Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, July 27 - 31, 2020

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,905
Greetings everybody,

Today we need to discuss a special thing particular for today session. As we've suggested, it is more probable that gold returns to "A" top before retracement starts and now this is has happened due very dovish Fed statement yesterday. Our MACD divergence also is confirmed.
gold_1h_29_07_20.png


Today we will get US GDP release that is expected on -35% level, that absolute record, not seen since Great depression. Recent GDP in Germany shows -10% contraction, slightly worse than expected. It is released few minutes ago.
So, on gold market nothing will happen until GDP numbers. Positive numbers should trigger the retracement. "Positive" means better than -35%. Even -10% will be positive.

Technically, for us it is crucial to get drop below 1920 area, because this is previous all time top on the gold. As today is 30th of July, we could get monthly close below 1920, and this will be W&R of the previous top that technically is very important. Simultaneously our 1H Double Top will be triggered...

So, if you want to gamble a bit, you could take a bet on good GDP with stops above "A". If not - wait for GDP, drop below 1920 and only after that you could plan bearish trades. Now we do not have yet confirmed bearish setup on Gold.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
13,905
Greetings everybody,

Gold, as well as FX market stands under impact of strong fundamental factors and that explains why we do not see any reaction on Overbought level on monthly and weekly charts. Big week is coming to an end, it was significant swing on gold to 1976, market probably will close above 1920 and we will not get W&R on monthly chart.

It means that there are two ways on gold - sideways consolidation to leave overbought levels and then upside continuation to monthly 2075$ target, or - direct slow action the target without consolidation.

I still hope that some profit taking will follow. On 4H chart GDP impact was not as strong as on FX markets and gold was not able to set the new top here. We could get bearish grabber instead within few hours:
gold_4h_31_07_20.png


On 1H chart we have triangle consolidation with puny W&R of the top. It could mean that market slowly drifts lower today, back inside the triangle. And then we will see what will happen...

gold_1h_31_07_20.png
 
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