Market Overview by FiboGroup - 2014

[fibogroup.com]

Friday 17.10.2014

[video=youtube;Mz4JHxZ4E2g]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mz4JHxZ4E2g[/video]​

On Friday traders will await the latest consumer price Index numbers from Canada and out of the US, the latest speech from Janet Yellen the head of the federal reserve. Also out of the US will be the latest reading of The Reuters Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
More info: FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

Monday 20.10.2014

[video=youtube;Dx_hdTZiMjU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx_hdTZiMjU[/video]​

On Monday we expect the week to kick off slowly as weak economic data hits the market and traders may take a break to prepare for the coming week. There are a number of indicators due out and although not important may generate some interest.
More info: FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

Tuesday 21.10.2014

[video=youtube;9jzU85SPfqE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jzU85SPfqE[/video]​

Tuesday will be an interesting day with key numbers out of China and the US. In the first half of the day, the quarterly GDP numbers and Industrial production from China will hit the market.
More info: FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

Wednesday 22.10.2014

[video=youtube;DIk71q4_XCg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIk71q4_XCg[/video]​

Wednesdays trading promises to be the highlight of the week as key statistics from around the globe hit the market.
More info: FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

The Australian dollar broke through the US88.00 cents mark today trading around US88.10 cents after GDP numbers from China came in ahead of analysts’ expectations. Chinese growth for the September quarter came in at 7.3% against a consensus of 7.2% showing the local economy is still chugging along. The GDP data has been monitored closely for signs on whether the Chinese government will pump further stimulus into the economy to help with a slump in the property market and a slowdown in credit growth. Late last week, media reports said China's central bank is planning to inject 200 billion yuan (USD 32.6 billion) into the banking system, its latest targeted easing in recent months. This healthy GDP number may question the amount of money needed to stimulate the economy..

Market Economics managing director Stephen Koukoulas said the mildly positive response from markets was a sign of relief that the numbers were not worse."China is still growing at a decent to good pace, which is a marked difference to the mixed news coming out of the US and the unambiguously bad news out of the Europe," he observed. Other Chinese figures released today were more of a mixed bag, according to Mr Koukoulas.

The Aussie currency was also helped by a 1% rise in Iron ore prices to $81.60 per tonne which after hovering around 5 year lows for quite a while may have reached a bottom.

Market Overview by FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

[video=youtube;CU1ekm0Jbvg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CU1ekm0Jbvg[/video]​

To round of the week, we will see the release of the consumer confidence index from Germany, which has been on the decline recently. This is a worrying sign for the German economy and may even indicate retracting somewhat. A disappointing number can really pressure the Euro. Later in the day, we will see the release of the latest GDP numbers from the UK. This number has been hovering at around zero point eight percent since the start of the year rising to zero point nine percent last month. Traders will be hoping for a higher reading to finish off the week and hopefully a positive end to the week for the pound.

More info: FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

Thursday 23.10.2014

[video=youtube;WurYYcWhkko]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WurYYcWhkko[/video]​

Thursdays trading will kick off with all eyes on Europe as traders await the release of the latest PMI manufacturing index from Germany. There are grave fears about the German economy at the moment as recent economic indicators have come in well under expectations which has put immense pressure on the Euro.
Market Overview by FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

The Australian dollar is trading within a tight range today after the latest CPI numbers came in as expected. The year-on-year figure showed a reading of 2.3 percent while the quarter-on-quarter reading came in at 0.5 percent slightly above analyst’s forecasts of 0.4%. Most Analysts are forecasting an interest rate hike in the middle of 2015 around the same time as an expected rise in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve.

One analyst that sees things differently is Philip Moffitt from Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s head of fixed income in Asia-Pacific who predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia may be forced to cut interest rates, even after the US Federal Reserve tightens. “The economy otherwise is weak. The unemployment rate is rising and the currency still is overvalued. So if you had to put a dollar down on a bet, your bet would be that policy needs to be easier rather than tighter” Fiscal policy is still reasonably loose, but that – in tandem with slight currency depreciation – only has the effect of pushing out GSAM’s call for a cut to next year from this year “The way we’d analyze it is prices are rising but it’s not creating a leverage bubble” “The idea that rates are low here from a domestic perspective is absolutely true but bench marked against the rest of the world we still actually have relatively high interest rates” “The demand for Australian assets, particularly fixed income assets for foreigners, is very, very strong” “By global standards we’re a high-quality high yielder and if you’re getting paid zero or negative in Europe – you’re actually having to pay the bank to hold your money – 3 per cent on an Aussie sovereign or 3.5 to four on a semi-[government bond] is pretty attractive”

​

More info: FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

The Australian dollar fell slightly on Thursday even though local data and numbers out of China were slightly positive The Australian dollar is currently trading at around US87.70 cents.The NAB business confidence survey came it at 6 unchanged from the previous quarter.

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.4 in the flash reading for October – up from 50.2 in the final reading for September. Domestic as well as external demand showed some signs of slowing although both remained in expansion territory. Disinflationary pressures intensified as both the input and output price indices declined further,” said Qu Hongbin, HSBC’s chief China economist.

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens told a conference in Sydney on Thursday that he’s worried about the sharp increase in loans to people investing in the housing sector. The bank also mentioned that this is one of the main reasons that the ordinary Australian worker is being priced out of the real estate market. The average house price in Australia’s major cites has skyrocketed in recent years with e average price in Sydney now around AU$812,000.

More info: FiboGroup

 

[fibogroup.com]

Friday 24.10.2014

[video=youtube;qr1twmGVQPE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qr1twmGVQPE[/video]​

To finish off the week on Friday will see the release of the latest consumer price index numbers from the UK. The British economy has been faltering of late which has analysts pushing back there expectations for an interest rate hike in the near future.
Market Overview by FiboGroup