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Locked in a usd/chf trade need some advice.

Discussion in 'Beginners Bootcamp' started by Demus, Feb 23, 2011.

  1. Demus

    Demus Private

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    usd/chf trade

    any predictions when usd/chf will go to .94000's?.
     
    #1 Demus, Feb 23, 2011
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2011
  2. dkami

    dkami Sergeant

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    Hi and welcome to FPA now on the USDCHF this week this is what I'm thinking could happen USDCHF i have it in the oversold according to the RSI on my daily chart so with this and NFP forecast number(with the release out on friday) i think the USD will build up strength against the CHFy up until about wednsday as the CHFy has a news release out on thursday which could add strength to the CHFy so be careful of this news at this stage i have strong resistance around the .9468 so if price goes to this level on wednsday you may want to get out and wait for direction after NFP on friday hope this helps

    PS I'm in Australia so these days i have said are my time

    o and i will be buying this pair @ open monday morning because of the NFP forcast
     
    #2 dkami, Feb 27, 2011
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2011
  3. Demus

    Demus Private

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    USD/CHF still heading down

    Does anyone see this pair getting back UP to .9490 region anytime soon? How much further down will this pair go?. Whats causing the USD to be so weak?.

    What do you guys think any feedback is greatly appreciated?.
     
    #3 Demus, Mar 2, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2011
  4. dkami

    dkami Sergeant

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    yes i did buy @ open and got 30pips out off it and that was it was hoping to get a lot more out of it but for some reason the USD just didnt build up any strength against the chfy even with a good NFP forecast and as for how low could it go your guess is as good as anyone elses
     
  5. Demus

    Demus Private

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    Sign...

    This is not good at all man. From now on I have a different trade plan
     
  6. Demus

    Demus Private

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    I'm looking at the history of this pair (USD/CHF) on the monthly chart and since 2001 this pair has been steadily going down.
     
    #6 Demus, Mar 2, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2011
  7. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    A couple of my Live accounts were wiped out due to "Buy" orders which were placed when I thought the currencies pair just cannot go any lower based on H4, D1, MN, & W1 charts...But, as I discovered, I was dead wrong as the currencies pair went down, and kept on going down until my account was wiped out.

    I vowed from that day onwards never to trade currencies pair on the Long side when all charts show it is way, way down there as it has proven disastrous to me one too many times.
    Now most of my trades are "Short" and I go "Long" only when all analysis (especially those coming from Sive Morten) indicate the market direction for a particular currencies pair.

    As for your "stuck" currencies pair, we will have to wait for Friday to see how the US NFP result.
    For now, the USD/CHF seems to be struggling to get pass the 0.923 level after hitting a new low 0.921

    If you are really worried about your losing trade position, can't you partial close the trade size? I mean e.g if your trade size is 1.0, partial close a portion of that size..e.g 0.1

    Good luck!
     
  8. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    ...alternatively, if your account has plenty of free margin, you might consider riding out the losses until USD/CHF move back up to profit level again. But this might take a few days, week(s) or even month(s).
     
  9. dkami

    dkami Sergeant

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    yes Demus you are right this pair has been in a down trend for a very long time but IMHO on the daily chart i have this pair in over sold using the TSI with the software i use i do think this pair will continue in that overall down trend but im thinking it may have hit a short term bottom(or getting very close to it)and i do think in the short term it may have a pullback if today it breaks above the .9272 area with a H1 candle closing above this level or @ this level if price does this i think there is room up to the .9409 area on the other hand if price today breaks under the .9180 area it may continue to go down even further i am starting to get bullish on this pair though for a pullback

    having said this i think if you are 300pips down price should have hit your SL along time ago i cant tell you what you should do with your trade as no one knows what the market will do(except maybe the banksters on fraud street manipulating the market) what i have said above is just what i think will happen and good luck with your future trading everyone has to take a hit every now and then as long as you learn from your mistakes;)
     
  10. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    Just my 2 cents, but UCHF does look ready for a correction back up, but 9400 might be a bit of a stretch; maybe 9350. If it were me though, I'd do what Rahman is suggesting, and try to scale out small portions of the position when price is more favorable. Like maybe 1/4 at 9300, another 1/4 at 9325 or 9350, etc. (assuming you can do that).

    One lesson I've learned is switching from "make money" mode to "loss minimization" mode when necessary. The trade might come all the way back and still give you a profit, but anytime you feel a trade has gone bad, do your best to minimize the loss rather than go for "all or nothing." Some of the trades I've felt best about were actually losses that I was able to manage to a small loss rather than a big one.
     

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