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Mp | Intermediate Term Points E/U

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by mp6140, Dec 23, 2010.

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September started way of trading - anyone ahead at this point after the new regs ?

Poll closed Jan 17, 2012.
  1. Its never been easier

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Who do I shoot ?

    2 vote(s)
    66.7%
  3. Money, whats that ?

    1 vote(s)
    33.3%
  4. I havent a clue as to whats happening out there

    1 vote(s)
    33.3%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. mp6140

    mp6140 Recruit

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    Mp --- 4/25 Overnites

    Upside --- 4548 -- 4553
    Downside --- 4499 finishing at 4486

    15 min chart
    upside 4545
    downside 4499

    30 min chart
    upside 4543 then retrace and finally 4560
    downside 4515 - 4510

    H1 chart
    upside --- 4546
    downside 4492 after a pause at 4506

    4677 sits up there smiling and waiting and waiting and waiting
    4432 is showing nicely down there, but wouldnt bet the farm for tonite --- if its gonna happen, could be tuesday but prob on wed.

    enjoy and trade well

    mp


    Fall seven times, stand up eight.
     
    #21 mp6140, Apr 26, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2011
  2. mp6140

    mp6140 Recruit

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    MP ----4/26/2011 --- news, rollover and todays direction

    Im sorry, but Im also laughing like crazy --- topside prices for the overnites I put forth were highly modest (i do that so noone gets into trouble badly) but i had also inserted a little piece about price reaching 4677 in there.

    well, just to be ornery, i took that trade and woke this am with a few hundred pips on two trades to the good, so a GREAT mistake was made AND enjoyed !

    understand that EU moving negatively imposes negative rollover, so over a few months, if you gander at a chart, youll see we spend a lot more time positive than negative --- my feelings are that the banks want the price up to the 1.50000 area before they get short crazy.

    that said, when the banks run the price up like this before news, its usually to get way up there so they can short back down from the highest position possible, and thats how I think this news will react to the price.

    So we wait, and we see, cause obviously at this time, so are the banks right now

    NOT WRITTEN IN STONE DEPT --- when news is released, the price "usually" moves OPPOSITE what it will do for the rest of the day for 1/2 hour -- lets see if they do that today !

    1450 ZULU --- PRESENT RANGE is 4567 downside and 4668 upside (and showing increased upside methinks
    (BUT, anything can and usually DOES happen)

    1532 zulu --- trying for 4607 which is the convergence of three strong support areas at the moment[/B]

    1600 ZULU -- in case anyones curious as to whats been happening with the price, I call it "trading spit" as the banks work with MUCH smaller spreads than the retail trader, they simply move up and down, heading for the direction they want, in the smallest pip moves possible --- of course, even half a pip at a hundred thousand lots begins to look like money after a while, and they do it all day long

    PRESENTLY, trend is upside but while i will trade this move, I wait until 1:30 pm, edst for affirmation of what the trend really is

    BUT, AS OF THIS MOMENT, TREND IS UP BUT SHOWING WEAKENING ON THE BULLISH SIDE

    1625 ZULU -- presently heading for top of range ---- 1730 ZULU (1:30 EDST) WILL SHOW IF WE HEAD FOR THE DOWNSIDE OR MOMO KEEPS PUSHING US UP TILL THE ROLLOVER


    more during the day as i finish my porridge

    enjoy and trade well
    and think short

    mp


    “I must ask anyone entering the house never to contradict me or differ from me in any way, as it interferes with the functioning of my gastric juices and prevents my sleeping at night.”
     
    #22 mp6140, Apr 26, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2011
  3. mp6140

    mp6140 Recruit

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    MP -- a short look back over this morning

    under normal conditions (at least pre september of 2010) the price will move for 1/2 hour in the WRONG direction in response to news --- this time it actually took one hour, which is a bit off, but if you look at a 5 min chart, you will see exactly when the move started and exactly when it bottomed as the 5 min is your good friendly chart for scalping (not that I use it for individual trades, but it gives a good idea of price action and direction from minute to minute

    anyway, REMEMBER this for news trading and apply as you wish

    NOW, for all of those out there with systems, methods, concepts, creations, crossovers, indicators, price action, candles and all the rest, THE ONE OVERWHELMINGLY IMPORTANT THING IN THE GAME OF FOREX IS SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE. (that old italian coot, Fibonacci, had some great ideas also --- wonder what he traded way back then -- reggiano parmesan and olive oil ?)

    the banks, liquidity providers and brokers ALL have the figures in front of them, usually based on the 30 min or H1 chart and they follow very defined time periods when the price moves in one direction and then reverses (extreme momentum can alter this)

    I watch a demo i have and the brokers move the price down BEFORE the price gets there, so that you cannot take the trade unless youre already in it, and the millisecond price hits that point, they move the ask up to the TP point for the reverse LONG trade, so you cannot enter that trade either, as there is no spread to work within --- its more than obvious THAT THEY ALREADY KNOW EACH AND EVERY PLACE TO TAKE PROFITS --- the workaround is to KNOW where the support and resistance areas are, and when the price decreases, take your LONG position, beating them completely by being AHEAD of them, and the same for the support area. In practice, its amazingly simple, although not the easiest thing to learn except for time spent learning how to do it. One very simple clue, if youre working with a level 2 chart, is when the bid and ask are THE SAME, its now time to reverse and fast !

