Mp | Intermediate Term Points E/U

September started way of trading - anyone ahead at this point after the new regs ?

  • Its never been easier

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Who do I shoot ?

    Votes: 2 66.7%
  • Money, whats that ?

    Votes: 1 33.3%
  • I havent a clue as to whats happening out there

    Votes: 1 33.3%

  • Total voters
    3
  • Poll closed .
GONNA show you something thats probably cost a LOT of you many dollars and its the "fake" on a short (in this case.

assuming you were at the top blue lines and went short, you could easily say the price would go to 4302, which is the bottom blue line, but IT DIDNT !

and thats the FAKE --- the price comes down and STOPS AND REVERSES before it reaches your TP point and at this point, most throw the short away and go long --- and heres what happens !

the long position DOES NOT continue going up but REVERSES and now heads DOWN to what you knew was its original TP point (which you bailed at a loss) AND the long, with the price now moving away from the TP you selected, is now in drawdown and giving you a loss.

and of course, the short now continues to EXACTLY ITS TP POINT, forcing you to grab a new short if theres time, and you now have to wait a few hours for the LONG to reach its TP Point, assuming you didnt throw that one away also.

Its standard issue, done every minute and if you dont watch out, you end up with 30 cents in the account, either thru stoplosses that get set off or simply throwing away what you think is a bad trade.

the second chart shows the completion of the move, now that youve thrown away 2 other moves and the original turns out to be just fine
 

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Mp -- 6.28.2011 -- Overnites And Tomorrows

DAILY CHART
UPSIDE ------------------ 4312 with 4321 and 4330 showing --- finishing the move as i posted below would be 4402 which i fully expect to happen
DOWNSIDE ------------- 4289

BLACK BOX TRADES
UPSIDE ------------------- 4306(one minute), 4310 (5 minute), 4314 (15 minute), 4335 (30 minute), 4340, 4344 (H1), 4486 (H4)
DOWNSIDE --------------- 4291 (one minute), 4266 (PIVOT), 4242 (5 minute), 4238 (15 minute), 4216, 4253 (30 min), 4250 (H1), 3757 H4 -- NOT expected tonite or for a few days, but we WILL get there.

LONGER TREND CHART
UPSIDE -------------------- 4296 presently showing with 4321 possible
DOWNSIDE ---------------- 4295, 4277, 4268, 4252
 
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Mp -- 6.28.2011

1028AM, EDST

UPSIDE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS NOTED IN POSTS BELOW WHILE DOWNSIDE FOLLOWS THE UPSIDE CURVE

PRESENT DOWNSIDE IN THE 4357 AREA BUT WILL DROP A BIT WHILE UPSIDE IS AS POSTED AND DEFINITELY HEADING THERE.

KEEP IN MIND WE SHALL TOP ON THE UPSIDE MOVE AND CONTINUE THE BEARISH OVERALL TREND, HEADING INTO THE 3700's and very probably lower.

enjoy and trade well manually, cause with an EA you NEVER know where you should be heading.

now for the other side of this assistance --- literally for years I have tried to tell you that while an EA can help for those who simply cannot learn to trade, IT IS NOT THE ANSWER ESPECIALLY IN TODAYS MARKET post the new regs !

I would bet with the whippiness and manner of trading (especially in the afternoon session in the USA, there is a lot of "traders" losing like mad because of lack of knowledge.

at one time I tried to teach you all, but soon realized that while I firmly believe this to be one of the simplest ways of making a LOT of money, most of you simply wanted the easy, dilletantish way and didnt want to put any work into it --- well, most of you probably found out that was the recipe to losing everything you had and passed on to the great burial ground of aspiring traders, and you probably well deserved what happened.

Now, I still teach those who WANT VERY MUCH to learn, but this "signal service" if we shall call it that is my second attempt at helping --- unfortunately, at least to my mind, its a pure give away and teaches none of you ONE SINGLE THING about trading, and so I put forth these figures, proven correct over months at this point, with much division in my own mind.

I'm a trader, and at this point a pretty good one averaging 21 thousand one lot pips per week with not much work, but it took some time to get here, so I have NO NEED of becoming a merchant and selling this information, so i give it to you freely at this time, at least until I get sick and tired of hand feeding you profit while you STILL have no idea of how to trade.

its my dilemma and it will be worked out along the way, BUT YOU SHOULD LEARN TO TRADE and STOP depending on all sorts of silly EA's that are probably getting you into serious trouble at this point.

mp
__________________
KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE are the handmaidens of the riches of forex, and i buy them roses every day, with many a thank you !
 
Mp -- 6.28.2011

634pm, edst
4427 is a nice upside figure on the short range trend chart --- DOWNSIDE figures remain the same
PIVOT at 4334




129 pm, edst

4417 on short term, 4432 on longer term chart and 4455 down the road on daily chart shows for TOPSIDE move with reversal VERY strong possible at that point, but remember main trend is STILL DOWN and at least 4017 will be hit soon.


