Intraday Forex Friday, September 17 (EURUSD, USDJPY, etc) Dollar headed for its winning week after retail sales boost & earlier Fed policy tightening.


Hi everyone. This observation is made around 5:00 UTC today, with 30 minutes time frames. The Resistance and Support Line were constructed according to Fibonacci retrenchment. Any discussion is welcomed.

Asian shares steadied in Friday trading but are on course for a its weekly drop, subdued by worries about the global economic recovery, impact of the Delta strain, implications of elevated inflation and the upheavals in China.
Oil on track to to post fourth weekly gains, while gold were set for a second weekly loss.
The dollar meanwhile held it overnight gains after a raft of strong U.S. economic data rekindled expectations of an earlier policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

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  • The euro hit a three-week low of $1.17505 overnight and last traded at $1.17715 on Friday.​
  • The euro rose slightly on the day, but still meandering around yesterday’s low, as the riskier currency continued to be hit by the strengthening greenback following strong U.S. core retail sales and jobless claims data for August 2021, which pushed the T-note yields higher and was hawkish for Fed QE tapering.​
  • The euro also weighted on the dovish ECB comments on Thursday. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said monetary policy is needed "to maintain favourable financing conditions for a sufficiently long period for the economy to continue its recovery and to offset the negative impact of the pandemic on inflation."​
  • Support awaits at 1.1733, which was a swing high in mid-August. It is followed by 1.1706.​
  • While resistance is at 1.1822, the zone which has kept the currency pair down throughout this week. The next level is at 1.1849.​
Important Levels to Watch for:​
  • Resistance line of 1.18224 and 1.18497.​
  • Support line of 1.17339 and 1.17065.​

  • The dollar bounced back to 109.837 yen, having gained 0.32% on Thursday and off Wednesday’s 6-week low of 109.113.​
  • The rally in U.S. yields lend support to the greenback, while the Nikkei advancement on the day reducing the safe-haven demand for the yen.​
  • The Bank of Japan is set to maintain its massive stimulus next week, as supply bottlenecks caused by factory shutdowns in Asia weigh on an economy already wobbling from the hit to consumption from the pandemic.​
  • The yen has so far shown limited reaction to ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership race, which will formally kick off on Friday ahead of Sept. 29 vote. The LDP’s parliamentary dominance means the party’s new leader will become prime minister.​
  • Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it defended 109.115 support and rebounded. But upside is held well below 110.461 resistance so far. On the downside, break of 109.37 will argue that larger fall is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen back to 109.115 support. And on the upside, above 110.204 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.461.​
Important Levels to Watch for Today:​
  • Resistance line of 110.204 and 110.461.​
  • Support line of 109.372 and 109.115.​
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