Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, May 15 - 19, 2023

Greetings everybody,

It is nothing new on gold market by far. And I thought, (if we consider AUD today in FX update), why not to take a look at NZD instead of Gold market? Just to avoid many questions because setup there is very similar to AUD. BTW, it indirectly confirms our suggestion on USD strength and pressure on gold market...

On weekly NZD we have bearish grabber, suggesting drop below the recent lows. But potentially we also consider more extended action in a way of full sized AB-CD right to 0.60 area and 5/8 support. Pay attention that deeper retracement doesn't contradict to idea of monthly bullish reverse H&S setup (and huge bullish engulfing pattern, that you could see on quarterly charts). In fact, action to 0.6 is just a part of the larger bullish picture:

On daily chart market stands in tight consolidation, a kind of flag pattern, after "222" Sell pattern. The major risk here is potential shift of "222" into Butterfly with upside breakout. But, based on price shape, we think that this risk is small. Because downside action has started with bearish reversal month (and week), recent upside action has clear AB-CD shape that makes evident the retracement feature of the pullback. Now, downside action is again accelerating. And this is absolutely not typical in a moment when price has to accelerate, if we suggest bullish continuation action. It is too many contradictions with normal bullish price behavior.

If you decide to try this scenario, on 1H chart you could consider few levels for short position taking. Most probable is 0.6282 - XOP target and butterfly 1.618 extension. Potentially it might be larger AB-CD up to major 5/8 level around 0.63 area, but with less probability. The most simple way is enter with 1/3 trading volume - 1/3right now, 1/3 around 0.6280 and 1/3 around 0.63 if it will be achieved. Otherwise- try to catch the level that you like more, or enter on minor pullback once the downside action start accelerating:
Greetings everybody,

Sorry for delay... So, as we've warned, gold remains under pressure due to rising demand for USD. In fact, even if debt ceil problem will be resolved, US Treasury comes with huge new borrowing and start grabbing liquidity from everywhere. So, in nearest few sessions, hardly we get some relief. Right now gold stands at strong daily support area and oversold. Today probably we have the floor around 1950$.


Daily chart now significantly increases chances on downside continuation. We have bearish reversal swing, and after technical reaction on oversold level, another leg down might be formed.

On 4H chart most probable target is XOP of the same AB-CD pattern around 1930$

For now we do not see what could be done here. Bears can't step in, because of oversold and K-support area and need to wait for the pullback. Bulls, in turn, although we have bullish daily "Stretch" pattern, have no intraday background - should wait for some reversal pattern, that could be used for position taking.

Thus, today, probably is nothing to do on gold...