Discuss KeltnerPRO.com (Jared Rybeck)

[aicohn]

took the plunge

I like the way this one trades. Doesn't promise a 95% win rate, but wins twice the size of the losses.

That everybody is consistent on what the trades are gives some confidence. So I'm in.

Thanks all.

Addendum:

Does anybody know what the "risk" parameter keys off of in calculating trade sizes? The documentation is inconsistent on this point, at one place referencing "balance" and in another "equity". This makes a big difference in an account where the broker has granted you a "trade credit" showing up in equity, but not in the balance. If you have a $5K account balance, and the broker gives you a credit, you can have an equity of $10K, but when your balance draws close to zero, the broker will yank that credit back resulting in a margin call & a busted account. But the idea is you can effectively lose just about your whole balance in floating losses, before that happens. I've emailed support, but not gotten an answer. It appears to me it's keyed off of free margin, because the trade sizes decrease when it fires off multiple trades. So, it looks to be going off of your equity minus whatever margin is being subtracted, so my fears of overleveraging when using 0.1 in such an account could be realized. If you used 0.05 with such an arrangement and a 1:1 bonus, you'd effectively be getting 0.1. Anybody care to comment?

Q. What is a 'credit bonus'?
A. A credit bonus increases account equity, free margin and leverage, but cannot be used to fund trading losses and cannot be withdrawn as cash. By increasing free margin, the actual margin call and stop-out levels are reduced to almost 0% above the account balance, meaning that open losses can almost equal the account balance before stop-out will occur.

https://www.tallinex.com/faq

 

[ArielKorber]

Does anybody know what the "risk" parameter keys off of in calculating trade sizes?

I would fire that question off to support, Jared is best placed to answer that

 

[aicohn]

I did get an answer eventually from him. keltnerpro does key off of free equity, not your account balance. So if you have an account like mine, you should probably trade smaller.

 

[koenigshundel]

hi !! I connected to your community and glad to be able engage in discussions. I am considering buying a trading advisor and as I understand it, some forum members have a version of EA for backtest. Monitoring of trading account shows a good result. But is there any backtest results for the 2010-2013 year ??? please publish them on the forum. thank you.

 

[Giovanni Galli]

Hi, this EA seems to be profitable, but it's been running for very little time, so we'll see...

An interesting question I read on another site is about the fact that this guy (the creator "Jared") was in a huge hurry for money when he started, but he hasn't withdrawn any money yet..!!!

Why should he make things up if his product is the Holy Grail he promises?

Nevertheless I repeat, it seems to be working well.


Bye and apologies for my bad English..!

 

[Patrichia]

Good day ArielKorber, jonjo, gambort, and all others interested in Jared Rybeck's KeltnerPro EA,
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I received and setup testing on a Live Data Demo Account at roll-over time, 5 pm EDT (GMT-4) thru ATC Brokers clearing FXCM, on August 7.
This was 4.5 hours ahead of the AUD news event that drove the AUDUSD downward, triggering a trade sequence in KeltnerPro.
My results in real-time exactly mimicked the time and pip results of the FPA test account published here.
Three trades short were taken in AUDUSD, three trades opened and closed at precisely the same times seen in the FPA test.
See Screenshot attached, below.
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In order to stress test models, I run testing on a data server that intentionally marks-up the broker spread +1.0 pips. This is typical for a CTA who charges its clients for trading other people's money, such as I do. My test results were within 1-pip average of those shown at FPA on this first forward trade event.
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I am also in the process of back-testing this EA. Thus far my results are comparable with regard to timing and pip results to those shown on FPA. I will make a more comprehensive report available soon, and will also be making the test results available to FPA Members through AsstModerator, shortly.
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I can confirm that Jared Rybeck is prompt, courteous, and helpful in his replies to my questions.
To date I see no reason not to consider him trustworthy and interested in your success.
We all know how difficult it is to develop a working model that can stand the test of time. Time and patience is what is needed now by all concerned if this one is to be validated.
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My testing will use a constant 2% risk per trade and a 3 trade max open positions per pair, lower than the 5% & 3 recommended in the User's Manual. The FPA test is of course, designed to attract attention (which this one certainly has), by running higher than prudent risk. This is more a recognition of a marketing choice rather than a criticism.
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Real world users always need to learn from these tests, then adopt their own criteria rather than rely blindly on those illustrated. The main purpose should be validation of the model and the software product's integrity, not the absolute results.

