Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 13/12/2013
The U.S. Retail Sales Growth Supported the Dollar
The US dollar grew on Thursday Vs all major currencies after retail sales data that exceeded the expectations. The US retail sales showed the highest growth rates in November for 9 month and rose by 0.7% m/m Vs the expected growth by 0.6%.
The growth was mainly caused by auto sales increase by 1.8% - the highest for five months - Retail Sales ex Auto rose by 0.4% m/m having exceeded the expected growth by 0.2%. The sales of 8 from 13 major categories of retail goods increased in November, which can confirm a successful start of Christmas sales season in the USA. Consumer spending growth which is 2/3 of GDP, is a sign of economic improvement in the 4th quarter and it can bring the start of QE3 tapering closer.
At the same time employment market data showed an unexpected growth of Unemployment Claims which rocketed by 68 thousand last week to 368 thousand, the highest reading for two months. Initial Jobless Claims - 4 Week Average grew to 328.75 thousand from 322.75 thousand prior week. However, the US Department of Labor warned that the last week data could be a little distorted due to seasonal factors and holidays during the last two months of the years.
The Swiss franc had almost no reaction to the meeting of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) according to which the policy was kept unchanged as expected – but then it fell. SNB governor Jordan said that the franc rate was still high - downwards risks prevail in the economy, and its growth may slow down in the fourth quarter.
The euro fell after another futile test of $1.38 amid the decrease of euro-zone industrial output which fell by 1.1% m/m in October Vs the expected growth by 0.3%. The data released earlier this week showed industrial output decrease in October in France and Germany – the key countries of the European Union. Since November EURUSD has risen almost by 4% coming close to the height of 2013. ECB president Draghi said on Thursday that another LTRO line must be created to raise the chances that the program could reach real economy.
Australian dollar dropped Vs the dollar to the low of late August after Australian labour market data that showed unemployment growth to 4-year high in November. Employment Change grew by 21 thousand in November having exceeded the expected growth to 10 thousand. Extra pressure was put by the news that a number of companies are going to leave Australia or threaten with a significant reduction in the number of jobs. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that he expected Australian currency to fall to $0.85.
New Zealand dollar rose in the first half of the day after the RBNZ meeting where the key interest rate was kept unchanged but then it dropped. RBNZ said that inflation pressure started to rise and the necessity of further stimulation in the current volume is falling. The rate increase wasn’t considered yet but it can be raised if needed to support inflation about 2%. The rate must be increased by about 2.25% during the next two or so years – said RBNZ Governor Wheeler.
The yen again came close to annual heights Vs the dollar on Thursday. According to the QUICK poll, most Japanese analysts expect the Bank of Japan to start further monetary policy easing in spring of 2014. Canadian dollar stopped correctional growth of recent days and fell. Bank of Canada governor Poloz said again in his speech about the neutral position in regard to interest rate changes. He said that it might take two years for inflation to return to the target level of 2%.
By MasterForex Company