Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
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Fundamentals
Definitely this was a Gold's week. Really big event, and all of them bring questions, doubts, nervousness etc., as geopolitical as economical. In general, situation around Fed policy becomes positive for Gold market. As we've said yesterday - 25 points cut will not help any more, while 50 points cut could look like panic. Since the rate cut is predefined already and investors will keep arguing how much it will be, we could say that gold has an immunity from this factor - whatever will happen, it should be positive to the gold. And any possible jump in inflation will have minimal negative impact on the market by two reasons. First is - rate cut will happen anyway, second - real yield will become lower any time, when CPI will increase. Thus, both factors supportive to gold market. So, speaking shortly, the US statistics, whatever it will be goes on the backseat in nearest 2-3 months and stop to be vital for gold market performance. But domestic politics and geopolitics will come on 1st stage.
Market overview
Gold prices retreated on Friday as profit-taking kicked in after bullion jumped over 1% earlier in the session on hopes of rate cuts buoyed by weaker than expected U.S. jobs data. However, gold gained 1.8% this week as rising safe-haven demand due to Middle East tensions and expectations of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve made the metal more appealing for investors.
Meanwhile, U.S. 10-year yields dropped to their lowest level since December while the dollar drops to March minimums after data showed that employers added fewer jobs in July than economists had forecast, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. The data follows comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said on Wednesday that rates could be cut as soon as September if the U.S. economy follows its expected path.
WGC has released new quarterly report, providing the aggregate statistics for IIQ of 2024 and outlook for future times. Net purchases of metal into the reserves of the Central Bank for the first half of 2024 hit 483 tons. OTC investment of 329 tones was a significant component of Q2 total gold demand. Together with continued central bank buying, it helped drive the price to a series of record highs during the quarter.
This is another record. Central Banks demand in Q2 slowed down (+6% y/y, 184 tons) compared to the previous one, but remained above the long-term trend. Gold's role as a hedge and reserve portfolio diversifier remains a key buying driver for central banks. According to the data, the Central Bank of Poland became the largest buyer of gold in the second quarter: +19 tons to 377 tons, which is 13% of total reserves. Poland plans to increase the figure to 20%.
Global demand reached a new high in the second quarter, supporting the gold price rally - 1258 tons. In addition to the Central Bank purchases, over-the-counter investments in metal that was five times more than in the IQ and inflows of Western ETFs at the end of the quarter increased sharply, but jewelry consumption fell -19% y/y due toof high prices. Comment from Joseph Cavatoni, WGC Americas Chief Market Strategist:
Gold consumption in India in 2024 is expected to be 700-750 tons compared to 761 in 2023. Demand for the metal in the country will increase in the second half of 2024 amid falling domestic prices on gold and cutting import duties to an 11-year lows (we talked about it in previous research). Regional investment trends continued to diverge. Demand for bars, coins and ETFs, was robust in the East, compared with a marked decline in the West. Western ETF investment flows have, however, started to return so far in Q3.
Of note is the recent change in European and North American gold ETF flows. We think the potential for a positive H2 is on the cards as ETF activity tends to trend. Asian ETF demand is also expected to remain positive, driven mainly by Chinese ETF buying but also from continued inflows in India. Gold ETFs remain under-owned in our view and the distribution of possible outcomes is skewed to the upside.
Total holdings of global gold-backed ETFs ended the quarter 7t lower at 3,105t. Combined May and June inflows of 26t largely offset April’s 33t outflow. Regionally, declines were seen in Europe and North America, while Asia continued to grow – led by China, where record inflows took AUM and holdings to new highs. The small Q2 decline generated H1 losses of 120t – the largest since H1 2013.
Developed market investment demand in gold ETFs has remained lacklustre as prices have soared so far in 2024 (Chart 3, p 4). However, the less visible hand of OTC demand and solid secondary market activity suggests investor interest has been present. A continuation of the nascent positive trajectory of gold ETFs, along with further strength in futures positioning, is still likely in our view given a number of catalysts:
• A clearer path to lower policy rates in the US and Europe
• An ‘excessive’ current and forecast US fiscal deficit, given growth and employment
• Increased market volatility as US political wrangling ratchets up in H2
• Global geopolitical risk that curtails some recycling and bolsters retail demand
• Support from the trend of central bank buying.
