Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, June 13 - 17, 2022

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,884
Greetings everybody,

So, Gold shows the pullback that we've discussed recently and 1840 resistance has been touched. In general, daily picture stands the same and we still consider downside continuation in near term. But, we have few tactical details on intraday charts that we need to consider, as it relates to position taking tactics:

View attachment 77625

On 4H chart market is coiling around predefined resistance, but recent jump was strong enough and could let gold to move slightly higher. It doesn't change the overall trading plan, but makes us to be careful with some details.
View attachment 77626

It is obviously resistance exists around 1840 area, but upside action was strong. Now the pullback also stands a bit slow, which makes us think that Gold could try to complete upside AB=CD target. Thus, if you plan the short entry, it would be better to either wait for AB-CD completion around 1850$ resistance, or, split position at least and not sell total position right now. Take 30% if you want, but keep the rest for the case of upward continuation.
View attachment 77627
So, among all the central bank, TDS was spot-on in their 75 bps expectation. The follow-up press briefing and Q&A by Chairman Powell did not move markets like I would like, but I think I will still get my target entry on Silver at 20-50-40

As reported by Reuters today, Thursday 16-June 2022, Russian chief negotiator said on that Russia is ready to hold peace talks with Ukraine but added that they are yet to receive a response to their proposals from Kyiv, These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on risk sentiment during the European trading hours. However, I think that will have an impact on precious metals especially against the US$ recent 50+75bps rate hikes with further 50-75 bps rate hike expected near end July 2022. Wall Street's main indexes are likely to open deep in negative territory today.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,284
As reported by Reuters today, Thursday 16-June 2022, Russian chief negotiator said on that Russia is ready to hold peace talks with Ukraine but added that they are yet to receive a response to their proposals from Kyiv, These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on risk sentiment during the European trading hours. However, I think that will have an impact on precious metals especially against the US$ recent 50+75bps rate hikes with further 50-75 bps rate hike expected near end July 2022. Wall Street's main indexes are likely to open deep in negative territory today.
I'm skeptic on any negotiations rumors. Its' too late. Putin has offered to find consensus in December. He was ignored. Now peace is possible only on Russia's conditions that's absolutely unacceptable for overseas masters. I suspect that there will be no Ukraine within 1-2 years. But this is just IMHO.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,284
Greetings everybody,

So, markets across the board shows nice upside bounces, including gold. Although we've talked about 1840-1850 resistance area yesterday and even thought to search chances to go short - now it seems that we should postpone it for higher levels.

Because it is important moment happens on daily chart - trend has turned bullish. It means that daily/intraday context stands bullish right now and we need to wait different bearish signs later to make a decision on going short. Now we do not consider it:
gold_d_17_06_22.png


On 4H chart market hits the OP Agreement around 1850, but CD leg is fast and increases chances that gold proceeds to XOP @ 1875$. Thus, maybe XOP will become the next level where we start watching for bearish signs.
gold_4h_17_06_22.png

Those who have long positions, probably, could hold it, just manage stops. For taking new long position and 1875 potential target is possible to consider the pullback out from 1850 Agreement area. We could get something like that before upside continuation:
gold_1h_17_06_22.png
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,884
I'm skeptic on any negotiations rumors. Its' too late. Putin has offered to find consensus in December. He was ignored. Now peace is possible only on Russia's conditions that's absolutely unacceptable for overseas masters. I suspect that there will be no Ukraine within 1-2 years. But this is just IMHO.
Yes, that trip was a big ho-ha for nothing and was for scoring political points at home. To me, seems like the Ukraine is a sacrificial pawn to the USA & their Allies in their game against Russia and what will ultimately become of that nation is still up in the air.

Well, looks like precious metals are kinda in limbo waiting for something to happen before moving either way.

Cheers & all the best.
 
Top