Market Update

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Posted 9[SUP]th[/SUP] July 2014 – 07:30AM London Time

Hey everyone,

There is nothing to really trade today as European & UK newsflow is quiet, however I will be paying very close attention to the FOMC minutes later in the New York session.

The reason this data point is of interest is because the minutes will contain details on what the Federal Reserve were thinking and talking about during the last policy meeting. We want to know if some of FOMC members feel that interest rates could be raised sooner or later.

We are looking for the FOMC to become a little bit more hawkish, and give us some clues about whether they are leaning more towards a sooner rate hike or not. Any indication of how close the FED is to its first interest-rate increase is the most important question which the minutes could answer.

This data point could be tradable, particularly on USD/JPY, mainly because I feel this pair is undervalued at the moment, it’s been pressed down by various factors for many months which has kept it ranging. The fundamentals suggest that USD/JPY should be going up at some point, we just don’t know when.

You could get in before it’s released, as there’s a chance it could come in more hawkish than expected because we are looking to see if the FED recognise the recent data and the fact NFP came in so good over the last month. Or you could be more cautious and wait until after the FOMC minutes to be released to look for any hawkish, or possibly dovish comments.

P.S - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out this link below

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex...e-trading-course-forex-pro-jarratt-davis.html
 
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xzikob

Recruit
Messages
6
Hello Jarratt. Thanks for your analysis. It has truly been a guide into the market. During the FOCM minutes, how can one know it's hawkish or dovish since the spike is usually up and down during meetings? And is there a way one can listen to the statement during that time? Also i buy the USDJPY pair at 101.490 and now its currently at around 101.600. Do you think i should hold position long into the meeting period or i should kind of scalp it? What about update on Gold? I sold GoldUsd pair at 1324.00 area, do you think the resistance there is strong Enough to sell the pair off? I will appreciate your quick response. Thanks buddy!
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Still selling NZD/USD?
Hey vgasper,

You could still look to sell NZD/USD as it's near all-time highs, with a stop loss just above at 0.8850, however be cautious because the NZD is fundamentally bullish and could still spike higher! That's why I would recommend using a small stop loss if you're shorting this pair :)

Jarratt
 
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xzikob

Recruit
Messages
6
Hello Jarratt. Thanks for your analysis. It has truly been a guide into the market. During the FOCM minutes, how can one know it's hawkish or dovish since the spike is usually up and down during meetings? And is there a way one can listen to the statement during that time? Also i buy the USDJPY pair at 101.490 and now its currently at around 101.600. Do you think i should hold position long into the meeting period or i should kind of scalp it? What about update on Gold? I sold GoldUsd pair at 1324.00 area, do you think the resistance there is strong Enough to sell the pair off? I will appreciate your quick response. Thanks buddy!
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hello Jarratt. Thanks for your analysis. It has truly been a guide into the market. During the FOCM minutes, how can one know it's hawkish or dovish since the spike is usually up and down during meetings? And is there a way one can listen to the statement during that time? Also i buy the USDJPY pair at 101.490 and now its currently at around 101.600. Do you think i should hold position long into the meeting period or i should kind of scalp it? What about update on Gold? I sold GoldUsd pair at 1324.00 area, do you think the resistance there is strong Enough to sell the pair off? I will appreciate your quick response. Thanks buddy!
Hey xzikob,

You will need to analyse the minutes when they are released, we are looking for any clues or hints of when the FED will look to start raising rates, if some members are talking about raising interest rates it will be perceived as hawkish by the market - I use a premium news service called Ransquawk and they dissect the most important points for you, you should be able to get a free trial if you go to their website, other than that you will need to wait a few minutes for the news to hit websites like forexfactory etc.

I am currently long on USD/JPY and I'm looking to hold this trade through the FOMC minutes as I expect it to be slightly bullish. I can't offer any insight into gold because I don't actively trade it, sorry I can't be of more help!

Jarratt
 
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Raymond Loh

Private
Messages
17
Hi Jarratt,

Regarding the USD/JPY pair, the US unemployment claims turns to be lesser than expected, how come this pair does not have an bullish reaction, instead it just keep pushing down and reaches 101.07 area. Is there any reason behind this? and is it a perfect position to long this pair now?
 

dolzsan

Private, 1st Class
Messages
31
Hi Jarratt,

Regarding the USD/JPY pair, the US unemployment claims turns to be lesser than expected, how come this pair does not have an bullish reaction, instead it just keep pushing down and reaches 101.07 area. Is there any reason behind this? and is it a perfect position to long this pair now?
I'm wondering the same. It should've rallied several times now. What is behind this? What's up with the Yen?
 
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