iTrade Weekly Report

GazFx

Private, 1st Class
Messages
69
I entered two trades last week. The first was a buy in US Crude Oil, the second a buy in US Natural Gas. Both are looking good to date, and I expect these positive results to continue.

Results to date are tabled below:

Statement.png



Both technical and fundamental factors remain positive for oil and gas, so I will be hanging on to these positions for at least a little while yet. I give a brief breakdown below.


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GazFx

Private, 1st Class
Messages
69
I closed my buy position in US Natural Gas this week for a $255.87 net profit. I think this uptrend will continue over time, but these daily swaps really hurt when prices are drifting sideways. I am out, and will stay out for the time being.


NGASH4.png


Transaction history from last week:

Statement.png


US Crude Oil

CRUDEOILDaily2.png


My US Crude Oil buy remains open. Oil prices are now approaching resistance, established at $76.780 back in October, 2018, and offering a potential profit target or scaling-out opportunity. I have $359.10 floating profit.

The fundamentals are strengthening their support for higher prices. Oil stocks continue to trend downwards, now for six straight weeks in a row, suggesting strong demand. The Baker Hughes rig count keeps growing.

My conclusion - hold buy position for now. Look at these fundamentals.
united-states-api-crude-oil-stock-change.png

Stocks of crude oil in the United States fell by 8.153 million barrels in the week ended June 25th, 2021, following 7.199 million drop in the previous week, and compared with market expectations of a 4.460 million decline, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. source: American Petroleum Institute (API)

united-states-crude-oil-stocks-change.png

US crude oil inventories dropped by 6.718 million barrels in the June 25th week, a sixth consecutive period of decline and compared with market consensus of a 4.686 million fall, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed. Meantime, gasoline inventories were up by 1.522 million barrels, defying forecasts of a 0.886 million decrease. source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

united-states-crude-oil-rigs.png

Crude Oil Rigs in the United States increased to 376 in July 2 from 372 in the previous week. source: Baker Hughes Company
 
Last edited:

RahmanSL

Major
Messages
2,852
I closed my buy position in US Natural Gas this week for a $255.87 net profit. I think this uptrend will continue over time, but these daily swaps really hurt when prices are drifting sideways. I am out, and will stay out for the time being.


View attachment 66550

Transaction history from last week:

View attachment 66551

US Crude Oil

View attachment 66552

My US Crude Oil buy remains open. Oil prices are now approaching resistance, established at $76.780 back in October, 2018, and offering a potential profit target or scaling-out opportunity. I have $359.10 floating profit.

The fundamentals are strengthening their support for higher prices. Oil stocks continue to trend downwards, now for six straight weeks in a row, suggesting strong demand. The Baker Hughes rig count keeps growing.

My conclusion - hold buy position for now. Look at these fundamentals.
View attachment 66553
Stocks of crude oil in the United States fell by 8.153 million barrels in the week ended June 25th, 2021, following 7.199 million drop in the previous week, and compared with market expectations of a 4.460 million decline, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. source: American Petroleum Institute (API)

View attachment 66554
US crude oil inventories dropped by 6.718 million barrels in the June 25th week, a sixth consecutive period of decline and compared with market consensus of a 4.686 million fall, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed. Meantime, gasoline inventories were up by 1.522 million barrels, defying forecasts of a 0.886 million decrease. source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

View attachment 66555
Crude Oil Rigs in the United States increased to 376 in July 2 from 372 in the previous week. source: Baker Hughes Company
@GazFx...generally agree with your post as I too believe the price of crude will be here for at least the next few weeks.
Initially, my broker charged negative swap for both "long" and "short" position" but, lucky me and without my having to ask, they pleasantly surprised me by deciding to credit me positive swap for "long" held position for WTI crude... US$4.02 for each 2.0 lot size and US$10.08 for 5.0 lot size. Furthermore, my broker don't charge any commission for oil, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. I supposed they get their commissions/profits from the slightly wider spreads.

Hopefully, Monday will have a gap-up to 76.200 because I have quite a number of "long" positions with TP at that level and that next week will be just as good a trading week as the previous one.
Cheers!
 

GazFx

Private, 1st Class
Messages
69
@GazFx...generally agree with your post as I too believe the price of crude will be here for at least the next few weeks.
Initially, my broker charged negative swap for both "long" and "short" position" but, lucky me and without my having to ask, they pleasantly surprised me by deciding to credit me positive swap for "long" held position for WTI crude... US$4.02 for each 2.0 lot size and US$10.08 for 5.0 lot size. Furthermore, my broker don't charge any commission for oil, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. I supposed they get their commissions/profits from the slightly wider spreads.

Hopefully, Monday will have a gap-up to 76.200 because I have quite a number of "long" positions with TP at that level and that next week will be just as good a trading week as the previous one.
Cheers!
@RahmanSL - thanks for the feedback. Looks like you will be taking some healthy profits this week.
 