Of note is the recent change in European and North American gold ETF flows. We think the potential for a positive H2 is on the cards as ETF activity tends to trend. Asian ETF demand is also expected to remain positive, driven mainly by Chinese ETF buying but also from continued inflows in India. Gold ETFs remain under-owned in our view and the distribution of possible outcomes is skewed to the upside.
The pace of outflows from gold ETFs slowed sharply in Q2: global holdings declined by just 7t during the quarter, thanks to two consecutive months of inflows in May and June, offsetting April’s losses. In US dollar terms, global assets under management (AUM) grew to US$233bn, reflecting the continued strong gold price performance. Regionally, Western-listed ETFs saw outflows, while funds listed in Asia saw further growth.
WGC Outlook
Soaring gold prices are hobbling demand for traditional applications like jewelry and dentistry, but wealthy Asian investors’ voracious appetite is more than offsetting the other declines. Strong physical bar buying in the over-the-counter market, particularly by family offices in Asia, helped gold demand register its best second quarter in data going back at least 25 years, according to the World Gold Council.
Wealthy individuals and asset managers in China and other parts of the region have piled into the precious metal to help counter their growing “concerns around credit, debt and financial conditions,” Joseph Cavatoni, WGC’s chief market strategist for the Americas, said in an interview. Holding physical gold gives them “comfort” in today’s rapidly evolving climate, he added. Out of the 200 richest people in the world, more than one-quarter are based in Asia, data from Bloomberg show.
OTC demand was almost within striking distance of jewelry consumption, long one of the top drivers of global gold demand. Wealthy investors like the OTC market for its opaqueness. Most of the deals are done through dealers or between buyers and sellers directly, without an exchange platform or clearing house.
It seems that WGC is right, because if we take a look at data for recent two weeks, we see strong inflows in gold ETFs. The inflow into gold funds amounted to $1.3 billion in two weeks - the maximum since March 2022, BofA reported.
TRUMP
Gold is the best portfolio hedge in the event Donald Trump retakes the White House, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey. Proponents of the precious metal as a haven play in case of Trump’s reelection outnumbered those picking the US dollar two-to-one among the 480 respondents. Just over 60% of those surveyed see the greenback ultimately weakening in the event the Republican candidate secures another presidential term.
History is on their side. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar slid more than 10% while the spot price of gold rallied over 50% during Trump’s four years in office. Trump’s platform of tax cuts, tariffs and weaker regulation are viewed as inflationary on Wall Street and could even force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again.
Bullion’s gains during the Trump presidency were in part fueled by investors seeking safety as the Covid-19 pandemic hit and the federal funds rate fell to near zero. Gold — which pays no interest — reached what was back then a record high in August 2020 amid global lockdown jitters. It wasn’t even the biggest surge under a president we’ve seen in the past fifty years — returns under George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter were far greater.
Two-thirds of survey responders expect a Trump re-election to undermine the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX Group, says a Trump second term could exacerbate the move away from the greenback as the private sector joins central banks in the rotation.
Trump not once told about weaker dollar to resolve national debt problems. The GOP candidate has completely overhauled the party in his populist image, and named a fellow strong-dollar skeptic in Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate. If he defeats his Democratic opponent, likely to be Vice President Kamala Harris, in November then Trump looks set to start a second term right where the last one left off — railing against an overvalued currency, which he blames for blowing out America’s trade deficit and hollowing out its industry.
Asked what kind of economy Americans need, Trump promptly raised the “big currency problem.” He said he keeps hearing from manufacturers that “nobody wants to buy our product because it’s too expensive” – while other countries try to keep their currencies “weak all the time” because it gives them an edge in exports. Trump expressed particular irritation with the cheapness of Japan’s yen and China’s yuan.
