iTrade Weekly Report
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Amina El Mehdi
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You`re welcome. I`m honest.
GazFx
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"Oil’s rally fizzled as a build in U.S. fuel inventories and a potential OPEC+ agreement to increase supply cooled a buying spree that had pushed the market above $75.", MikoL
The reported compromise between key OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will see the UAE baseline production level lifted from 3.17 million barrels per day to 3.65 million barrels per day after the current pact expires in April 2022. That is 9 months away.
Meanwhile, crude oil stocks remain negative, but gasoline stocks rose to 1.039 million barrels in the July 9th week, following a 6.076 million decline in the previous week. Does this mean demand is weakening? Hard to tell from one week of gasoline stocks data.
But, look at the U.S. crude oil and gasoline stocks 5-year range charts below. Both are trending down and appear to have some way to go yet. Assuming global and U.S. economic recovery continues, crude oil prices are likely to move higher at least for a while yet.
Continued economic recovery is now the key to future pricing.
OPEC’s June production data suggests that the group sees a tight market that is able to absorb additional OPEC supply. The organization sees demand for OPEC crude in 2021 unchanged from the previous report at 27.7 million bpd, which would be 5 million bpd higher than in 2020. Next year, demand for OPEC crude is forecast to rise even further—by 1.1 million bpd from 2021—to an average of 28.7 million bpd.
The daily U.S. crude oil price chart below gives some perspective on recent price movements. The July 21 price pull-back is about the same as May 21, and less significant than March 21, and price action remains contained within the price channel.
I am holding long positions for the time being, and monitoring events and activities.
The reported compromise between key OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will see the UAE baseline production level lifted from 3.17 million barrels per day to 3.65 million barrels per day after the current pact expires in April 2022. That is 9 months away.
Meanwhile, crude oil stocks remain negative, but gasoline stocks rose to 1.039 million barrels in the July 9th week, following a 6.076 million decline in the previous week. Does this mean demand is weakening? Hard to tell from one week of gasoline stocks data.
But, look at the U.S. crude oil and gasoline stocks 5-year range charts below. Both are trending down and appear to have some way to go yet. Assuming global and U.S. economic recovery continues, crude oil prices are likely to move higher at least for a while yet.
Continued economic recovery is now the key to future pricing.
OPEC’s June production data suggests that the group sees a tight market that is able to absorb additional OPEC supply. The organization sees demand for OPEC crude in 2021 unchanged from the previous report at 27.7 million bpd, which would be 5 million bpd higher than in 2020. Next year, demand for OPEC crude is forecast to rise even further—by 1.1 million bpd from 2021—to an average of 28.7 million bpd.
The daily U.S. crude oil price chart below gives some perspective on recent price movements. The July 21 price pull-back is about the same as May 21, and less significant than March 21, and price action remains contained within the price channel.
I am holding long positions for the time being, and monitoring events and activities.
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GazFx
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Oil Prices Crash After OPEC+ Reaches Deal To Ease Cuts
Oil prices dropped by 5 percent early on Monday, with WTI Crude slipping to $67 per barrel, after OPEC+ decided on Sunday it would start returning 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.
The prospect of monthly increments in oil supply from the OPEC+ alliance comes just as COVID infections are rising in many countries because of the faster-spreading Delta variant. Concerns over potential hiccups in global oil demand recovery amid rising supply from OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners dragged oil prices down on Monday.
As of 8:22 a.m. EDT, WTI Crude prices were trading down by 3.9 percent at $69.01 and Brent Crude was down 3.52 percent at $71.00.
The fact that OPEC+ reached a deal on production and baseline production levels removed a major uncertainty from the market, some part of which was fearing a breakup in the alliance.
The deal is constructive for the market, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC, noting that “This agreement should give market participants comfort that the group is not headed for a messy breakup and will not be opening up the production floodgates anytime soon.”
ING, for example, kept its oil price forecast of $75 per barrel for Brent Crude over the third quarter this year because the supply additions from OPEC+ are in line with the bank’s earlier projections.