    The confusion some of the newbs feel when watching charts moving all over the place is to think this is all RANDOM ---- lemme tell ya right here, there is NO RANDOMNESS in what is happening in front of you, only that you dont quite understand because you dont yet have the knowledge or experience to understand.

    FOREX can be learned by almost anyone, in my opinion --- of course, like dental college, some will be at the bottom of their class and some at the top (and the top "usually" makes more profits, be in teeth pulled or currency accumulated), and theres nothing can be done about that except to understand that forex (commodities and/or the derivitive and index markets) are the greatest interactive monopoly games ever put forth for one who wants to trade from the forcastle of their own yacht, cruising the bahamas with a few lovelies or boy toys in tow. (there are, after all, some excellent women traders out there, Toni Turner comes to mind immediately, and while she was my mentor and I speak with her on occasion, I CANNOT address if she has a boy toy or not, but shes a darn good looking woman and a heck of a trader and teacher)

    maybe somewhere along the line I can help



    enjoy and trade well

    mp


    "Never argue with an idiot.They will bring you down to their level and beat you with experience!
     
    #23 mp6140, Apr 26, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2011
  4. mp6140

    mp6140 Recruit

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    MP -- 4/26 -- 27/2011 overnites

    or at least the beginnings of them

    0500 ZULU --- range has increased up since last one -- This is actually a daily play, but worked last nite so lets see tonite

    UPSIDE ------ 4722, 4747, 4758, 4777, 4815
    DOWN ------ 4629


    15 min chart
    UPSIDE 4689, 4740
    DOWN -- 4669

    30 min chart
    UPSIDE -- 4699, 4733 with 4751 showing
    DOWN -- 4674

    60 MIN CHART
    UPSIDE -- 4744
    DOWN -- 4665

    H4 chart
    UPSIDE ---- 4740, 4775
    DOWN ---- 4663

    enjoy and trade well

    mp

    You can educate dumb, but you can't fix stupid!
     
    #24 mp6140, Apr 26, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2011
  5. mp6140

    mp6140 Recruit

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    MP -- 4/27 thoughts

    1520 ZULU ---- will not go out on a small limb, but watching for downside move to be deeper than originally considered

    4617 shows on 30 min chart and is certainly a possible, so bears watching, otherwise original numbers still stand for TP points.

    I will restate that there is NO REASON for the euro to be climbing so tremendously and steadily against the USD unless the banks simply wish to reach a top as fast as possible, and spend the summer into winter shorting the euro.

    If that DOES happen, expect some highly volitile intraday action at the top and, because the rollover is NEGATIVE for shorting the euro, few banks will want to hold overnite or for a week and will get all their business done in one 24 hour day, before they get caught in the negative rollover.

    1607 ZULU --- what is presently happening is the price is moving UP in a downtrend --- presently will hit 4654 and reverse to 44672 with a possible 4654 before it starts its downturn


    1800 ZULU ---- "overnite" topsides now being attempted with 4751 first MAJOR resist on 15 min chart Remember, we should call them "NEXT DAYS" from now on --- sorry, forgot !

    During all these moves, please understand that there will be constant retraces ---- i cannot trade myself and alert to each and every one using this method so I am sorry, but just keep watching your upside --- the SCALPERS amongst you will know what to do, but the longer term holders can get easily scared with tight stops and low equity

    FOR INSTANCE, now in downside move that hit 4698 and showing 4702 new bottom

    1800 ZULU --- price up to 27 and then down to 22 and then up to 45 will retrace at 26 but continue --- 4720 showing



    1848 ZULU ----- PRELIMINARY OVERNITE UPSIDE SHOWS AT 4783 with 4822 as a possible, and we should go into a good downside move at that point, to perhaps 4427 --- low price on this downside move shows 16 but early to place that trade by golly


    1904 ZULU --- present downside to 34, up to 39 and down to 32, with 30 prob happening and top showing at 48 on one minute chart



    my opinion of course

    enjoy and trade well

    mp


    If guns kill people, then I blame my pen/pencil/keyboard for misspelled words!
     