US TREASURY CHEATS THE MARKET
The annual US budget deficit has exceeded more than $2 trillion. Debt servicing costs set a new record in June, exceeding $140 billion for the calendar month or ~$1.7 trillion annualized or 6% of GDP. This is where Yellen, the Democrat/ financial hedge fund, comes into play . The head of the US Treasury actually carried out “Stealth QE” [Bidennomics deficit financing] through unlimited issuance of short-term bills, manipulating the yield curve. The idea is simple - in the end, you will have to pay less on bills if monetary policy begins to soft quickly, while the long end of the curve does not experience strong pressure from new issues. Powell and Co. meanwhile, were actively looking for reasons not to cut rates amid Yellen's insane debt monetization. Perhaps “fighting inflation” became the key narrative, and the sudden reversal risked destabilizing dollar markets. Moreover, as everyone knows, the Fed starts cutting rates very late - only after a recession/depression in the economy has already begun.
For understanding: based on the results of the second quarter. By 2024, the annual rate of net payments on government debt was estimated at $1.1 trillion. And this train cannot be stopped - in the near future, the repayment schedule due to the reissue of bills may greatlysurprise scare the debt market. There is no light at the end of the debt tunnel, given the programs announced by the presidential candidates, under either of the two administrations.
It is advisable to support the "data dependent" narrative for the American Central Bank so as not to frighten the global markets: currency/stock/debt. There is an assumption that real GDP growth is in the red [and has been for quite some time, simply masked by paper indicators/bubbles of the US financial markets], then the notorious recession is a completely reasonable argument to start easing monetary policy as soon as possible. Agent Donald, with his dreams of a weak dollar, will be lucky in this scenario.
Meantime US Treasury borrowing plans for the 3rd and 4th quarters are as follows:
● In the third quarter, the market borrowing plan was reduced from $847 to $740 billion, mainly due to the slowdown in the Fed's QT.
● In the fourth quarter, the US Treasury plans to borrow $565 billion from the market, but at the same time plans to reduce the amount of funds in the Fed account from $850 billion to $700 billion
● In total, the Ministry of Finance plans to borrow $1.3 trillion from the market in the second half of the year.
The US national debt, meanwhile, reached another psychological mark of $35 trillion, exactly a year ago it was $32.6 trillion, i.e. grew by $2.4 trillion over the year. The July deficit is still on a trajectory significantly higher than last year’s levels as of the 26th day of the month.
A note by Tavi Costa on the margins of the global currency and debt crisis - “We are on the verge of a major transformation in the foreign exchange markets.”
We are talking about a significant depreciation of the US dollar relative to other currencies over the next few year. Fed's current monetary policy is completely out of proportion to the scale of the debt problem, which puts the US economy in a dangerous situation. According to the OECD, by next year the US will face the highest debt servicing costs (4.6% of GDP) of any advanced market economy:
This predicament quickly turned from a long-term problem to a matter of immediate urgency. We believe this could trigger several Fed rate cuts, which would undermine confidence in the regulator's dual mandate of supporting employment and price stability. An abrupt change in Fed policy would likely put significant pressure on the US dollar relative to both hard assets [such as gold] and other fiat currencies that have no immediate need to reduce debt servicing costs.
While other economies may have larger debt imbalances, none are under the same level of pressure from debt servicing costs as the United States. he Japanese economy is one of the most heavily indebted developed countries in the world, having managed to maintain exceptionally low costs of debt through suppressed interest rates and yield curve control [ YCC] measures. However, this approach led to a significant devaluation of the Japanese yen. (Besides, recall that Japan has positive trade deficit at least).
From a macroeconomic perspective, America's exceptional economic growth was primarily due to its significantly larger budget deficits compared to other countries (8.1%). This difference in fiscal spending has fueled economic growth and attracted capital to U.S. financial markets, explaining why the rest of the world has underperformed sharply for more than a decade.
Given the rising cost of debt, it is reasonable to wonder whether the US economy can continue to maintain this level of financial dominance, especially compared to other countries. Historically, three potential solutions have emerged to solve this problem:
Austerity measures
Policy tools to reduce debt servicing costs
Or, more radically, debt restructuring
We believe similar policies are needed today, with interest rate suppression (curve control) likely the most effective initial response. the urgent need to adjust the US monetary policy indicates that the dollar is likely to face adverse effects. The real problem is the mismatch between current interest rate policy and the size of the public debt.
Now is most important and interesting thing form Tavi speech...
