Intraday Forex Friday, April 15 (EURUSD, USDJPY, etc). Dollar sets to end the week higher, on reinforced expectations for faster US policy tightening.


Hi everyone. This observation is made around 08:15 UTC today, with 30 minutes time frames. The Resistance and Support Line were constructed according to Fibonacci retrenchment. Any discussion is welcomed.

Stocks fell in Asia on Friday as only few markets open amid Easter holidays. Investors also digested mixed earnings results and rising inflation, as well as development from the Russia-Ukraine war.
The major currencies’ pairs move within tight tracks on Friday , affected by the market holiday, waiting to update the trends and targets expectations for the upcoming period.

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  • The euro slipped 0.20% to $1.08069 on Friday, heading back toward the overnight low of $1.0776, a level unseen since April 2020.​
  • For the week, euro has dropped 0.43%.​
  • A more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials on Thursday reinforced expectations for faster U.S. policy tightening. New York Fed President John Williams said that a half-point rate rise next month was "a very reasonable option," in a further sign that even more cautious policymakers are on board with faster monetary tightening.​
  • By contrast, ECB President Christine Lagarde concluded its latest meeting with cautious steps, saying they would start raising interest rates only "some time" after it has ended its net asset purchases in Q3.​
  • President Lagarde also added that Eurozone growth in Q1 remained weak due to pandemic restrictions, with price rises have become more widespread and that upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased.​
  • The EUR/USD pair bounced from the 2-years low, though bearish case remains firmly in place as it trades below bearish moving averages, while technical indicators turned lower within negative levels, with room to extend their slides. The RSI indicator, in the meantime, consolidates at around 41.​
  • The 1.0730 level is a strong long-term static support level, and remains on the losing side. The next relevant bearish target is 1.0665, around the March 2020 low.​
  • Most financial markets will be closed on the last day of the week amid the Good Friday holiday. Nevertheless, the U.S. will release some macroeconomic figures, including March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization and the April New York State Manufacturing Index.​
Important Levels to Watch for Today:​
  • Resistance line of 1.09365 and 1.10005.​
  • Support line of 1.07295 and 1.06655.​

  • The yen’s relentless drop continued Friday, as it weakened for an 11th straight day against the dollar on bets further divergence between U.S. and Japanese interest rates are inevitable.​
  • The Japanese currency fell as much as 0.50% to 126.486 per dollar to extend a 20-year low. It is now headed for a 1.30% weekly drops against the greenback.​
  • Benchmark Treasury yields surged in the U.S. overnight, widening the gap with their peers in Japan. Japan’s currency has been in freefall this year as the dovish Bank of Japan keeps local yields anchored to the floor while their Treasury equivalents surge on expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes and more hawkish comments from its officials.​
  • The yen has also suffered from Japan’s position as a commodity importer and is the worst-performing Group-of-10 currency against the dollar with a decline of about 9% this year. While a weak yen boosts Japanese exports, it inflates import costs for energy and food products that have already seen prices jump due to the war in Ukraine.​
Important Levels to Watch for Today:​
  • Resistance line of 126.525 and 126.964.​
  • Support line of 125.103 and 124.664.​

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