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Level up to trade forex successfully

Discussion in 'General Forex Talk' started by Forex Mind Games, Jul 18, 2012.

  1. Forex Mind Games

    Forex Mind Games Private, 1st Class

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    Powerful order-flow discovery

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    I present to you my latest findings on the order flow of AUDUSD. Remember that currencies are the lifelines of the global economy. People buy and sell currencies all the time. If i wanted to travel to London to watch the 2012 Olympics, i would change my local currency into British pounds. Which means i would buy GBP and sell SGD. Basic supply and demand.
    We individuals do not have the power to move the currencies by 1 pip. So who does? It is the multinational companies such as IBM, Apple, BMW, Samsung and others. Central banks can manipulate their countries' currencies. But they do it infrequently, although when they do it, it causes huge spikes. Witness BOJ intervening to weaken the YEN in 2011. Look up the daily chart of USDJPY and find the obvious one day spikes. It is the handicraft of Japan's central bank. Hedge funds can and also shift currencies to a certain extent. But their main aim is speculation and to make profits.
    The main factor in currency movement is this. Watch the order flow by the multinational corporations. Every month, whether it is the beginning or the end of each month, they buy and sell currencies. Why? Because they need to settle their monthly accounts. They need to hedge their positions. They need to repatriate their profits. They need to pay their suppliers. They need to collect payment from their customers. Every month, every quarter, every year end, they have to tabulate their profits and losses into their balance sheets. And a host of other reasons.
    To illustrate my findings, see the AUDUSD chart. Now locate the places where price makes a major turn. The tops and bottoms are located mostly on the month-end or month-start. It is not a coincidence. It is order-flow.
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    I hope you understand the importance of order-flow now. Many traders talk on fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (TA) when looking at the markets. I present to you the third analysis, order-flow analysis (OFA). Learn it well and you will become a more successful trader. Trading is a mind game.
     
  2. Forex Mind Games

    Forex Mind Games Private, 1st Class

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    Level 02 - Money, Mind, Method, Myself

    A good trader is like a sturdy chair with 4 legs. If 1 leg is damaged, the chair become wobbly and very risky to sit. Would you risk buttocks to sit on such a chair? Ouch!!

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    Likewise in trading, there are the 4 M's to become a successful profitable trader. Each M represents 1 leg of the chair. When all 4 legs are in your trading system, your chair is in good shape and so are you.
    A professional trader will strive to maintain a strong chair. Once the chair becomes creaky, they will repair it. However, a novice trader will try to sit on their 1-legged or 2-legged chairs. Which chair do you have?
     
  3. dkami

    dkami Sergeant

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  4. Forex Mind Games

    Forex Mind Games Private, 1st Class

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  5. Forex Mind Games

    Forex Mind Games Private, 1st Class

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    at the crucial junction

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    This is getting more and more interesting. It is almost like the final episode of a long running soap opera. This week (6th Sept ECB bond buying program unveiled) and maybe next week (12th Sept German court ruling) are the crucial junctures. What prevails over these 2 weeks will determine the ultimate winner.
    What am i talking about? I am referring to the king of forex, Mr EURUSD. The daily chart is now at the critical crossroad. For we are at point 4 of a prolonged down trend line. More than 365 days worth of down trend line, to be exact.
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    All right, ladies and gentlemen. Lay your bets. If you want to go big, this is it. This is the once-in-a-year event. This is what you have been waiting for. If you catch the correct direction, you are rewarded handsomely on your golden path to riches. But when you don't, then ........
     
  6. Forex Mind Games

    Forex Mind Games Private, 1st Class

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    My trades for EURUSD

    What a week it is for the EUR bulls!!
    Wednesday. The bond buying program was leaked to the markets, which was the reason for the sudden bullish rise. I was short on Wednesday, but luckily got out with some profits.
    Thursday. ECB press conference. Markets initial reaction was a bearish 80pips drop, followed by a dramatic 80pips bullish recovery 2 hours later.
    Friday. A +175pips bullish upmove in 1 day. It is been a loooonnggg time since we have witness such strength in a single day. I presume the august summer holidays for the European and American traders are over?? I am not sure, as i am from Asia and there are no summer holidays here. We are definitely in for more volatility soon. And the market is ready to trend big from this month onwards until early December.
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  7. Forex Mind Games

    Forex Mind Games Private, 1st Class

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    My weekly trades for GBPUSD

    My trading results for GBPUSD was less ideal than EURUSD. However, i got out with small to slightly moderate losses.
    The key to maintaining small losses is to discipline oneself to keep stop losses small. If there is a holy grail to trading, i guess this is the golden rule. Get out with a small loss and try again later. Good that my small losses here are covered by the huge win in EURUSD.

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  8. Forex Mind Games

    Forex Mind Games Private, 1st Class

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    Euro bull train

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    After last week's decisive bullish breakout, EURO seems to be on a bullish train. I am expecting EURUSD to do a possible re-test of the pivotal zone 1.2620-50. If price do touch 1.2620-50, it is a good area to place your long positions.
    If strong demand is present at 1.2620-50, price should target the next resistance zone of 1.3000. This is a trade which i like to take. Low risk of 30-50pips, and high reward of 200-300pips.
    Long near 1.2620-50
    Stop loss below 1.2600
    Final target profit 1.2980-1.3000
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  9. Forex Mind Games

    Forex Mind Games Private, 1st Class

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    The new playground

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    Similar to EURUSD, GBPUSD is also confined within the rising channel. Furthermore, there is a whole new large 500pips price area for the market makers to play within. I dubbed it as "the new playground."
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    The new playground is from 1.5800-1.6300. Why is this a new playground?
    •There is plenty of white empty spaces between 1.5800-1.6300.
    •Prices has not been seen in this area for a long time.
    •Like water, prices follow the path of least resistance. And the path is between 1.5800-1.6300.
    •Market makers may want to fight it out here and establish their new supports and resistances within this zone.

    As long as price remains within the rising channel, we should expect a re-test of 1.6300.
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  10. dkami

    dkami Sergeant

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    Couldn't agree with you more,

    After this daily candle closes above my resistance that's now support which it is surly to do my next resistance level is 1.63197

    Got to love that range:)
     
    #20 dkami, Sep 11, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012
: level up

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