It is critical to focus on assets that demonstrate resilience despite significant macroeconomic headwinds, which tend to negatively impact their prices. This is what we have seen recently with most currencies against the US dollar. They are showing significant strength, potentially marking a historic bottom, despite the wide gap with US interest rates.
The positive effect of holding US dollars should have resulted in significant inflows into the currency, especially relative to gold and other hard assets. Instead (!!!), we saw precious metals prices soar during one of the most aggressive expansion cycles since the 1970s. These changes in market structure are noticeable and likely mark the start of a new trend. We tend to favor currencies from countries with significant natural resource support. In addition, dollar depreciation trends tend to benefit emerging markets.
Summarizing:
We expect that following the chain reaction [inflation - high rate macro regime - falling sovereign debt prices] the US dollar will likely be the next to depreciate, leading to a significant rise in precious metals prices.
CONCLUSION
Even without sophisticated analysis, using just common sense, it becomes clear that perspective of gold market stands rosy. To be honest, guys, we're just entering in a big turmoil stage, and the growth that we saw before is just a warm up. Because the pot is heating up but not boiling yet. By the way, speaking about China low purchases is a tricky question. It's not that simple. The Chinese are serious about control the precious metal market. Take a look - physical demand in Asia hits new records regularly, he paper gold market cannot withstand real physical demand, so at the beginning of 2024 speculators actually capitulated, buying record long positions. Unofficial purchases of gold by central banks are growing, despite previous records. According to GWC, quarterly volumes of gray supplies are already significantly higher than public purchases.
There is a wonderful theory that 80% of all undisclosed purchases come from the PBOC:
Definitely this was a Gold's week. Really big event, and all of them bring questions, doubts, nervousness etc., as geopolitical as economical. In general, situation around Fed policy becomes positive for Gold market. As we've said yesterday - 25 points cut will not help any more, while 50 points cut could look like panic. Since the rate cut is predefined already and investors will keep arguing how much it will be, we could say that gold has an immunity from this factor - whatever will happen, it should be positive to the gold. And any possible jump in inflation will have minimal negative impact on the market by two reasons. First is - rate cut will happen anyway, second - real yield will become lower any time, when CPI will increase. Thus, both factors supportive to gold market. So, speaking shortly, the US statistics, whatever it will be goes on the backseat in nearest 2-3 months and stop to be vital for gold market performance. But domestic politics and geopolitics will come on 1st stage.
Market overview
Gold prices retreated on Friday as profit-taking kicked in after bullion jumped over 1% earlier in the session on hopes of rate cuts buoyed by weaker than expected U.S. jobs data. However, gold gained 1.8% this week as rising safe-haven demand due to Middle East tensions and expectations of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve made the metal more appealing for investors.
Meanwhile, U.S. 10-year yields dropped to their lowest level since December while the dollar drops to March minimums after data showed that employers added fewer jobs in July than economists had forecast, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. The data follows comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said on Wednesday that rates could be cut as soon as September if the U.S. economy follows its expected path.
WGC has released new quarterly report, providing the aggregate statistics for IIQ of 2024 and outlook for future times. Net purchases of metal into the reserves of the Central Bank for the first half of 2024 hit 483 tons. OTC investment of 329 tones was a significant component of Q2 total gold demand. Together with continued central bank buying, it helped drive the price to a series of record highs during the quarter.
This is another record. Central Banks demand in Q2 slowed down (+6% y/y, 184 tons) compared to the previous one, but remained above the long-term trend. Gold's role as a hedge and reserve portfolio diversifier remains a key buying driver for central banks. According to the data, the Central Bank of Poland became the largest buyer of gold in the second quarter: +19 tons to 377 tons, which is 13% of total reserves. Poland plans to increase the figure to 20%.
Global demand reached a new high in the second quarter, supporting the gold price rally - 1258 tons. In addition to the Central Bank purchases, over-the-counter investments in metal that was five times more than in the IQ and inflows of Western ETFs at the end of the quarter increased sharply, but jewelry consumption fell -19% y/y due toof high prices. Comment from Joseph Cavatoni, WGC Americas Chief Market Strategist:
Gold consumption in India in 2024 is expected to be 700-750 tons compared to 761 in 2023. Demand for the metal in the country will increase in the second half of 2024 amid falling domestic prices on gold and cutting import duties to an 11-year lows (we talked about it in previous research). Regional investment trends continued to diverge. Demand for bars, coins and ETFs, was robust in the East, compared with a marked decline in the West. Western ETF investment flows have, however, started to return so far in Q3.
