Ireland in trouble - Early warning signs for the death of the EUR?

[Cesil]

Any takers?!

Lack of control over monetary policy must be driving some finance ministers to distration surely??!!

 

[Pharaoh]

One or two countries ditching the Euro won't kill it, but even the thought of the Eurozone losing members will very likely drive the value down if people take the threat seriously.

 

[Cesil]

One or two leaving perhaps wouldn't kill it, but depending on how big-a-hitters they were it could be the straw the breaks the camels back. Interesting all the rhetoric pre-G20 coming from France & Germany, particularly their reluctance to use their surpluses to help bail out other struggling EU economies such as Spain who've got themselves up a certain creek without a proverbial paddle... Eastern Europe (inc EU member states in that area) are also banging down the IMF's door for bail out money - something of a rapidily deteriorating resource (possibly causing the IMF to sell a good chunk of its gold reserves - shorting gold wouldn't be a bad medium term trade...). Party on!!

 

[ChrisEccles]

One or two countries ditching the Euro won't kill it, but even the thought of the Eurozone losing members will very likely drive the value down if people take the threat seriously.

Being from UK, but trading, as I do, from the Republic of Ireland, I see the economy
here from the inside, and "feeling" the reaction of finance ministers and others on
local news channels is a valuable resource when looking at prospects for the
Euro generally, and the Irish economy in particular. It's impossible for
traders living and working outside Ireland to pick up on these subtle moves
within Irish politics, which has always been a bin of worms, anyway.
-
I don't consider that there is any real threat of Ireland leaving the Eurozone,
whatever speculation may be bandied about. It simply isn't an option for
the foreseeable future. Having its strength in a principally agrarian
economy which will survive, whatever happens in the service sector and
all the other "let's pretend we're a cross between the USA and England"
crap that has plagued this country over the past three decades, Ireland
has an unassailable asset. Irish farm produce will always have a strong
customer base, inside and outside the zone, and Irish farmers, when all
the shrapnel has settled, will still be the only guys with any real money at
the bank.
-
Ireland's contemplating deserting the zone at any time would be a disaster
for its farm policies, set in stone for the past 25 years, and would send
the country into a tailspin from which it is doubtful anything of worth
could be salvaged.

-
Chris