Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, September 23 - 27, 2019

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

So, D. Trump impeachment rush has brought an adjustment to our bullish scenario as gold has dropped deeper than we've suggested, right to major 5/8 Fib support. It doesn't change our major scenario by far, but makes impact on short-term strategy.

In fact, our invalidation point is recent lows, which is also the neckline of direct H&S pattern. To make our scenario work, H&S has to fail. That is what we will keep an eye on here. There are two patterns to watch here - potential bullish grabber and butterfly that could finalize all weekly targets.

Conversely, drop below neckline tells that bullish scenario is vanished and gold is moving with daily H&S pattern:

Although drop on 4H chart looks strong - it is not gold reasons stand beyond it, but just artificial D. Trump impeachment which looks absolutely contriving. So, although the shape of collapse is impressive, it's background is arguable. This keeps bulls in game.
Drop below 1500 area will turn advantage in favor of the bears. And it would be better to not take any longs below it.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

At first glance it seems that gold has lost all chances on upside scenario as it turned down right at the point where it has to - at the top of right arm of daily H&S pattern. Bearish pattern shows correct progress and gives no reasons to doubt on its performance.

But... we have few objections, or, at least things that we have to take in consideration. The major one is invalidation point of bullish scenario - it stands at weekly chart and will be broken only when EUR drops below the neckline. Second - today EUR analysis identifies potential 3-Drive Buy pattern on daily chart. It means that today or in weekend we could get some strong external driving factor - political or economical. Something could happen.

Finally, market doesn't show strong downside continuation by far, and if it will close higher today - we could get bullish grabber here as well. Thus, it means that although bullish scenario right now is not as attractive as it was and we should not take new longs by far, still, it is not time to go short as well:

On 4H chart gold drops below 5/8 but it doesn't show real thrusting action, mostly showing flat consolidation around support and pivot levels:

Here we should stay on guard and keep an eye on any bullish signs around. For example - now we have butterfly, but it easily could turn to reverse H&S, if we will be correct:

Thus, we do not totally deny our bullish scenario as it still has chances to succeed. Second - no shorts by far.