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Latest trading opportunities W/c 8th July 2013

Discussion in 'Jarratt Davis- Trading Signals' started by Jarratt Davis, Jul 9, 2013.

  1. Triantus Shango

    Triantus Shango Sergeant Major

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    @jarratt: now correct me if i am wrong, but it seems to me that on e/j (haven't done my homework on u/j) we are poised for some significant retrace from last year's august bottom at around 94. if market only retraces back to 38.2% fib, that would be some nice and hefty amount of pips. i wonder if the big move will also start in august this year, exactly 12 months later from last years. what a coincidence that would be.

     
  2. Jarratt Davis

    Jarratt Davis Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Redrag,

    You pretty much hit the nail on the head.

    It is simply the market reacting to uncertainty again. The statement yesterday was more dovish than everyone was expecting ... He used 'modest' instead of 'moderate' which the market took as a very slight change in tone.

    Ofcourse nothing has actually changed, because any tapering is still dependent on the data that the US economy releases! So when there is uncertainty the market just flees to safe havens (Yen)

    There is no reason to actually invest in yen long term because it is literally becoming more worthless every month that goes by .... But at the same time that does not stop large capital flows causing some volatile swings in the price.

    I have personally taken my second position off from 98 ... For a smallish profit of around 50 pips and I am still holding my original position from 100.55. I am currently around 2% down on that position which obviously is nothing I am too concerned about at this point. This is another great example of why money management is so important ... Including not using leverage.

    As for the BOJ, they are not actually trying to weaken the yen per se, so it is unlikely that they will step in to try and make the UJ rally .... But their actions will just weaken yen naturally.

    If you are concerned about your positions (I have no idea what trades you are in) then I would look to unwind some of your positions as you get the opportunity so that your exposure is reduced. So on the Euro you could look to take off any shorts you may have from 1.3300 ..... right now its sitting at 1.3244 ....So as an example you could take the 1.33 and the 1.32 trades off and take a total of 20 pips (ish) .... then you only have a couple of positions on which vastly reduces your exposure and stress!

    I personally (And I think I have mentioned this in previous posts) never hold more than around 3 positions at any given time, as you would get hammered if the market did move wildly against you. When you have a limit, it also encourages you to be much more selective about your entries.

    Hope this helps!

    If you need anything else please just type it in :)

    J


    - Jarratt Davis
    Fx trader, funds manager and Forex mentor
    www.JarattDavis.com

     
  3. Jarratt Davis

    Jarratt Davis Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hey Triantus,

    In my opinion any moves back down this far would be caused by some serious change in sentiment ... Which is definitely possible, considering the EU's current shift towards a more dovish stance!

    Like you say It would be an interesting co-incidence if the moves were to occur at the same time!

    J


    - Jarratt Davis
    Fx trader, funds manager and Forex mentor
    www.JarattDavis.com

     
  4. redrag

    redrag Private, 1st Class

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    Hi Jarratt

    Thanks again for that insight. I trade from home and find your support invaluable. I am long USDJPY and short EURUSD. The mind can play tricks and when trades move steadily against you it's easy to imagine that something fundamental has changed. Sure, I listen to Bloomberg and read the news but knowing that you still see the overall position as unchanged is reassuring.

    Like you, I have been averaging-in and averaging-out; I closed out a portion of USDJPY at 98.70 this morning for a profit of 66 pips and EURUSD at S1 Pivot at 132.30 for 70 pips. I use Big Figure and Pivot points as a guide for my entries and exits, hedges and scalps.

    I am also about 2% down from my start point at the moment but that is only about 30 pips short of breakeven on my account balance. The average price of my open trades is 99.77 and 131.01. You will have calculated that my risk ratio is way too big; I accept that and will adopt a more cautious approach from now on. The reason I took high risk/ reward was due to the fact that I have always been a scalper, where 10 pips = 1%. Stupidly, I didn't adjust my stake low enough. Can't believe I didn't think that through but, fortunately, got away with it!

    Many thanks for your support.
     
    #24 redrag, Aug 1, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2013
  5. redrag

    redrag Private, 1st Class

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    Hi Jarratt

    Will you take profits ahead of NFP today?
     
  6. Jarratt Davis

    Jarratt Davis Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hey Redrag,

    Apologies for not replying to this sooner as I have only just logged back on to see it.

    I didn't take my profits and decided to wait for NFP to come out (I basically banked on NFP being positive) and took a loss on my position the second the data came out worse than expected.

    I ended up around break even overall on my USD/JPY positions. And am currently flat in my account (No open positions)

    Nothing much driving the markets right now, so I am on the sidelines until something happens to give it a kick!

    J


    - Jarratt Davis
    Fx trader, funds manager and Forex mentor
    www.JarattDavis.com

     
  7. redrag

    redrag Private, 1st Class

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    Hi Jarratt

    It surprises me that you went flat; do the fundamentals that prompted you to take those trades still not apply? At what price would you consider getting back into EURUSD and USDJPY?

    Am I asking too many questions? :)

    Regards.
     
    #27 redrag, Aug 6, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2013
  8. Jarratt Davis

    Jarratt Davis Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hey Redrag,

    Ofcourse not, I'm here to help where I can :)

    The fundamentals are all still solid but the sentiment is volatile, and currently risk off. My entries will be based on data from the US, Japan and Europe.

    The Euro is really really buoyant at the moment and we need something to give it a kick to the downside. I am staying out of this until it can break below 1.30 OR If I see something to let me think it will drop

    The UJ is falling off the back of sentiment and uncertainty with the Fed ... And also market disappointment with Kuroda not introducing any more stimulus at this point. I will become interested in this again if it breaks back above 99.00 or if significant comments push it upwards.

    When this type of market develops I tend to fall back into shorter term / day trading as it helps to provide consistent pips.

    To summarize, the longer term positions are still OK (As long as you limit the amount of positions you hold and do not use leverage)!

    Hope this helps, but as ever any questions please let me know

    J


    - Jarratt Davis
    Fx trader, funds manager and Forex mentor
    www.JarattDavis.com

     
  9. redrag

    redrag Private, 1st Class

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    Thanks Jarratt
     
  10. redrag

    redrag Private, 1st Class

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    Hi Jarratt

    I notice you use weekly pivot points to assist you with entry and exit. I imagine that you regard this as the most reliable pivot but what are your views on using pivots over other time periods?

    Thanks.
     

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