Live Forex Day Trading - Forex Day Trading Room

[liveforexdaytrading]

Recap 14-06-2011

Hello everyone,
I did not see much of a setup this morning especially with the meeting of the Finance Ministers in front today. I decided to go short on EUR/USD at 1.4430 with just ¼ of the normal size and a 21 pips Stop loss. My target was down at 1.4390 which was the daily pivot today. I took the short a bit pre-mature and was not waiting for a lower high in the 15min chart. I just sold the 50% Fibonacci retracement in the EUR/USD and was looking for a 2:1 risk reward ratio. That trade got stopped out at the SL level for -5 full pips. Right now I am looking for a significant break of the 1.4450 level a retest for a long opportunity or a break of the 1.4325 support level and a retest for a short.
(See Attachment Image1)

GBP/USD is trading in the “neutral zone” between 1.6300 and 1.6450. I will most likely stay on the sideline until we break either level. AUD/USD is also not doing much recently. I am still slightly bearish on that but if we break the 1.0700 level again to the upside my bias might change. I will look for shorts below 1.0580.

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Recap 15-06-2011

Hello everyone,

EUR/USD came under early pressure today with more woes about Greece debt. With EUR/USD falling back below 1.4450 there was also a possible right shoulder forming in a HS pattern in the 4H chart. I went short at 1.4409 and closed half of it at 1.4286 and the second half at 1.4262 for an average of 35 pips. My initial target was 1.4330, right before the support level and that level eventually got hit at the end of the European session. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.4300. I expect a significant break of that level and I will look for a short after a retest of that level. If the push comes down to 1.4250 and then back up to 1.4300 I will look for 1.4200 as a target. If we go straight to 1.4200 and then back up to 1.4300 again I will look for 1.4000 as a target. 1.4000 is the target of the HS pattern. 1.4300-14330 the neckline area, I expect a retest of that area after a break of the neckline.

(see Attachment Image1)

AUD/USD holding up well, I will not touch this for now. GBP/USD is trading below 1.6300 at 1.6250 as I am writing. I will look for shorts after a retrace back up to the previous support at 1.6300 if the momentum turns to the downside again.

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Recap 16-06-2011

Hello everyone,
We had a rather slow European session this morning considering the recent developments. EUR/USD reached 1.4200 as I predicted yesterday but we just did not get retrace to get in short again. We had also another push to the downside before the European session started, so all there was to do was waiting for a retrace. I was looking for a retrace back up to 1.4155 which was the previous support. That level was also in between the 50% and the 61% Fibonacci Retracement in the 15min timeframe. We got to the level very late in the European session so I just took a ¼ position short at 1.4143 and told the members also to trade small. The reason for the small size was the fact that we hit the 1.61% extension target from the Fibonacci Retracement in the 4H chart. Technically the next short setup comes at the next 50% Fibonacci retracement around 1.4280. We could even see a retest of the neckline of the HS pattern at 1.4325. The new IMF aid package for Greece could help to get up to that level. The problems remain still the same and I think we will get to 1.4000 after a possible retrace.
(See Attachment Image1)

Nevertheless my target was at 1.4065 which was the 1.23 Fibonacci extension level in the 15min timeframe which was also the S1 daily pivot level. EUR/USD lost momentum at 1.4072 and I got out at 1.4097 for +46 pips on ¼ size.
(See Attachment Image2)

With risk aversion still going strong AUD should come more under pressure. AUD/USD is in a messy sideways range but 1.0400 and 1.0250 should come in the next couple of days. 1.0250 is the daily breakout level which still hasn't seen a retest.
(See Attachment Image3)

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Recap 17-06-2011

Hello everyone,

As I said yesterday I was expecting a retrace back to 1.4280 or even 1.4325 with talk of a new aid package for Greece. And here we are: Sitting at 1.4320. Even I have been right on this I was not trading the retrace. I am not a big fan of trading the retrace against the main trend. I just like to get into the main trend after the retrace. Technically we have now seen the retest of the HS neckline I mentioned yesterday. EUR/USD also hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I don't see any reason why we should not move lower from here when the short covering comes to an end. I also think the market is way to optimistic here about a solution for Greece but I will try not to be to biased here and concentrate on the Technical Analysis. I will watch the open on Sunday night closely. I remain bearish unless we break 1.4500. 1.4000 is my target to the downside. If 1.4000 fails, I don't see much support until 1.3500.
( See Attchment Image1)

