iTrade Weekly Report

[GazFx]

We have to ask, "Is gold and silver truly reflecting supply and demand fundamentals, or is there manipulation at play?"

Seems I am not the only trader to question the integrity of the Gold and Silver markets, and recent price falls amid fundamentals that indicate prices should be rising. You might be interested in an article published by Ainslie Bullion this morning:

The cause of that second flash crash was over $4b of COMEX gold contracts being dumped in an illiquid period of the market further triggering stop losses having breached the ‘death cross’ and support of US$1750. Whilst technically this may have been algo driven, this is not how one exits a position to minimise any loss. Indeed it wreaks of the big bank spoofing that has banks and their trading desk participants being fined and convicted in recent months. This can only be deliberate or, as the great Dwight Schrute said “otherwise, it's just malfeasance for malfeasance's sake.”

 

[GazFx]

iTrade Weekly : Week ending Saturday, 14th August, 2021

No closed trades to report this week. My open position in Bitcoin is progressing nicely, as shown in the Bitcoin price chart below. Open profit is $1,077 to date, and the strategic stop-loss has locked in a guaranteed $540 if triggered.

Moving forward, I am shifting my focus away from gold and silver derivatives for the time being. I have been lucky so far, and able to avoid negative trades thanks to the 50 moving average and ratio indicator I use to confirm signals, but regardless, there is not much logic in committing capital to markets that "I think" are being manipulated. I say, stick with physical gold and silver accumulation, including bullion back crypto's, but avoid derivatives.

For U.S. Natural Gas the swaps hurt, but only while prices drift sideways. So NGAS is back on the agenda but restricted to "strong" trade signals only, whatever that means. Most likely a hybrid of technicals and fundamentals as with U.S. Crude Oil, only over a different time frame perhaps.

I have added Ethereum to the iTrade strategy mix, and for good reason. Bitcoin is tipped to hit a $100,000 price tag "soon", but guess what? Ethereum is tipped to surpass Bitcoin's value as it rolls-out ever improving technologies over coming weeks and months:

The crypto market rallies higher as indications of a Bitcoin on-chain supply squeeze take shape, and Ethereum successfully rolls out EIP1559. After breaking recent highs, the two largest crypto’s look ready to make a run up back to the highs. Let’s jump into some on-chain metrics and have a look at the driving force behind these moves. See the full article.

So until further notice, I am monitoring U.S. Crude Oil, U.S. Natural Gas, Bitcoin, and Ethereum.

U.S. Crude Oil fundamentals have changed. Oil production is increasing globally just as the Delta variant impacts economic recovery. Prices have generally declined since the peak of $76.88 a barrel on 6th July 2021. The daily and H1 trend is down, but H4 remains up at close of trade this week. But H4 looks set to trigger a sell signal, and when it does, all three time frames will be confluent and pointing downwards. Watch for developments from the Monday open.

U.S. Natural Gas. As predicted earlier, the uptrend continues but appears to be weakening. In the daily price chart, prices have pulled-back towards the end of last week, and the natural gas ratio looks set to make a cross-up. This would indicate a potential trend reversal or consolidation period to follow.

Ethereum. I am still "window shopping" the Ethereum opportunity, but price trend does confirm the fundamental news so far. You only need to view the daily price chart below to see this. Not much more to say this week, but I will be looking for entry opportunities as we move forward.

 

[GazFx]

iTrade Weekly : Week ending Saturday, 21st August, 2021

Two closed trades this week in Ethereum and Bitcoin for $678.40 net profit. I also opened a sell position in U.S. Crude Oil, which remains open and showing $296.56 open profit to date. No stop-loss set for my U.S. Crude Oil trade at present, but a strategic stop-loss will be placed just above support at 65.500 shortly after the Monday open. This will eliminate risk and lock-in some guaranteed profit.

U.S. Crude Oil: In last weeks report I said: "The daily and H1 trend is down, but H4 remains up at close of trade this week. But H4 looks set to trigger a sell signal, and when it does, all three time frames will be confluent and pointing downwards."

The H4 chart did, indeed, trigger a sell signal during the trading week, and I moved on this early. Price is currently nearing support, and may bounce around a little this week, but a break below support could see oil prices fall to around the $57.00 a barrel.

U.S. Natural Gas: The daily price chart below shows U.S. Natural Gas prices beginning to falter, with a break below the moving average and the ratio on the cusp of crossing-up. I need the ratio to complete its cross-up and the moving average to turn white to confirm a potential sell position.

Looking at the "near perfect" annual cycle in U.S. Natural Gas Stocks, history shows that we can expect stocks to rise as the cycle forms its "double top", followed by the seasonal nosedive that follows as gas stocks draw down. How reliable this is as a trading tool remains to be seen, but at the very least, the annual cycle does offer guidance and understanding of the underlying price trend both now, and into the near future.

Bitcoin: My Bitcoin position was taken-out by the Strategic Stop Loss, which had been modified once more during the week. The trend is clearly still marching upwards, and a new entry may be on the cards this week.

Ethereum: My first trade in Ethereum was a loser, closed-out by an exit signal. Perhaps a bit too impatient getting in!

 

[GazFx]

iTrade Weekly : Week ending Saturday, 28th August, 2021

One closed trade this week in U.S. Crude Oil sell position for $203.50 profit. Now I have reversed this position to a short-term buy, which is up $43.68 at close of week. I also opened a buy in U.S. Natural Gas on a H4 Re-Entry Alert breakout. This is up $89.67 at close, and a Strategic Stop-Loss at $4.18 locking-in $43.97 guaranteed profit.

I am currently trading U.S. Crude Oil almost exclusively on Technical Analysis signals, due to mixed fundamental data. As mentioned above, I view my buy position in crude as short-term, because overall the Fundamentals suggest lower prices ahead, as does the daily price trend. Hence my profit target at $71.19 at the intersection of support and resistance lines.

U.S. Natural Gas has rallied hard over the past few days, perhaps reflecting the annual cycle mentioned in last weeks report. Too early to be conclusive. In any event, this trade is protected by my Strategic Stop-Loss. Risk free, profit guaranteed.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continue their uptrend, which has been in play since 26th July 2021. I am not holding any positions here right now, due solely to the Margin Required and the impact of this on my ability to fund trades in oil and gas. However, both offer potential opportunities this week if price action breaks above recent highs. I will be watching and planning accordingly.

 

[Clemfandango1]

@GazFx how do you get the ratio oscillator in the subwindow?

 

[Bearad]

Wow, that is one of the most informative threads I have ever seen on this forum. You did a really good job. I hope you keep on trading and I look forward to reading more of your posts.