Market Update

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Posted 11th August 2014 – 07:25AM London Time

Hey everyone,

There is nothing to really trade today as price action has been relatively subdued across major crosses and pairs ahead of this week's key risk events with the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report, Germany’s ZEW Survey and UK GDP due in the next five days.

Here is a brief catch up on two currencies I’m looking at trading in the longer term and why.

The GBP is still a very bullish currency that is being driven by speculation of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England by the end of 2014, the BOE are expected to become more hawkish imminently, leading to new gains on GBPUSD to around 1.7500. Most analysts see this change in tone starting with the Inflation Report on the 13th August 2014, after inflation recently hit the BOE’s 2% target.

I’ll be looking to start buying GBP/USD around 1.6700 to 1.6800 which is a good level of support with a long-term target of 1.7100 to 1.7500 in the coming months.

I’m still viewing the NZD as a bullish currency in the longer-term, this is because New Zealand has one of the most attractive investment yields and the NZD is a very attractive carry trade, especially against currencies with very low interest rates. The only reason the NZD has recently fallen is due to the RBNZ talking the currency down.

From this point on I am looking to buy NZDUSD back if it dips to around 0.8400 – 0.8500, and especially against weaker currencies with a low or zero interest rate such as JPY and EUR.

P.S - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out this link below

http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/fpa-freebies-discounts-list/34326-free-trading-course-forex-pro-jarratt-davis.html
 
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ahmer

Recruit
Messages
147
Hi Jarratt,

As you mentioned NZD is a bullish currency but it is not showing any strength since last week. What factors are stopping it to move against USD, JPY, EUR.
 

kappaforex

Private
Messages
11
Hi , NZD i beleive is heavily manipulated. I did mention couple of weeks ago that the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates on NZD and they dropped the currency pair which is totally against technical trading. They gapped the pair and it has never see the light of day since. Market makers are moving the price lower so the range will be below the 1300 ema on the 4hr .8477. I personally think trading against the manipulated USD currency pair is a toss up. I would stick to the jps cross pairs.

Price is at .8409 now they may drop it to .8392 to form a 1.414 on the previous low and then up to meed the 50. Crappy pair if you ask me.
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Jarratt,

As you mentioned NZD is a bullish currency but it is not showing any strength since last week. What factors are stopping it to move against USD, JPY, EUR.
Hey ahmer,

Nothing has actually changed regarding NZD strength, it has been pinned down over the last few weeks due to the RBNZ talking the currency down- this hasn't changed the fact that New Zealand still have a high interest rate, which means the NZD is a very attractive carry trade, especially against currencies with very low interest rates. The EUR and JPY are fundamentally weak currencies and I don't see any solid reason for them to strengthen. I'm currently neutral on the USD so I don't expect NZD/USD to fall much more, I think it will be well supported at 0.8400 for now. I hope that helps!

Jarratt
 
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Peter Neymovic

Private, 1st Class
Messages
82
I am looking to buy NZDUSD what do you think is the best technical strategy for doing this? I think it is flat but not sure.
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
I am looking to buy NZDUSD what do you think is the best technical strategy for doing this? I think it is flat but not sure.
Hey Peter,

I mainly use support and resistance to pick out the best areas to enter and exit the market, I'm currently viewing 0.8400 as a strong support level and good entry point for NZD/USD, I hope that helps!

Jarratt
 
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Peter Neymovic

Private, 1st Class
Messages
82
Hey Peter,

I mainly use support and resistance to pick out the best areas to enter and exit the market, I'm currently viewing 0.8400 as a strong support level and good entry point for NZD/USD, I hope that helps!

Jarratt
Thank you. Will try.
 
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