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Recap 20-06-2011

Hello everyone,

Not much to write about today’s movements in the market. It felt pretty much like your typical Monday morning European trading session whit a lot of choppy price action. EUR/USD ended the session where it started. In early trading EUR/USD looked good to the downside. We had the retest of the HS neckline at 1.4330 and which was also the 61.8% retracement level. I was expecting a move to the downside from that level down to 1.4000 but when I opened the live room today the price was already 100 pips below the highs. Nevertheless I decided to take a short at 1.4330 with smaller than usual size since the stop had to be rather wide above the daily pivot. The trade was up about 35 pips but bids emerged around 1.4190 and downside momentum slowed down and I decided to put the stop loss to break even. The trade got stopped out at BE after a bit of Euro positive news. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there about the new aid package for Greece, but I guess it is almost certain that Greece gets the fresh money. The new austerity measures will most likely be approved by Greece but if they can fulfill their promise is another issue. Of course you don’t have to be an economic expert to see that the new austerity measures will even slow down more the economic growth and either way the Euro will remain vulnerable to the debt issue for an extended period of time. Nevertheless an approval to the austerity measures and the fresh money for Greece postpones the problem for a few weeks again and we might see a relief rally in the EUR/USD. I still think is going down in the medium term but I think short term movement are unpredictable this week. Technically I still remain bearish as long as EUR/USD does not significantly break 1.4330. For me being bullish EUR/USD would have to trade above 1.4500.
(See Attachment Image1)

The GBP/USD chart looks to messy for me to make any predictions. The 4H 200 moving average is basically moving sideways for the last 6 weeks. I would like to see a break of 1.6300 for possible long trades or a break of 1.6000 for possible short trades.

AUD/USD has formed a new support level at 1.0480. I still prefer the scenario of a break of the level and then a move down to 1.0250. Even upside momentum has slowed down in the pair you can clearly also see buyers on dips. If anything I will look for short trades with tight stops and only 20-30 pips targets.

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Recap 21-06 and 22-06-2011

Hello everyone,

I did not take any trades yesterday since I wanted to wait for the outcome of the Greece Confidence vote. So let’s take a look at today’s market.
The Greek confidence vote turned out positive for the Greek PM and we had a classic buy the rumor sell the fact scenario. After a quick blip to 1.4420 the EUR/USD got sold and traded as low as 1.4350. With the big 1.4400 option barrier expiring today the level acts as a magnet and the pair traded a few pips above or below that level for most of the time. Even I think EUR/USD will get hard eventually the short term movement is hard to predict. I remain cautious shorting it above 1.4320 where I see near term support. At 1.4460 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level form highs to lows. That is the near term resistance level. We had MPC meeting minutes today I was expecting a more dovish tone. Since I was expecting the GBP to weaken on that MPC statement I decided to go short in the GBP. I chose to go long EUR/GBP instead of short GBP/USD because the chart looked cleaner. EUR/GBP made a retest of the 0.8850 resistance level which acts now as support. I went long at 0.8870. We saw some upside movement in front of the news release so I decided to take my profit at 0.8890. Some members decided to put the stop to break even through the news since I was still expecting the GBP going down. The voting came in 7-2 in favor of not raising rates and GBP took a dive. EUR/GBP trading now at 0.8930 so some members got more pips than me on that.
(See Attachment Image1)

We have still the FOMC meeting later. I don’t think we will see another QE. The US Dollar should profit from that in the long term. I also think with the market being over optimistic on the European debt situation and an end of QE2 the equity markets should also trade at lower levels soon.

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Recap of the last trading week

Hello everyone,

With most players being on the sideline this week because of the Greece voting on the austerity measures I decided also to be on the sideline for the most part of the week. I only took two trades in the room, one long for -10 pips in EUR/GBP and a long in GBP/USD for +25 pips. It would not have made much sense to post any technical setups since these setups were blown away by the news anyway. In the end we got the expected outcome: The vote passed and since everyone was expecting this we saw a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news scenario”. Nevertheless after an initial sell-off on the news the EUR/USD continued its relief rally but with not much momentum. If we look at the 4H Chart we see that the EUR/USD is lacking any direction at the moment. Right I feel EUR/USD could go both ways. With Greece being saved for the summer I don’t see big downside potential but I don’t see much potential to the upside either. We also approaching the summer doldrums season so I think we are up for directionless slow price action in the next weeks. Since the longer timeframes don’t give me any hints for the next move here, I just trade with the short term charts. Right now I will more likely look for longs after the dips in this pair for next week.

(See Attachment Image 1)

GBP/USD was under pressure with the risk-off environment in front of the Greek vote and still looks vulnerable. We had the retrace back up to the 61.8% level in the 4H chart but so far the price got rejected at that level. The big support area around 1.5965 was already taken out and even the pair is trading above that level again I prefer shorts right now with a target at 1.5820 which is the 1.23 Fibonacci extension level. If Cable fails to hold above that 1.5965 area I don’t see much support until 1.53.