GazFx

Private, 1st Class
Messages
69
I have deployed a strategic stop loss on my crude oil buy position. The stop is placed at 74.446, just beneath nearest support level. This trade is now risk-free, and it guarantees a $229 profit regardless of what happens next.

CRUDEOILH4.png
 

GazFx

Private, 1st Class
Messages
69
CRUDEOILH4.png


So I take a $229 profit.

Prices tumble, but have since bounced back, and we are still no wiser on the OPEC+ oil output agreement.

I am out for the moment, and waiting for another buy opportunity.

OPEC+ is in disagreement over production quotas. The U.A.E wants more, so no agreement to date. This should be interesting.

Even if agreement is reached, and an extra 500,000 barrels a day begin to flow, oil stocks are at historic lows and suppliers are struggling to keep pace, in the short-medium term at least. There is a global oil stock deficit.

Will update again soon.
 

GazFx

Private, 1st Class
Messages
69
I closed my buy position in US Crude Oil this week for a $223.25 net profit.

Statement.png


My strategic stop loss was triggered at 74.446, as prices tumbled after OPEC+ talks were abandoned.

CRUDEOILH1Light.png


As it sits, OPEC+ members want to increase oil production, the disagreement is over the increase amount. The UAE, for instance, agrees with increasing production, but says it “wants a level playing field”, which translated means, proportionally higher oil production over other OPEC+ participants.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals “strongly” support higher crude oil prices if oil production is not increased.

OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.


OPEC Meet.jpg


Strong positive fundamentals are driving crude oil prices higher. Crude oil inventories remain stubbornly low, and gasoline stocks have taken a tumble. Supply continues its tightening.

But then stories like this.

“Prices were weighed down early in the week by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+. “

So why did crude oil prices take a tumble?

Well, the reasoning is that if one member goes rogue, and sets its own production output, others may follow suit. A rush of new supply into the arena putting downward pressure on prices.

But look at the 4-hour chart. Prices have already recovered quite a bit. The fundamentals remain true, and prices should be rising. That is exactly what prices are doing right now.

CRUDEOILH4Light.png


All the activity in the 4-hour chart above, is contained within the last 9 price bars in the daily chart below. Barely a blip on the radar

The obvious uptrend is exactly what you would expect to see given that crude oil inventories are still negative, imports are flat, and the U.S. crude oil rig count, despite 10 straight weeks of increases, is unable to satisfy demand.

CRUDEOILDailyLight.png


The OPEC+ meeting has caused some unexpected volatility, but nothing more. While the fundamentals remain in their current status, with demand strongly out-performing supply, prices will continue to rise.

Just have to **wait for the next buy** opportunity.

While you wait, have a deep and meaningful meeting with the fundamentals below.

API Crude Oil Stocks Report

Stocks of crude oil in the United States fell by 7.983 million barrels in the week ended July 2nd, 2021, following an 8.153 million drop in the previous week and marking the seventh straight weekly decline, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. It compares with market expectations of a 3.925 million fall. source: [American Petroleum Institute (API)](http://www.api.org/)
united-states-api-crude-oil-stock-change.png


EIA Crude Oil Stocks Report

U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.

But gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Crude stockpiles in the US dropped by 6.866 million barrels in the July 2nd week, to the lowest level since February of 2020, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed. It is the 7th consecutive weekly decline, compared with market consensus of a 4.033 million fall. Meantime, gasoline inventories were down by 6.076 million barrels, much more than forecasts of a 2.176 million decrease, and the biggest decline in 4 months. source: [U.S. Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/)
united-states-crude-oil-stocks-change.png


Gasoline Stocks Change

Stocks of gasoline in the United States decreased by 6076 thousand barrels in the week ended July 2 of 2021, the biggest drop in 4 months. source: [U.S. Energy Information Administration](http://www.eia.gov/)
united-states-gasoline-stocks-change.png


Crude Oil Imports

Crude Oil Imports in the United States increased by 558 Thousand Barrels in the week ended July 2nd 2021. source: [U.S. Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/)
united-states-crude-oil-imports.png


Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

The rig count has risen for 10 straight weeks in a row, but inventories keep falling.

Crude Oil Rigs in the United States increased to 378 in July 9 from 376 in the previous week. source: [Baker Hughes Company](https://www.bakerhughes.com/)
united-states-crude-oil-rigs.png
 

GazFx

Private, 1st Class
Messages
69
I entered a buy trade on US Crude Oil at 74.673 late yesterday, based on the “known” fundamentals and current price action. That is, despite the uncertainty caused by OPEC+ production agreements, the fundamentals show that crude oil supply remains incredibly tight, and will continue for a while yet.

CRUDEOILH4.png


CRUDEOILDaily.png
 
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