I know you probably dont get asked that too often, lol, so thanks allot for answering
and so quickly also!!
well put, capitalism at work... it always intrigues me to understnd (try and understand) what is actually moving the price- I've read research papers by carol osler that suggest that the banks obtain asymetric information through cutomer order flow- the larger the banks, the better infrmation because they have the most customers order flow..
The inner workings of the forex market are fairly straightforward and described in much detail as long as you avoid THEORY --- there is a very legitimate reason behind the market, which of course has to do with companies buying and selling goods in many countries and the needs to work in many currencies, but that you can google easily (but PLEASE, stay away from theory as currency exchange has been around a very long time and the underlying reasons are very well documented. THEORY is a wonderful exercise in a college classroom, but has LITTLE to NOTHING to do with real life situations)
this "time available to get from one point to another" "the banks spend alot of time in prior days to the news release to send price down, so they have a lower point to go long with "
I have never heard this before, MP, but it does make sense to me.. because I have seen this on charts before! I will be studying this concept and learning more about it if i can. I'm expecting the eur.usd to come down anytime now, and I can see from the prior days that the banks spent a lot of time sending the price up.. I wonder what news it is they know that we dont't... bail out?
The banks spend a lot of time both raising AND lowering the price and while we still have some upside to complete, IT WILL DROP YET AGAIN (in fact, in previous posts of mine on this and other boards, I give the price it should get to, simply because its the way the whole mess works.
Im fairly new to trading , and i've just recently started to grasp the whole concept of trying to pick the upside/downside levels... one new idea that i thought of but have not been able to try yet,, is since gold, oil, and eur is usd denominated,, wouldn't the upside/downside levels occurr near or around the same time through correlation of usd?
Sometimes they do and sometimes they dont --- an old saw that proves fairly consistent, but certainly not always, is that UJ will move almost exactly opposite to EU, and ive touted it as a mini baby hedge fund move, trading both of them as opposites ---- Unfortunately, one cannot simply assume this to be a "forever" thing, as there are times they almost move in lockstep in the same direction, but "on average", the suggestion if not rule tends to work well. (btw, GU is ahead of EU and will be heading down by next week, with a low of at least 6006 and probably a final, when all is said and done and the dust clears in a few weeks, of 5871 to 5819 ---- UJ is heading for 80.9921 which should provide some resistance and a possible short reversal, and ending at 82.4141 before it turns back south to 78.5642 while our darling EU is heading for MASS resistance in the 4585 to 4608 area and straining to reach 4669 and 4697
as for the various trading instruments reaching decisive points at approx the same time, this tends to be true --- EU "used" to move 180 degrees opposite the DOW, but now moves according to the US DOLLAR INDEX, in an opposite direction to the index movement, of course.
do you use correlation of any sort for confirmation on these levels? hopefully i am not asking questions irrelevant to your trading... but i am very intrigued therefore full of questions that would drive anyone crazy, unlesss of course your intrigured by the same concepts..
Correlation -- lets see . . . . . . . . . . not in the way you mean the word, although I do use indicators that give me a decent idea of how much movement is left and where the top or bottom may lie, when studied alongside the chart itself (you can use an indicator to estimate the remaining move available, such as if you have 50 percent of an indicators UPSIDE movement remaining, you can measure your chart price direction and action and look to see where a strong resistance may live, 50% higher --- dont laugh, cause it works VERY well. (I measure with a pencil, from bottom of a move to where it presently is, then look at the indicator to see how far in percentages it has moved --- it then becomes VERY simple to predict, since i have most all support and resistance areas on my chart, where the price is heading and when you get really good, which im working on, you can even see the retraces along the way and judge them also. The ONLY real difficulty lies in judging TIME, as news can speed up or slow down the movement tremendously.
the 2 citi accounts is very clever, I have been studying and trading just a bit over 2years now and not workins so i can learn,,, at this point i wish i could have just one account with citi, lol, but very useful information from you indeed, MP... a few other topics in your post i will have to analyze and think on before i can comment..
Why can you not have one account with Citi --- is it equity and if it IS, then immediately destroy your present demo and get one that has NO MORE EQUITY originally than you will actually be using in real trading === to provide yourself with far more equity (therefore far more margin than you will really have) is the worst thing you can do to yourself as it creates a false impression of your trading abilities. A few years ago I opened a $500 demo and in one year increased the equity to $10K (actually a bit more but 10 was my goal) ---- NOW, i need to have a $2000 demo account to make the same progress, essentially because of the new regs, but more because of the way trading is now being done, which is designed to STOP YOU OUT AND CLOSE YOUR ACCOUNT (sorry, thats how the banks are now trading, which throws the small retail trader for a total loop.
the "circular result, during boring times that is certainly not a "set in stone" rule",, i take this to be a consolidated region,, i think
,, well in your previous post you wrote "the ability to both follow and predict where the banks are moving price",, now I'm not sure,, but to me this could be the difference between breakout strategy and reversal strategy,, which is big difference, one is lagging, "follow"and late (breakout) and one is predictive (reversal) to me this is what that meant,, but I could be wrong (most likely am lol)
Please understand that along with the word "theory" the word "strategy" tends to grate on my nerves also. A price is either going to go up or its going to go down, and often it simply doesnt go anywhere for a while and while "strategy" sounds neat, any form of consolidation, and especially the type Im posting, will "breakout" of its range at some time and all one needs to know is that IT WILL HAPPEN and place a trade presupposing the concept. Im posting a chart which certainly looks like consolidation except for ONE small problem ---- each time the price moves from bottom to top, it INCREASES which is the classic illustration of rising prices (HIGHER tops and bottoms). Now, its doing it SO SLOWLY that you may not even notice, but unlike true consolidation, this is simply moving the price higher while enjoying MASSIVE scalping and short range trading --- take a look and i think you will agree. Not showing the indicators cause they would simply make your head go round in directions you might not be able to control easily --- the indicators have to be approached slowly and absorbed because, as i said, I do NOT use indicators in any way similar to others usage, but more as a guideline to tell me i am on the right track and to show me how long that track will probably exist before i fall off the cliff at the end.
btw, the chart I send is cleared of all the s+r gobbledygook that exists on my charts and simply shows the movement of the channels and how the whole process works in my mind --- hopefully a picture is worth a thousand words, cause Im getting tired of typing --- just notice the VERY SLOWLY rising prices or as is said, HIGHER HIGHS .