Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, May 16 - 20, 2022

gpeter991

Private, 1st Class
Messages
53
Hi Peter, yes, this is our central scenario. It is dynamic and terms could change, because it mostly depends on the US economy and the speed of negative processes there. But at this moment I do not see yet signs that major reversal starts. The blow of stock market bubble just has started and only first money starts moving to US Treasuries. This process should become faster. Besides, we should get more negative statistics beyond the inflation. Its appearing already, but this is the initial stage of the process. So, the fruit should ripen. So, gold still remains under pressure by far.
Thanks much Prof. Morten :)
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,092
Greetings everybody,

So, grabbers yesterday have worked nice, we haven't needed even #2 scenario. Now is about the targets... on daily chart market is not at overbought but we have 1862-1867 K-area. Next week we intend to focus on possible short entry around it - bears, standby.
gold_d_20_05_22.png


Meantime on 4H chart market is coming to OP that stands around 1856 and makes an Agreement with the K-resistance. But, here is a tricky moment with the OP. It might be important if you keep long position:
gold_4h_20_05_22.png


On 1H chart market is forming the butterfly with 1.618 final target around 1853$. At the same time, take a look at the major lows around 1790 - the upward action stands not from the absolute low but from 1790 level. If we use it as "A" on 4H chart, then we get OP not at 1856 but at 1853 - which is perfectly agrees with the butterfly.
I do not know, maybe gold could reach 1856 and even 1862 today. But odds suggest that is safer to book result on Friday around 1853$. If you still intend to keep longs - tight the stops at least.
gold_1h_20_05_22.png
 

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,875
Hi Sive thank you for analysis on Gold which is tied to my trade of interest silver.
As it gets nearer to the next expect FED's rate hike, the mighty dollar gets stronger. Am I the only one to think that the recent weakening of the US$ is being orchestrated to help other countries whose currency took a beating against the mighty dollar which makes their imports, especially oil & gas and other essential commodities, that much more costly. Frankly, that's a very disconcerting though because I would not want to be caught in the sudden re-strengthening of the US$.
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
16,092
Hi Sive thank you for analysis on Gold which is tied to my trade of interest silver.
As it gets nearer to the next expect FED's rate hike, the mighty dollar gets stronger. Am I the only one to think that the recent weakening of the US$ is being orchestrated to help other countries whose currency took a beating against the mighty dollar which makes their imports, especially oil & gas and other essential commodities, that much more costly. Frankly, that's a very disconcerting though because I would not want to be caught in the sudden re-strengthening of the US$.
Hi Rahman. IMO, current bounce seems too small to relay it with the reason that you've specified. The events of such scale need stronger and longer process. But 100 pips bounce on FX market hardly makes EU headache easier.
Currently we have not enough information and signs to say that USD rally is over. At least I do not see them yet.
 
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