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Japan Yen Forex Pro Weekly, September 13-17, 2010

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Sep 12, 2010.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Attention. My analysis is based on JPY/USD, not on usual USD/JPY. It means that
    My chart is reverse to yours . My support is your resistance and so on.
    To receive numbers and levels in common formation, you need to use the formula:

    1/MY QUOTE*10000

    Example. My level of resistance 118.42
    Usual level of support= 1/118.42*10 000 = 84.44

    Monthly
    On monthly chart trend is bullish (your trend, guys is bearish rather). Price moves to the upside gradually. Market shows very good AB-CD pattern with target around 124.55 (your quote, guys will be 1/124.55*10000 = 80.28). Market has passed through 0.618 expansion, and move above it. The speed of AB and CD leg is the same, so this AB-CD move is very harmonic, that can lead to some resistance at 124.55 area. Also there is some divergence with MACD indicator, but you know my attitude to this signal. Also – 122.78 is a monthly overbought area that is precisely at the target of AB-CD pattern.
    At the same time, market is forming bearish wedge pattern and now has reached some resistance – the upper border of the wedge, 1.27 expansion from one of the retracements lower and, that is most important deep 0.88 Fib resistance from the previous high around 126 area. So, market should stay above 117.20 (0.618 expansion of ABC-bottom pattern) for possibility of moving to 124.5 stays intact. If market will retrace lower from current resistance, then, probably, we can reach the lower border of the wedge.
    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    On the weekly time frame market shows nice up thrust, good separation from green line (3x3 DMA), trend is bullish. If market will show some pullback – 115.20-115.30 is a strong area of Fib Confluence support. Also, as you can see, the red line of MACD Predictor shows that trend remains bullish until 114.73 that is just below this area. So, personally, I think that this is good level for possible start of upward momentum trade. Although it’s impossible to say now, when it can start – after possible move to upside (due to monthly analysis) or already during the next week, because market has reached resistance.
    [​IMG]

    Daily
    There is couple of interesting moments here. First of all, market gradually moves higher since July. I suppose that everybody sees bearish divergence with MACD and bearish wedge that is forming inside this channel. In spite of this market continues its move to upside. And this makes me think that market should reach 1.618 expansion and monthly pivot resistance 1 and strong resistance just above the market around 120.50-120.70 area. Also take a note, how market moves between monthly pivot point and pivot resistance 1. I do not exclude some retracement lower, but I expect that market should reach 120.50 area.
    [​IMG]

    4- Hour
    Although I’ve expected that market can reach 120.50 area during previous week due butterfly pattern, market has not quite reached it and started retracement lower. At the same time, looks like market is moving in price channel as “2 steps forward 1 step back”, and makes deep 0.618 retracements. 4-hour trend is bearish now, market has reached 100% expansion from ABC-top pattern, retraced, and continued move to the downside. 161.8% expansion is very close to 5/8 Fib support, that makes an Agreement at 118.28-118.48. If we will follow the logic of previous moving in price channel, another leg up should start from this area.
    [​IMG]

    First of all, there is obvious that high rate of Yen presses on the market participants, because of possibility of intervention. Due to this market shows very blur price action. There are two interesting moments right now. On the monthly chart we should track the wedge price action. If market will turn to the down side - then we can see the excellent possibility for upward weekly momentum trade.
    At the same time, on shorter time frame, we should watch fro 118.20-118.50 area. If market will hold there, then, probably, market will continue it’s up move inside the channel and should reach 120.50 level.


    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
  2. wisefxtrader

    wisefxtrader Private

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    JPY/USD not USDJPY?

    Hello Sive,

    It is unusual to see you using JPYUSD instead USDJPY. I am wondering is there any reasons why you are doing it different ?

    From my understanding that USDJPY seem popular but I am not sure if JPYUSD is also popular because I could not get the quote from tradestation or my broker which it does not list JPYUSD. It is only USDJPY.

    I am trying to figure whenever you mention about it which it is opposite ways.
    I do see that Japan government does not like to see their Yen getting lower to 83.

    Maybe you should also offer USDJPY ?

    Thanks!
     
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hello, WiseFxTrader.
    Well, may be I should offer many other stuff, but I simlply not have time to do it. ;)
    Just for information, the only futures that is trading on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is JPY/USD, not USD/JPY. So, your broker should know this, if he's not a pure FOREX broker of cause. On Forex, yes, your're right - only USD/JPY exists. But I do not see a big problem, if you recalculate some key levels, using my formula. I think, it's not very big work to do... Look at this like at some kind of home work.
     
  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    USD/JPY Daily Update, Tue 14, September

    Good morning,
    Looks like our expectations has been achieved. On Friday, I've said, that market makes deep retracement inside the channel, and after 118.50 area (about 84.40) it should continue it's 2-step forward 1 step back move...
    So that has happened and market almost reached 83 area. Now I recommend to look into weekly research and find out that 83 is a very strong resistance area. I expect a pull back to the upside , may be even to 86.70 area.
     

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  5. m0z1

    m0z1 Private, 1st Class

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    Thank you for your valued input with respect to all the currencies. I am new and yet trying to learn the basics and find that as soon as i take 1 step forward 4 steps backward fall easily.

    Hence I was wondering if there is any way that we could see your live trading room and get some help as when you decide to start a trade like putting a post or twitter or facebook it would be really useful and help the learning process a little more.

    Thanks
    MS
     
  6. Mandrake

    Mandrake Corporal

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    OMG Guys, BOJ just intervene I think. USDJPY is up like crazy now. I am up 50% this month just because of this move.
     
  7. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    JPY/USD Daily Update, Wed 15, September

    Good morning,

    Our expectations about pull back from 120.50 (roughly 83 at USD/JPY) has worked perfectly.
    Now, on short time frame, we can enter in continuation of strong up move, I suppose, on the longer time frame there can appear some possibilities for posession trading.
    Look at weekly chart - around 86.40-86.60 is a strong resistance area, so we can count on some back move from this area.
     

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  8. ecafyelims

    ecafyelims Corporal

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    Agreed

    Funny, last night I was setting up a buy limit at the resistance level when I saw the usd/jpy start shooting up, so I changed it to a buy order and rode it to about 20 point from the top.
    I didn't know it was the BoJ until later; If I'd known, I would have doubled my lot size.
     
  9. Mandrake

    Mandrake Corporal

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    Hi Guys,

    JPY has a very nice U-Turn on 1hr and 4hr chart. I think it might be time for a retracement down.
     
  10. Erdinc

    Erdinc Private

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    Thanks Mandrake , I will keep an eye on it !
     

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