Of note is the recent change in European and North American gold ETF flows. We think the potential for a positive H2 is on the cards as ETF activity tends to trend. Asian ETF demand is also expected to remain positive, driven mainly by Chinese ETF buying but also from continued inflows in India. Gold ETFs remain under-owned in our view and the distribution of possible outcomes is skewed to the upside.
Total holdings of global gold-backed ETFs ended the quarter 7t lower at 3,105t. Combined May and June inflows of 26t largely offset April’s 33t outflow. Regionally, declines were seen in Europe and North America, while Asia continued to grow – led by China, where record inflows took AUM and holdings to new highs. The small Q2 decline generated H1 losses of 120t – the largest since H1 2013.
Developed market investment demand in gold ETFs has remained lacklustre as prices have soared so far in 2024 (Chart 3, p 4). However, the less visible hand of OTC demand and solid secondary market activity suggests investor interest has been present. A continuation of the nascent positive trajectory of gold ETFs, along with further strength in futures positioning, is still likely in our view given a number of catalysts:
• A clearer path to lower policy rates in the US and Europe
• An ‘excessive’ current and forecast US fiscal deficit, given growth and employment
• Increased market volatility as US political wrangling ratchets up in H2
• Global geopolitical risk that curtails some recycling and bolsters retail demand
• Support from the trend of central bank buying.
Of note is the recent change in European and North American gold ETF flows. We think the potential for a positive H2 is on the cards as ETF activity tends to trend. Asian ETF demand is also expected to remain positive, driven mainly by Chinese ETF buying but also from continued inflows in India. Gold ETFs remain under-owned in our view and the distribution of possible outcomes is skewed to the upside.
The pace of outflows from gold ETFs slowed sharply in Q2: global holdings declined by just 7t during the quarter, thanks to two consecutive months of inflows in May and June, offsetting April’s losses. In US dollar terms, global assets under management (AUM) grew to US$233bn, reflecting the continued strong gold price performance. Regionally, Western-listed ETFs saw outflows, while funds listed in Asia saw further growth.
WGC Outlook
- Gold prices continued to firm in Q2 and beyond, in line with total demand. With plenty of fundamental support we think that prices can maintain or slowly build on current levels in H2, as per our mid-year outlook.
- Western investment demand is likely to produce a positive H2 but we have slightly lowered our full year estimate, given a disappointing Q2 for ETFs relative to our expectations. OTC investment is likely to contribute significantly, as it did in H1.
- The outlook remains positive for central bank gold demand; a view supported by the findings of our recent central bank survey, in which 81% of respondents say they expect global central bank gold holdings to increase in the next 12 months and 29% expect their own institution’s gold reserves to rise. A small upward revision to Q1 buying offset a slightly lower figure than we had anticipated in Q2, keeping our expectation for full year buying around 150t lower than 2023. Two cited drivers of select emerging market central buying: sanctions and sovereign risk remain elevated.
- Estimating and attributing OTC investment buying is difficult due to its opaque nature, but field research strongly supports the data available that puts this at 329t – the strongest quarter since Q4’20. Demand from this sector has been in response to concern over the US debt burden, geopolitical risks and attraction to the strong price rise. While OTC demand is not directly observable, the positioning of speculative investors in the US futures market can be indicative of it: net long positions held by money managers increased again in Q2, reaching levels not seen since April 2020 at 575t. The trend of gold demand among high net worth individuals across global markets was reportedly a continued contributor to OTC investment in Q2.
Soaring gold prices are hobbling demand for traditional applications like jewelry and dentistry, but wealthy Asian investors’ voracious appetite is more than offsetting the other declines. Strong physical bar buying in the over-the-counter market, particularly by family offices in Asia, helped gold demand register its best second quarter in data going back at least 25 years, according to the World Gold Council.
Wealthy individuals and asset managers in China and other parts of the region have piled into the precious metal to help counter their growing “concerns around credit, debt and financial conditions,” Joseph Cavatoni, WGC’s chief market strategist for the Americas, said in an interview. Holding physical gold gives them “comfort” in today’s rapidly evolving climate, he added. Out of the 200 richest people in the world, more than one-quarter are based in Asia, data from Bloomberg show.