“Healthy demand growth combined with moderate supply increases from OPEC+ will likely remain supportive for the oil market in short term at least,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao [said](https://think.ing.com/snaps/the-commodities-feed-opec-strikes-a-deal/) early on Monday.
Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on oil and even sees the OPEC+ deal as having a $2 per barrel upside to its $80 a barrel Brent outlook for this summer.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Oil prices dropped by 5 percent early on Monday, with WTI Crude slipping to $67 per barrel, after OPEC+ decided on Sunday it would start returning 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.
The prospect of monthly increments in oil supply from the OPEC+ alliance comes just as COVID infections are rising in many countries because of the faster-spreading Delta variant. Concerns over potential hiccups in global oil demand recovery amid rising supply from OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners dragged oil prices down on Monday.
As of 8:22 a.m. EDT, WTI Crude prices were trading down by 3.9 percent at $69.01 and Brent Crude was down 3.52 percent at $71.00.
The fact that OPEC+ reached a deal on production and baseline production levels removed a major uncertainty from the market, some part of which was fearing a breakup in the alliance.
The deal is constructive for the market, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC, noting that “This agreement should give market participants comfort that the group is not headed for a messy breakup and will not be opening up the production floodgates anytime soon.”
ING, for example, kept its oil price forecast of $75 per barrel for Brent Crude over the third quarter this year because the supply additions from OPEC+ are in line with the bank’s earlier projections.
“Healthy demand growth combined with moderate supply increases from OPEC+ will likely remain supportive for the oil market in short term at least,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao [said](https://think.ing.com/snaps/the-commodities-feed-opec-strikes-a-deal/) early on Monday.
Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on oil and even sees the OPEC+ deal as having a $2 per barrel upside to its $80 a barrel Brent outlook for this summer.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
GazFx
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iTrade Weekly : Week ending Saturday, 1st August, 2021
I closed three trades last week, two in Gold, and one in Bitcoin, resulting in $1,145 net profit. See the transaction history above for details.
Looking at the H4 price charts below, there have been buy signals in Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin. These are all well worth monitoring for opportunities this week. Bitcoin, in particular, has just broken through resistance of the ascending triangle that has formed, which is a good indication of higher prices as we move forward.
Crude Oil continues its upward trend, but I have opted to sit on the sidelines until there is a break above long-term resistance 77.150 bbl. The daily uptrend in Natural Gas continues, but there is currently a price pullback in the H4 chart. Watch for H4 to reverse upwards this week, and go long
I closed three trades last week, two in Gold, and one in Bitcoin, resulting in $1,145 net profit. See the transaction history above for details.
Looking at the H4 price charts below, there have been buy signals in Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin. These are all well worth monitoring for opportunities this week. Bitcoin, in particular, has just broken through resistance of the ascending triangle that has formed, which is a good indication of higher prices as we move forward.
Crude Oil continues its upward trend, but I have opted to sit on the sidelines until there is a break above long-term resistance 77.150 bbl. The daily uptrend in Natural Gas continues, but there is currently a price pullback in the H4 chart. Watch for H4 to reverse upwards this week, and go long
Amina El Mehdi
Sergeant
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- 143
`Good week. What about this week?
GazFx
Corporal
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iTrade Weekly : Week ending Saturday, 7th August, 2021
I have no closed trades to report this week, despite the potential buy signals that appeared to be forming in Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin last week. The exception is Bitcoin, which did make the expected upside breakout through the ascending triangle that had formed. See chart below.
Both Gold and Silver buy opportunities failed to materialise, and instead they have taken a nose-dive. Fundamentally, this does not make sense. We have to ask, "Is gold and silver truly reflecting supply and demand fundamentals, or is there manipulation at play?"
I have no closed trades to report this week, despite the potential buy signals that appeared to be forming in Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin last week. The exception is Bitcoin, which did make the expected upside breakout through the ascending triangle that had formed. See chart below.
Both Gold and Silver buy opportunities failed to materialise, and instead they have taken a nose-dive. Fundamentally, this does not make sense. We have to ask, "Is gold and silver truly reflecting supply and demand fundamentals, or is there manipulation at play?"
GazFx
Corporal
- Messages
- 98
Thanks for the feedback EnamK.
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