BLACKBOX TRADES (short term)
UPSIDE ------------ 4356 (one minute), 4379 5 min chart, 4375 15 min chart, 4351 30 min chart, 4570 h4 CHART and dont hold your breath but that also will happen
DOWNSIDE 4340 (one min chart), 4331 (5 min chart), 4326 (15 min chart), 4317 + 4311 for 30 and 60 chart)


unfortunately, most of this wont happen till the evening session, as now they are simply moving the price around the court like the Harlem Globtrotters.
 
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Mp -- 6.29.2011

944 pm , edst

INTERIM PRICE MOVEMENT


DOWNSIDE -- 4449 with 4440 showing and a strong possible of 4432 (prior days close and todays open)
UPSIDE ----- 4487 with 4507, 4516 showing and 4545 highly probable, ALTHOUGH should occur after a reversal from 4516
 
6.30.2011 Overnites And Tomorrows

BLACK BOX TRADES

UPSIDE ---------------------- 4511 (one min), 4524(5 min), 4535 (15 min), 4979 (30 + 60 min ??)
DOWNSIDE ----------------- 4472 (one min), 4469 (5 min), 4486 (15 min)



SHORT TERM TREND CHART
DOWNSIDE ----------------- 4497, 445, 4467, 4441, 4427
UPSIDE ---------------------- 4495, 4513, 4523, 4535, 4548, 4554,4563


DAILY CHART -------------- 4629
 
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Mp -- 6.30.2011 -- Mid Day Madness

present Short Term Trend Chart

Downside ----------------- 4503
Upside ---------------------- 4536
 
Mp -- 07.091.2011 Overnites And Tomorrows

DAILY CHART

UPSIDE ------------------------ 4576, 4594
DOWNSIDE ------------------- 4437 (pivot at 4423)



BLACK BOX TRADES
UPSIDE -------------------------- 4531, 4533, 4572 (one and 5 minute), 5010(H4)(now THIS is fun, huh)
DOWNSIDE ---------------------- 4503 (one and 5 min), 4467 (15 + 30 min), 4387 (60 min), 4436 (H4)
we should hit the lowest numbers mid next week, with earliest perhaps tuesday



12am, edst, 07.01 --- maybe not have to wait till tuesday to hit some of those lower numbers methinks6
 
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MP -- more questions from other sites cause they want to know

UNKNOWN OR UNRECOGNIZED BY MOST NEW (and a whole lot of experienced) TRADERS, FOREX WORKS ON A VERY RATIONAL METHOD OF MAKING AND TAKING PROFIT or as a friend stated to me last night, you BUY at wholesale and SELL at retail and take your profit from within that framework.

A few people, interested in WHY AND HOW i can come up with pretty much the same numbers as the banks do during a trading day or week, have asked questions (REMEMBER, I LIKE QUESTIONS ~!!!) as to how this all works and so I reprint some of the posts in an attempt to garner interest in the subject amongst those who accept my handouts ---- my true purpose in life is to TEACH you how forex works, not to just keep handing you the profits with no education involved.




I know you probably dont get asked that too often, lol, so thanks allot for answering :) and so quickly also!!

well put, capitalism at work... it always intrigues me to understnd (try and understand) what is actually moving the price- I've read research papers by carol osler that suggest that the banks obtain asymetric information through cutomer order flow- the larger the banks, the better infrmation because they have the most customers order flow.. The inner workings of the forex market are fairly straightforward and described in much detail as long as you avoid THEORY --- there is a very legitimate reason behind the market, which of course has to do with companies buying and selling goods in many countries and the needs to work in many currencies, but that you can google easily (but PLEASE, stay away from theory as currency exchange has been around a very long time and the underlying reasons are very well documented. THEORY is a wonderful exercise in a college classroom, but has LITTLE to NOTHING to do with real life situations)

this "time available to get from one point to another" "the banks spend alot of time in prior days to the news release to send price down, so they have a lower point to go long with "

I have never heard this before, MP, but it does make sense to me.. because I have seen this on charts before! I will be studying this concept and learning more about it if i can. I'm expecting the eur.usd to come down anytime now, and I can see from the prior days that the banks spent a lot of time sending the price up.. I wonder what news it is they know that we dont't... bail out? The banks spend a lot of time both raising AND lowering the price and while we still have some upside to complete, IT WILL DROP YET AGAIN (in fact, in previous posts of mine on this and other boards, I give the price it should get to, simply because its the way the whole mess works.

