Intraday Forex Friday, March 18 (EURUSD, USDJPY, etc). Dollar in doldrums as traders weigh Fed’s rate plan and continuation of peace talks in Ukraine.


Hi everyone. This observation is made around 06:50 UTC today, with 30 minutes time frames. The Resistance and Support Line were constructed according to Fibonacci retrenchment. Any discussion is welcomed.

The equity markets turned volatile on Friday, as cautious sentiment prevails, with investors continue to weigh on the slow progress in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, FOMC’s latest hawkish tilt policy, the surge in oil and commodities prices, and coupled with worries over the COVID-19 situation in China.

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  • The single currency was slightly weaker at $1.10914 on Friday, but still headed up 1.70% for the week, its first winning week in six.​
  • The continuation of optimistic peace talks even as fighting still rages in Ukraine has seen demand for safe havens like the dollar dry up.​
  • While sentiment for euro improved after Russia avoided default on dollar-denominated debt.​
  • EUR/USD also strengthened after an upward revision to Eurozone Feb consumer prices on Thursday pushed the 10-year German bund yield up to a 3-1/4 year high, which boosted the euro’s interest rate differentials.​
  • The EUR/USD is climbing back towards the 1.115 resistance line as buyers attempt to form a rally. Given the rise in selling pressure, the pair may struggle to drive a break of the resistance area. The price line represents the lower bound of a previous consolidation channel. Momentum indicators are bullish with moderate upward trajectories.​
Important Levels to Watch for Today:​
  • Resistance line of 1.11586 and 1.12042.​
  • Support line of 1.10109 and 1.09652.​

  • The dollar strengthened 0.16% to 118.774 per yen, not far from a six-year high of 119.116 reached Wednesday, and was on course for a 1.18% weekly advance, following 2.22% gains in the previous period, which was its most in two years.​
  • The yen was weighed after the Bank of Japan left its ultra-accommodative policy settings unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, leaving it an outlier among developed-world central banks which are exiting pandemic emergency measures.​
  • The central bank also warned of fresh risks from the Ukraine crisis, which it said was destabilizing financial markets and sharply pushing up raw material costs.​
  • Markets are focusing on Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's briefing for his views on the inflation outlook and the weak yen, which is adding further upward pressure on already rising fuel costs.​
  • The USD/JPY pair however has stalled at below the 119.30 resistance line, on waning bullish momentum. A rise in selling pressure indicates that a reversal may be on the cards as bearish sentiment appears to be rising. Momentum indicators are bullish although RSI is flattening beyond the overbought zone.​
Important Levels to Watch for Today:​
  • Resistance line of 119.302 and 119.988.​
  • Support line of 117.930 and 117.244.​

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