Indeed, Jared used manual risk choices which were higher than those he now recommends to purchasers and varied them during the test period. This resulted in a wildly successful, but somewhat overly risky track record. Users of FPA tests need to recognize the difference between a marketing success and the success of a given model. Considering Jared has been fortunate enough to grow his real account in such a spectacular way AND also attract attention here, is a credit to happenstance only; and should not form the basis of your expectations.
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My test will show less extreme total gain, but total gain is not the best measure of performance; nor is it the only measure of the desirability of any particular model.
Professionals look for risk adjusted return, not pure performance. Now that Jared has captured our attention, it is time to validate the reasonableness of relying upon the underlying model for the casual user; and assess a rational way to size positions that will produce a good combination of gain and risk.
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Advantages I see of this model are:
1 - It tends to trade during periods of high liquidity (the opposite of quiet period scalpers).
2 - It adds to winning positions quickly, and not to losers (anti-martingale).
3 - Its reward/risk ratio is >= 2:1.
4 - It is a patient trader that seeks infrequent special condition setups, only.
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Disadvantages:
1 - It requires deep account free margin available at a moments notice to support large positions.
2 - It requires patience to let it alone and NOT trade; which many users will find difficult to accept.
3 - The FPA test period shown is too short to accept as definitive, yet; due to the infrequency of trades for each pair.
4 - It could possibly have some difficulty in obtaining trade executions at entry points due to spread widening (my conjecture only at this point; TBD).
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I wish to thank Jared, William Morrison, and AsstModerator for their assistance in making this independent test happen.
Congratulations to Jared for developing a novel and promising product.
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Stay tuned.
AI

Hi
Any update about the performance of the EA, it is 3 weeks since you last post about it ? Thanks

 

[Mat Ch]

Hi Anthony
Thanks for sharing your review and opinion about Keltner Pro.
The major disadvantage that I read from your comments is "1 - It requires deep account free margin available at a moments notice to support large positions."

May I know if the user can set the maximum lot size or control the number of positions, or limit each position's maximum size to ,say 0.2 lots each?

If the above limitations are applied, will it affect much the performance of the EA ( even the profitability)? To me maximum DD is more important than ultra high profitability. No use if the account is blown by a bad trade.

Not sure if Jared should answer my questions instead of Anthony, but thanks Anthony anyway. I have not purchased the EA but reviewing here and getting more information before jumping in, because it is so fresh from oven.

Once again, thanks
Matthew

 

[ArielKorber]

Settings

I hope Jared doesnt mind - I've attached the settings from the manual in answer to the questions above.

My trades have mirrored the trades shown on FPA. It seems this EA is mainly an event trader with very strict entry criteria and infrequent trades.
The TP seems to be at about 2x risk.
However in the last set of trades, concurrently there were 3 trades on the EUR/USD and 3 on the USD/CHF, so if were losers the drawdown would have been significant. As it happens all were winners.
I've also attached a screenshot of the EUR/USD trades which show the SL and TP in relation to the trades.
I contacted Jared re the NZD/USD trades prior to these which didn't trigger on my account - he replied it was due to broker differences.
I would also say the risk on the FPA account is significantly higher than advised in the manual, and seems to have been doubled prior to the NZD/USD trades, if you compare the lots size.

 

[Mat Ch]

Hi ArielKorber
Thanks for your post and sharing.

Have you done any back testing and how are the results? Do the tests match what the developer claim?
How often or infrequent does the EA trade, say, on one pair?

Matthew

 

[ArielKorber]

Hi ArielKorber
Thanks for your post and sharing.

Have you done any back testing and how are the results? Do the tests match what the developer claim?
How often or infrequent does the EA trade, say, on one pair?

Matthew

I have not done any backtesting, only forward testing since early August.
The results have matched the developers in terms of entries and exits. One exception was the NZDUSD trade on 25 Aug did not trigger on my account.
The profit claims are inflated and are due to high risk settings and in some cases trading multiple timeframes, but is it profitable? so far yes.
Regarding your questions frequency and pairs etc, see this link: KeltnerPRO Metatrader Expert Adviser Test by Forex Peace Army - Statement