OTC demand was almost within striking distance of jewelry consumption, long one of the top drivers of global gold demand. Wealthy investors like the OTC market for its opaqueness. Most of the deals are done through dealers or between buyers and sellers directly, without an exchange platform or clearing house.
It seems that WGC is right, because if we take a look at data for recent two weeks, we see strong inflows in gold ETFs. The inflow into gold funds amounted to $1.3 billion in two weeks - the maximum since March 2022, BofA reported.
TRUMP
Gold is the best portfolio hedge in the event Donald Trump retakes the White House, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey. Proponents of the precious metal as a haven play in case of Trump’s reelection outnumbered those picking the US dollar two-to-one among the 480 respondents. Just over 60% of those surveyed see the greenback ultimately weakening in the event the Republican candidate secures another presidential term.
History is on their side. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar slid more than 10% while the spot price of gold rallied over 50% during Trump’s four years in office. Trump’s platform of tax cuts, tariffs and weaker regulation are viewed as inflationary on Wall Street and could even force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again.
Bullion’s gains during the Trump presidency were in part fueled by investors seeking safety as the Covid-19 pandemic hit and the federal funds rate fell to near zero. Gold — which pays no interest — reached what was back then a record high in August 2020 amid global lockdown jitters. It wasn’t even the biggest surge under a president we’ve seen in the past fifty years — returns under George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter were far greater.
Two-thirds of survey responders expect a Trump re-election to undermine the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX Group, says a Trump second term could exacerbate the move away from the greenback as the private sector joins central banks in the rotation.
Trump not once told about weaker dollar to resolve national debt problems. The GOP candidate has completely overhauled the party in his populist image, and named a fellow strong-dollar skeptic in Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate. If he defeats his Democratic opponent, likely to be Vice President Kamala Harris, in November then Trump looks set to start a second term right where the last one left off — railing against an overvalued currency, which he blames for blowing out America’s trade deficit and hollowing out its industry.
Asked what kind of economy Americans need, Trump promptly raised the “big currency problem.” He said he keeps hearing from manufacturers that “nobody wants to buy our product because it’s too expensive” – while other countries try to keep their currencies “weak all the time” because it gives them an edge in exports. Trump expressed particular irritation with the cheapness of Japan’s yen and China’s yuan.
US TREASURY CHEATS THE MARKET
The annual US budget deficit has exceeded more than $2 trillion. Debt servicing costs set a new record in June, exceeding $140 billion for the calendar month or ~$1.7 trillion annualized or 6% of GDP. This is where Yellen, the Democrat/ financial hedge fund, comes into play . The head of the US Treasury actually carried out “Stealth QE” [Bidennomics deficit financing] through unlimited issuance of short-term bills, manipulating the yield curve. The idea is simple - in the end, you will have to pay less on bills if monetary policy begins to soft quickly, while the long end of the curve does not experience strong pressure from new issues. Powell and Co. meanwhile, were actively looking for reasons not to cut rates amid Yellen's insane debt monetization. Perhaps “fighting inflation” became the key narrative, and the sudden reversal risked destabilizing dollar markets. Moreover, as everyone knows, the Fed starts cutting rates very late - only after a recession/depression in the economy has already begun.
For understanding: based on the results of the second quarter. By 2024, the annual rate of net payments on government debt was estimated at $1.1 trillion. And this train cannot be stopped - in the near future, the repayment schedule due to the reissue of bills may greatly
It is advisable to support the "data dependent" narrative for the American Central Bank so as not to frighten the global markets: currency/stock/debt. There is an assumption that real GDP growth is in the red [and has been for quite some time, simply masked by paper indicators/bubbles of the US financial markets], then the notorious recession is a completely reasonable argument to start easing monetary policy as soon as possible. Agent Donald, with his dreams of a weak dollar, will be lucky in this scenario.
Meantime US Treasury borrowing plans for the 3rd and 4th quarters are as follows:
● In the third quarter, the market borrowing plan was reduced from $847 to $740 billion, mainly due to the slowdown in the Fed's QT.
