern valid.
Great reward in perspective as this pattern is a powerful contrarian pattern.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive, Hi everyone,
Winter is coming, buy some Gas
An update on my Natgas Buy opening positions, with a DRPO weekly pattern in construction. I posted my first entry a couple of weeks ago, now i have opened a new one considering we've crossed the 3x3 on the weekly timeframe.
We should close above the 3x3 on friday to keep the DRPO pattern valid.
Great reward in perspective as this pattern is a powerful contrarian pattern.
View attachment 83312

Hi Tchurick,
Interesting stuff, although I've heard that it is gas overstock in EU right now... Based on the shape of supposed DRPO bottoms, it seems that we could get 3-Drive by instead. What do you think? Somewhere around 1.65-1.7...

 

[Tchurik]

Hi Tchurick,
Interesting stuff, although I've heard that it is gas overstock in EU right now... Based on the shape of supposed DRPO bottoms, it seems that we could get 3-Drive by instead. What do you think? Somewhere around 1.65-1.7...

Sure Sive,
I have put the zone you defined in green on my chart, cause that would be the best entry zone for long term buy, but for several technical reasons i will explain why i do not consider we will go there, and why i take position now.

 

[Tradeitanyway]

Hi mate, it seems EW shows something near our view of H&S. Should give us more confidence.

Hello Sive, am watching palladium platinum they are breaking new highs , this is a previous chart of projection , palladium is far from stopping to the upside , strong momentum , 1730 1950 2300 at least correction then will see , we should consider platinum and palladium as leading assets as mentioned before because if all metals are breaking highs , gold and silver should follow , will see maybe some pullback then new highs

 

[Tradeitanyway]

Hello Sive, nothing much to update , yesterday moves on gold was sharp both bears and bulls , but in a tight range, which make me consider a potential of triangle formation as wave 4 , if it is a triangle then it's bearish because triangle in EW are continuation patterns and almost 80% in wave 4.
Also I made two orange corrective swings from last correction , let's say gold has the habit of making = corrections before bears flip to bulls then target is 1973 , it coincide with some fib levels below 1981, also support by trend line below


this scenario in addition to many scenarios we discussed before , I just need to see price action , reaction to take a decision. I also consider 2015 as bullish bearish level , should we break it then retest to highs or right shoulder formation as you mentioned.
note if it is a triangle we still need another retest to the lower trend line then rally to upper trend line then collapse and 2015 should be broken any given time otherwise it's not triangle anymore
Good luck , cheers

 

[Tradeitanyway]

Hi Sive, Hi everyone,
Winter is coming, buy some Gas
An update on my Natgas Buy opening positions, with a DRPO weekly pattern in construction. I posted my first entry a couple of weeks ago, now i have opened a new one considering we've crossed the 3x3 on the weekly timeframe.
We should close above the 3x3 on friday to keep the DRPO pattern valid.
Great reward in perspective as this pattern is a powerful contrarian pattern.
View attachment 83312

Hello , according to my count and analysis , still in favor or one more leg down to 1.600 1.400 before making a reversal