Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY June 06 - 10, 2022

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,474
Greetings everybody,

So, once again we see that patience is rewarded. Yesterday we've discussed potential short-term bullish context on the gold market, we have strong support level but still we miss the reversal action. Today situation has changed.

In general on daily chart performance is bullish, not just because of the MACD trend, but because of price. Gold tightly stands under resistance, without any strong pullback. It means that price is building an energy and increases chances on possible upside breakout challenge. Besides, minor COP target is not reached yet:
gold_d_08_06_22.png


On 4H chart trend turns bullish market is moving out from K-support area, mentioned yesterday:
gold_4h_08_06_22.png


And on 1H chart we're getting right now the pattern - reverse H&S pattern. Now all components of the context stand in place. Thus, we've done necessary preparation for decision making, giving us maximum probability, although always chances for setup failure exist, this is just the part of the game.
gold_1h_08_06_22.png
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,474
Greetings everybody,

Sorry, guys, yesterday I've confused videos, although later I've replaced it, but it was not as important to this moment as in the morning... Hopefully that we have text updates as well.

On daily chart not too many things have changed. Context remains bullish market is coiling around resistance. Now it extremely sensitive to coming CPI report tomorrow. And on the 1H chart we see some signs of weakness, or uncertainty maybe.
gold_d_09_06_22.png


On 4H chart trend is bullish as well. Here we intend to watch for bullish grabber, that might become very important for short-term performance. In general, gold stands well above K-support area. We would like to get more thrusty action, as current price now is a bit choppy, that put the shadow on the sentiment strength here:
gold_4h_09_06_22.png


Another moment that I do not really like here is downside reversal back below the neckline. Despite that yesterday upside action was with the good acceleration. If yo have taken position yesterday - it makes sense to move stops to breakeven. Deeper pullback, even to 1845$ area doesn't mean that upside action is impossible, but the price shape could be different, and different patterns could be formed.
gold_1h_09_06_22.png


For new position taking it would be better to split it for 1850 and $1845 levels entry, or just wait for $1845. But be aware of CPI data tomorrow and avoid long entry if downside thrust starts.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,474
Greetings everybody,

So, early signs of 1H H&S failure was good alert to stay aside from new long positions. Although intraday bounce has happened from our predefined level, but it was too short-term. Anyway, we do not cancel totally idea of possible 2-leg upside retracement on daily chart, especially because daily gold still has bullish context, but it makes sense to watch its starting point from lower levels. Appearing of the grabber, for example, might be good bonus:

gold_d_10_06_22.png


On 1H chart the failure of H&S pattern has become more evident. Now gold has erased AB-CD initial H&S pattern, forming the new lows. Besides, 10-year US yields are aiming higher, stubbornly standing above 3% level.
gold_1h_10_06_22.png


Thus, in current situation and with divergence on 4H chart as well, we think it makes sense to wait, as chances for deeper retracement are not small. We would be happy to consider 1820 support area on next week. Gold still has chances to show more extended upside action on daily chart, but we suggest that action could start from lower levels.

gold_4h_10_06_22.png
 
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