● In the fourth quarter, the US Treasury plans to borrow $565 billion from the market, but at the same time plans to reduce the amount of funds in the Fed account from $850 billion to $700 billion
● In total, the Ministry of Finance plans to borrow $1.3 trillion from the market in the second half of the year.
The US national debt, meanwhile, reached another psychological mark of $35 trillion, exactly a year ago it was $32.6 trillion, i.e. grew by $2.4 trillion over the year. The July deficit is still on a trajectory significantly higher than last year’s levels as of the 26th day of the month.
A note by Tavi Costa on the margins of the global currency and debt crisis - “We are on the verge of a major transformation in the foreign exchange markets.”
We are talking about a significant depreciation of the US dollar relative to other currencies over the next few year. Fed's current monetary policy is completely out of proportion to the scale of the debt problem, which puts the US economy in a dangerous situation. According to the OECD, by next year the US will face the highest debt servicing costs (4.6% of GDP) of any advanced market economy:
This predicament quickly turned from a long-term problem to a matter of immediate urgency. We believe this could trigger several Fed rate cuts, which would undermine confidence in the regulator's dual mandate of supporting employment and price stability. An abrupt change in Fed policy would likely put significant pressure on the US dollar relative to both hard assets [such as gold] and other fiat currencies that have no immediate need to reduce debt servicing costs.
While other economies may have larger debt imbalances, none are under the same level of pressure from debt servicing costs as the United States. he Japanese economy is one of the most heavily indebted developed countries in the world, having managed to maintain exceptionally low costs of debt through suppressed interest rates and yield curve control [ YCC] measures. However, this approach led to a significant devaluation of the Japanese yen. (Besides, recall that Japan has positive trade deficit at least).
From a macroeconomic perspective, America's exceptional economic growth was primarily due to its significantly larger budget deficits compared to other countries (8.1%). This difference in fiscal spending has fueled economic growth and attracted capital to U.S. financial markets, explaining why the rest of the world has underperformed sharply for more than a decade.
Given the rising cost of debt, it is reasonable to wonder whether the US economy can continue to maintain this level of financial dominance, especially compared to other countries. Historically, three potential solutions have emerged to solve this problem:
Austerity measures Policy tools to reduce debt servicing costs Or, more radically, debt restructuringWe believe similar policies are needed today, with interest rate suppression (curve control) likely the most effective initial response. the urgent need to adjust the US monetary policy indicates that the dollar is likely to face adverse effects. The real problem is the mismatch between current interest rate policy and the size of the public debt.
Now is most important and interesting thing form Tavi speech...
It is critical to focus on assets that demonstrate resilience despite significant macroeconomic headwinds, which tend to negatively impact their prices. This is what we have seen recently with most currencies against the US dollar. They are showing significant strength, potentially marking a historic bottom, despite the wide gap with US interest rates.
The positive effect of holding US dollars should have resulted in significant inflows into the currency, especially relative to gold and other hard assets. Instead (!!!), we saw precious metals prices soar during one of the most aggressive expansion cycles since the 1970s. These changes in market structure are noticeable and likely mark the start of a new trend. We tend to favor currencies from countries with significant natural resource support. In addition, dollar depreciation trends tend to benefit emerging markets.
Summarizing:
We expect that following the chain reaction [inflation - high rate macro regime - falling sovereign debt prices] the US dollar will likely be the next to depreciate, leading to a significant rise in precious metals prices.
CONCLUSION
Even without sophisticated analysis, using just common sense, it becomes clear that perspective of gold market stands rosy. To be honest, guys, we're just entering in a big turmoil stage, and the growth that we saw before is just a warm up. Because the pot is heating up but not boiling yet. By the way, speaking about China low purchases is a tricky question. It's not that simple. The Chinese are serious about control the precious metal market. Take a look - physical demand in Asia hits new records regularly, he paper gold market cannot withstand real physical demand, so at the beginning of 2024 speculators actually capitulated, buying record long positions. Unofficial purchases of gold by central banks are growing, despite previous records. According to GWC, quarterly volumes of gray supplies are already significantly higher than public purchases.
There is a wonderful theory that 80% of all undisclosed purchases come from the PBOC:
