Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,655
Greetings everybody,
Today we need to discuss a special thing particular for today session. As we've suggested, it is more probable that gold returns to "A" top before retracement starts and now this is has happened due very dovish Fed statement yesterday. Our MACD divergence also is confirmed.
Today we will get US GDP release that is expected on -35% level, that absolute record, not seen since Great depression. Recent GDP in Germany shows -10% contraction, slightly worse than expected. It is released few minutes ago.
So, on gold market nothing will happen until GDP numbers. Positive numbers should trigger the retracement. "Positive" means better than -35%. Even -10% will be positive.
Technically, for us it is crucial to get drop below 1920 area, because this is previous all time top on the gold. As today is 30th of July, we could get monthly close below 1920, and this will be W&R of the previous top that technically is very important. Simultaneously our 1H Double Top will be triggered...
So, if you want to gamble a bit, you could take a bet on good GDP with stops above "A". If not - wait for GDP, drop below 1920 and only after that you could plan bearish trades. Now we do not have yet confirmed bearish setup on Gold.
Today we need to discuss a special thing particular for today session. As we've suggested, it is more probable that gold returns to "A" top before retracement starts and now this is has happened due very dovish Fed statement yesterday. Our MACD divergence also is confirmed.
Today we will get US GDP release that is expected on -35% level, that absolute record, not seen since Great depression. Recent GDP in Germany shows -10% contraction, slightly worse than expected. It is released few minutes ago.
So, on gold market nothing will happen until GDP numbers. Positive numbers should trigger the retracement. "Positive" means better than -35%. Even -10% will be positive.
Technically, for us it is crucial to get drop below 1920 area, because this is previous all time top on the gold. As today is 30th of July, we could get monthly close below 1920, and this will be W&R of the previous top that technically is very important. Simultaneously our 1H Double Top will be triggered...
So, if you want to gamble a bit, you could take a bet on good GDP with stops above "A". If not - wait for GDP, drop below 1920 and only after that you could plan bearish trades. Now we do not have yet confirmed bearish setup on Gold.