Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, August 10 - 14, 2020

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
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14,060
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History Says Gold Correction Could Lead to Big Rally!
This could mean the same thing - we're at V wave right now and drop below 2011 top will be II wave of new huge cycle. At least this theory corresponds to this idea very well...
For us it seems that current rally will not last too long, as it is Vth, then somewhere around 2200-2300.
Collapse is due vaccine, I suppose...
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,060
Greetings everybody,

On daily chart we keep watching for B&B "Buy" around K-area and Oversold level. Gold was collapsed due announcing of vaccine here, in Russia. But, situation was difficult in economy, gold start rising even before pandemic, thus, some upside return sooner or later but should happen. Thus, as we have some strong weekly levels as well, we could get B&B on weekly chart later.
The thing that is really worry me is long-term perspective of the gold, as it might happen that we're in Vth upside wave. It means that this is last wave of upside cycle and it has limited upside potential. After that huge collapse should follow as gold will start forming 2nd wave of all time cycle... But this is different story..
gold_d_13_08_20.png


On 4H chart, as we've said we have another B&B but in opposite direction. It is start working, showing reaction on resistance area. Here you also could see the potential target of daily B&B - 1978-1993 Fib levels. As we've said - we do not intend to trade it but it's target could provide us entry level:

gold_4h_13_08_20.png


On 1H chart we see that 3/8 pullback is done and now it is a question, whether we will get downside AB-CD to 5/8 support (as it is suggested by 4H B&B), getting "222" Buy as well, or, market starts upside action immediately from triangle consolidation. Anyway, it probably will be some AB=CD upside pattern that agrees with 5/8 resistance level:
gold_1h_13_08_20.png
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,060
Greetings everybody,

Well, I'm really hope that we would be able to close this trade today and it would be nice if Retail Sales helps us with this...
By far market slowly but still goes higher:
gold_d_14_08_20.png


On 4H chart 3/8 resistance is passed and price hits intermediate COP target, showing minor retracement after that. In fact, we have two Fib levels 1978 and 1993 that both are important and I would say 1978 even more important as it is based on the thrust down:
gold_4h_14_08_20.png


1H chart shows another target, which is 1975 - butterfly extension. Thus, we have 1975-1993 target range. Let's see what data we will get and what volatility will come. It is preferable to out before weekend, so use the common sense, watch of Retail sales situation and choose the target level. The only thing that we definitely must do now - is to move stops to breakeven...
gold_1h_14_08_20.png
 

S.chakrabortty2011

Private, 1st Class
Messages
59
Hi,
I am following this week thread post for gold daily B&B buy trade in daily candle. Last day was still below quote.
On daily chart we keep watching for B&B "Buy" around K-area and Oversold level.

Kindly anyone help me to understand on when this trade turned to a confirmed B&B trade in day? i was just waiting and waiting and missed the trade. Thanks in advance.
 

Stag

Sergeant
Messages
206
Hi guys, Sive asked me to share my Elliott Wave Principle based view on Gold so let me show you how I see it.

The bottomline: The advance's internal structure off 1454 lows along with the Kennedy channels suggest at least one more new high is probable before a major corrective setback starts towards the sub 1700 area.

Monthly / Weekly

One probable interpretation is that a major top is in the making, possibly an Ending Diagonal. This pattern occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone too far too fast – and as you can see Gold meets this criteria.

Subwaves of an ED always subdivide into zigzags or double zigzags which are corrective patterns but they are building a terminal move in the direction of the ruling trend – up. The internal structure suggests that this terminal sequence is not complete yet – we can expect new highs this year and beyond.

XAUUSD_200814_Mn.gif


XAUUSD_200814_w.gif


Daily

Zooming in on the decline from 2070 it does look impulse in nature so my working assumption is that this decline is just wave “A” of a still unfolding ABC pattern. That would likely be the case if this ABC decline will complete near to 1860 (upper yellow zone) touching it two times - keep an eye on whether prices breach this zone or not. At time of writing we can use 1860 area as working support for higher.

As long as 1860 area stays intact against a complete ABC pullback, I will keep the focus on higher to complete five waves above the previous top.

XAUUSD_200814_d.gif
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
14,060
Hi guys, Sive asked me to share my Elliott Wave Principle based view on Gold so let me show you how I see it.
Thanks a lot, mate. I'll move it to new Gold weekly thread. As it is very important, especially for long term view.
Monthly all-time analysis confirms my worry that we might be in the final Vth.

Stag, and how deep the drop could be on your first chart, once the Vth will be in place? At least what the minimum drop by EW? And whether this will the II wave of new all time cycle?
 

Stag

Sergeant
Messages
206
You are welcome, mate.

Nature is not self-destructive just follows its own rules. As Elliott observed, natural wave patterns form larger and smaller versions of themselves - this means the price activity is fractal. The Wave Principle identifies trend, countertrend, the maturity of a trend and also signals the return of the dominant trend - a complete cycle composed of 8 waves. The larger degree completes the larger the correction that follows - just like we can see in Gold. The good news is that by applying the rules, we can determine the most likely levels from where it becomes a reality and where and when countertrend moves will end.

Assuming Gold will terminate with the ED scenario in my previous post, once an ending diagonal terminates, we know that a sharp and swift reversal starts that goes below to the level where it began and typically much further - if it really takes the form of an ED on the monthly chart.

The first warning sign that a major decline could be in development if we saw a single impulsive drop below 1454. That would signal that a major decline is in development. However, If we saw a complete ABC pattern ending there, it would signal a bullish opportunity, even towards new highs.

An impulsive dip with monthly close below 1046 will signal that Gold might have peaked
. An impulsive attempt taking out that low may set the stage for further decline towards the next critical key level at 252. If it breaks we can expect a multi-year decline ending between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of wave 1 located somewhere between 200 & 100 - incredible depth, but that’s the reality when a cycle this big ends.
 

Stag

Sergeant
Messages
206
Guys, I wrote bad numbers for the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels for wave 2. The correct values are around 1000 - 800 range (instead of 200 - 100). My bad, sorry for that.
 
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