(See Attachment Image2)

AUD/USD found support at 1.04 and broke the downtrend line with ease as soon is the market was on risk-on mode again. Still the 4H chart looks rather messy. Like in the EUR/USD 4H chart the 200 MA is just moving sideways. I am completely neutral on that pair right now. I still think 1.0250 will come during the summer but I won’t fight the momentum here. I expect this messy sideways price action to continue for quite a while and rather avoid the pair for the moment unless I see clear indication of risk on or risk off in the market.

(See Attachment Image3)

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Recap 04 07 and 05-07 2011

Hello everyone,

Price action was very dull yesterday except an early push in the GBP/USD which I missed due to some technical issues. This lackluster PA come expected with the US on holiday. The general situation in the charts has not much changed since my last post. GBP/USD was weak during the Asian session with risk aversion going on. I took a short at 1.6034 in the room and closed the trade for a quick scalp at 1.6019. Cable held the lows around 1.5990 and is now trading at the upper boundary of the range. If we break above 1.6020 I turn bullish in the medium term.

(See Attachment Image1)

EUR/USD has seen a lot of up and down in the last couple of hours. I am neutral on this pair right now. I will look for long trades if the pair manages to break above 1.4550. The 4H chart is looking more bullish tan bearish right now but a break of the 1.4440 area makes the uptrend vulnerable. Overall EUR/USD is just trading sideways without a clear trend. If 1.4440 falls then I will look for short trades.

(See Attachment Image2)

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Hello everyone,

I did not post here for a couple of month but I will start to post again. This time it will be less theoretical but I will do a recap of the European Trading sessions we did in the Live room. You can watch older recaps at
our liveforexdaytrading youtube channel. The new ones will posted here a few hours after the European session. Here are the results for the past 3 days and the links to the videos:

February 28th: +30 pips


Cable was in an uptrend with the price trading above the 20 day VWAP and the 5 day VWAP. I decided to go long above the 2 day VWAP and the daily pivot with a target at DR1. I took the trade out for +16 pips in front of DR1 because
we were right in front of the London open. The second trade was a long in EUR/JPY. The pair was also in an uptrend and and made a double bottom at the 5 day VWAP. I took a long when I saw some upside momentum coming into the pair and closed the trade for 14 pips. The reason for the quick exit was the European stock market which failed to make new highs and the correlation between the stock market and that pair.

February 29th: no trade

March 1st: +20 pips


I went short EUR/USD after USD had been strong for a couple of hours. The price was below the 2 day VWAP and the 5 day VWAP and gave me a short signal. When 1.3310 got tested the second time we could move the stop the break-even level and had a risk free trade pretty soon. 1.3310 seemed to hold with the ABC on the bid at that level and I decided to bank 20 pips.

I did no see a good setup in the European trading session on Wednesday so I decided to stay aside. As you may know my partner Brooklyn trader is doing the US. Session at fxlivedaytrading.com. He is a great trader who was working at Wall Street for a long time. When I got no setup yesterday in the European session he grabbed 81 pips in the US session. Check out his side and his results over the last couple of month and you will be impressed.
We also have a unique offer for you which you won't find anywhere else: Pay per session
This means you pay a small amount to join a session. Especially if you don't have time to sit on your screen all the time this is a perfect way to only pay for you time in the room. And if you don’t like what you see then you did not spend over 100$ for a month subscription. And the best thing: If we don’t have a winning session in the room you will not be charged for the session. This means you only paying when you are winning and you only paying for the time you spent in the room. I think that sounds like a fair offer. Of course if you like the room you and you have time then you can still subscribe for a longer period of time.

I will also post two articles per week. This will we be posted on every Sunday. One article will be a recap of the last trading week and the second one will be on trading in general. This can be about Money management, new trading or just a strategy. Make sure to check that out if you find time.

Well, I hope you will enjoy the new stuff,
Happy trading!

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading]

Hello everyone,

Video Recap of Friday’s session:

Result: Stopped out at break-even but the setup was good for 50-100 pips after the European session.

We went short GBP/USD in the room at 1.0536 with a 20 pip stop. The reason for the entry was a possible lower high in the hourly chart and a break of the pivot and the 2 day VWAP. Target was DS1 and the 5day VWAP. I put the stop to break-even after Cable tested the previous low. We did not get the follow through and closed the trade at break-even. Nevertheless the setup worked after the European session and was good for 50-100 pips.
Here you can find some stuff to read over the weekend:

Chart analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD:
Currency Trading | Marco Hering

An article about the difference between a technical market and news driven markets:
Articles | Marco Hering

Regards,
Marco