Intraday Forex Friday, October 29 (EURUSD, USDJPY, etc). Dollar steady as payrolls loom; Sterling staggers.


Hi everyone. This observation is made around 06:15 UTC today, with 30 minutes time frames. The Resistance and Support Line were constructed according to Fibonacci retrenchment. Any discussion is welcomed.

Shares were mixed on Friday, failed to latch on to overnight Nasdaq performance, as debt crisis routs Chinese developers' shares, again.
Gold headed for a weekly gain, while oil on track for a second straight week decline.

Currencies held in tight ranges on Friday, ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that could sway the timing of Fed interest rate increases. Investors have been forced to reset monetary policy expectations this week, after some of the biggest global central banks knocked back bets for early rate hikes.

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  • The euro was flat at $1.15552, but stays close just above a three-week low touched yesterday.​
  • Investors took a more balanced view of Fed monetary policy and the overall picture painted by fresh upbeat data for the U.S. services industry.​
  • Bank of England's shock decision on Thursday to defer an interest rate hike hammered on the euro. Long-dated eurozone bond yields had been edging higher earlier but dipped with the BoE gyrations.​
  • Bond yields dropped both in Britain and Europe with Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the eurozone, falling 6 basis points, to a one-month low of -0.23%.​
  • The euro also remained under pressure against the dollar with the ECB seemingly far behind the Fed in tightening. ECB President Lagarde on Wednesday pushed back on market bets for a rate hike as soon as next October and said it was very unlikely such a move would occur in 2022.​
  • The ECB is aware of people's fears about high inflation but is very unlikely to raise interest rates next year, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday.​
  • The EUR/USD is once again testing the 1.153 support line which could indicate a break is imminent, especially considering the number of recent tests and the apparent lack of conviction from buyers.​
Important Levels to Watch for:​
  • Resistance line of 1.16542 and 1.16918.​
  • Support line of 1.15326 and 1.14950.​

  • The dollar kept within its opening mark against the yen on Friday, bought 113.672 yen, on track to a 0.20% weekly decline.​
  • The USD/JPY slumps during the day, despite broad dollar strength across the board. Lower U.S. T-bond yields weighed on the pair, benefiting the Japanese yen.​
  • The yen also was strengthened on the outlook for Japan to reopen its economy from pandemic restrictions after the Nikkei reported that the Japanese government is looking to restart the issuance of long-term business visas as part of an easing of pandemic border controls.​
  • The USD/JPY has begun to pullback and may now float back towards the 113.50 and 113.24 support lines. The current trading range has remained intact since October, as there appears to be little appetite to drive price action.​
Important Levels to Watch for Today:​
  • Resistance line of 114.340 and 114.598.​
  • Support line of 113.506 and 113.248.​

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