Im fairly new to trading , and i've just recently started to grasp the whole concept of trying to pick the upside/downside levels... one new idea that i thought of but have not been able to try yet,, is since gold, oil, and eur is usd denominated,, wouldn't the upside/downside levels occurr near or around the same time through correlation of usd? Sometimes they do and sometimes they dont --- an old saw that proves fairly consistent, but certainly not always, is that UJ will move almost exactly opposite to EU, and ive touted it as a mini baby hedge fund move, trading both of them as opposites ---- Unfortunately, one cannot simply assume this to be a "forever" thing, as there are times they almost move in lockstep in the same direction, but "on average", the suggestion if not rule tends to work well. (btw, GU is ahead of EU and will be heading down by next week, with a low of at least 6006 and probably a final, when all is said and done and the dust clears in a few weeks, of 5871 to 5819 ---- UJ is heading for 80.9921 which should provide some resistance and a possible short reversal, and ending at 82.4141 before it turns back south to 78.5642 while our darling EU is heading for MASS resistance in the 4585 to 4608 area and straining to reach 4669 and 4697

as for the various trading instruments reaching decisive points at approx the same time, this tends to be true --- EU "used" to move 180 degrees opposite the DOW, but now moves according to the US DOLLAR INDEX, in an opposite direction to the index movement, of course.



do you use correlation of any sort for confirmation on these levels? hopefully i am not asking questions irrelevant to your trading... but i am very intrigued therefore full of questions that would drive anyone crazy, unlesss of course your intrigured by the same concepts..

Correlation -- lets see . . . . . . . . . . not in the way you mean the word, although I do use indicators that give me a decent idea of how much movement is left and where the top or bottom may lie, when studied alongside the chart itself (you can use an indicator to estimate the remaining move available, such as if you have 50 percent of an indicators UPSIDE movement remaining, you can measure your chart price direction and action and look to see where a strong resistance may live, 50% higher --- dont laugh, cause it works VERY well. (I measure with a pencil, from bottom of a move to where it presently is, then look at the indicator to see how far in percentages it has moved --- it then becomes VERY simple to predict, since i have most all support and resistance areas on my chart, where the price is heading and when you get really good, which im working on, you can even see the retraces along the way and judge them also. The ONLY real difficulty lies in judging TIME, as news can speed up or slow down the movement tremendously.


the 2 citi accounts is very clever, I have been studying and trading just a bit over 2years now and not workins so i can learn,,, at this point i wish i could have just one account with citi, lol, but very useful information from you indeed, MP... a few other topics in your post i will have to analyze and think on before i can comment.. Why can you not have one account with Citi --- is it equity and if it IS, then immediately destroy your present demo and get one that has NO MORE EQUITY originally than you will actually be using in real trading === to provide yourself with far more equity (therefore far more margin than you will really have) is the worst thing you can do to yourself as it creates a false impression of your trading abilities. A few years ago I opened a $500 demo and in one year increased the equity to $10K (actually a bit more but 10 was my goal) ---- NOW, i need to have a $2000 demo account to make the same progress, essentially because of the new regs, but more because of the way trading is now being done, which is designed to STOP YOU OUT AND CLOSE YOUR ACCOUNT (sorry, thats how the banks are now trading, which throws the small retail trader for a total loop.

the "circular result, during boring times that is certainly not a "set in stone" rule",, i take this to be a consolidated region,, i think :),, well in your previous post you wrote "the ability to both follow and predict where the banks are moving price",, now I'm not sure,, but to me this could be the difference between breakout strategy and reversal strategy,, which is big difference, one is lagging, "follow"and late (breakout) and one is predictive (reversal) to me this is what that meant,, but I could be wrong (most likely am lol)

Please understand that along with the word "theory" the word "strategy" tends to grate on my nerves also. A price is either going to go up or its going to go down, and often it simply doesnt go anywhere for a while and while "strategy" sounds neat, any form of consolidation, and especially the type Im posting, will "breakout" of its range at some time and all one needs to know is that IT WILL HAPPEN and place a trade presupposing the concept. Im posting a chart which certainly looks like consolidation except for ONE small problem ---- each time the price moves from bottom to top, it INCREASES which is the classic illustration of rising prices (HIGHER tops and bottoms). Now, its doing it SO SLOWLY that you may not even notice, but unlike true consolidation, this is simply moving the price higher while enjoying MASSIVE scalping and short range trading --- take a look and i think you will agree. Not showing the indicators cause they would simply make your head go round in directions you might not be able to control easily --- the indicators have to be approached slowly and absorbed because, as i said, I do NOT use indicators in any way similar to others usage, but more as a guideline to tell me i am on the right track and to show me how long that track will probably exist before i fall off the cliff at the end.

btw, the chart I send is cleared of all the s+r gobbledygook that exists on my charts and simply shows the movement of the channels and how the whole process works in my mind --- hopefully a picture is worth a thousand words, cause Im getting tired of typing --- just notice the VERY SLOWLY rising prices or as is said, HIGHER HIGHS .

anyway

enjoy and trade well --- it takes time for the mind to assimilate the information, BUT the mind will, over time, like anything else new
 

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