    #25 mp6140, Apr 27, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2011
  6. mp6140

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    MP -- some thoughts for low equity newbs

    Im a "trend trader" if only because you do not get into serious trouble because of it (although, of course, you need to learn to spot trend ends)

    SOOOOO ---- if your equity is low, please please please DO NOT TRADE COUNTER TO THE TREND until your equity builds to the point where you can absorb some of the huge drawdowns that will ensue !

    if momentum is NORMAL (and you will get to learn it) then there are times of the day when there are VERY LARGE reverse moves, and you will learn them also, but if momentum is HIGH, as it was yesterday and parts of today, it would be foolish indeed to go counter to the strong UPSIDE trend we are in now, until at least 2100 ZULU (5 pm edst)

    I run a small boutique fund for local doctors and such, and while I AM NOT SELLING ANYTHING TO ANYONE, I have spent many a year learning this silly game and do pretty darn well at it, while maintaining my sanity for some of the other things in life (is there really anything else but financial markets ?)

    I give out advice because ive reached the point where giving is nicer than getting, having "gotten" plenty in this world and needing absolutely no more --- and i "give" to warn each and every newb of what lies ahead, which is rock strewn, dangerous and requires nothing more than simple TIME which gives you experience and with that experience, if it is intended, you MAY become one of the successes in the fast moving game we play here and which also includes all forms of derivitives, Index funds, commodities and futures ---- forget stocks cause they will whirl you around like a tornado if you happen not to be one of the "inside knowledge smart money folks:

    anyway, ignore some simple advice and become one of the many many failures who have tried Forex and are now broke, bloody and lying in the gutter ---- you cant imagine how fast it can happen to YOU !

    One of the easiest (most of the time anyway) indicators to use for seeing your trend is the MACD which i have set at 3/13/9 and works well --- I also use an indicator called "bressert dss" twice, once at 32/13 and another, shorter at 8/3 --- one can use the crosses or what I do is simply glance quickly at them to see what the present (8/3) trend is and what will be the longer term trend (32/13)
    enjoy and trade well

    mp

    Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

    As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !!
     
    #26 mp6140, Apr 27, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2011
  7. mp6140

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    MP -- present highs

    0112 ZULU -- present uptrend shows 4876 BUT be careful anywhere past 4840

    0100 zulu ---= [present bottom 35, retrace and 33 and then 31 ---- 26 and 16 a possible

    0222 ZULU -- presently daily showing great movement towards 4995 (a pet thought of mine is that weve always been trying to reach 1.5000 and then a reversal, but like all things, its a thought and not one of the gods of forex delivering a personal message to me --- lets see !

    0400 ZULU -- present uptrend shows first major resistance at 4894, immediately followed by 4907 and 4937
    I would anticipate a reversal (daily, not interday) of the 4894 point (for you long termers out there, although long term these days on the upside seems to be a few hours


    OVERNITES

    UPSIDE ----- 4886
    DOWNSIDE ----- 4790

    15 min chart
    UP --- 4874
    DOWN --- 4855 THEN BACK UP and a possible 4835 (not putting much confidence in second one tonite, but what the heck !)

    30 MIN CHART
    UP ---------- 4880
    DOWN ----- 4859 ---- ONLY IF WE BREAK 4848, then 4840 and a possible 4803

    60 MIN CHART
    UP ---------- 4901
    DOWN ----- 4852

    H4 CHART
    UP ---------- 4886 (but raising)
    DOWN ----- not showing downside, but this is considered a longer trade
     
    #27 mp6140, Apr 27, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2011
  8. mp6140

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    MP -- gm

    ok, which one of you stayed up all night and had their heads twisted by the euro market overnite ??

    1105 zulu -- 4787 showing on 15 min to downside --- YESTERDAYS downside numbers hold for this moment

    Also 4787 is yesterdays close --- BREAK that price and we head down, bounce and we play up, but with this nutty market, perhaps we see downside today, but NOTHING written in stone yet

    very possible we return to pivot at 4737 and then look for a breakdown or bounce by 1300 ZULU (9am, edst)


    AS ALWAYS, DO NOT COUNTER TRADE THE TREND UNLESS YOURE ONE OF THE QUICK AND DEADLY, but then you wouldnt be reading this if you were.

    PRESENTLY, does not appear we head for pivot until later in the day, with us hitting 4795 and then 4787 and a "possible" 4779 on this particular move


    mp
     
    #28 mp6140, Apr 28, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2011
  9. mp6140

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    Mp -- News Today

    SAME AS A FEW DAYS AGO --- DRIVING PRICE DOWN SO THEY CAN BRING IT BACK UP AGAIN IS NORMAL ROUTINE

    WE SHALL KNOW IN A FEW MINS

    4820 SHOWS ON 30 MIN

    1248 ZULU -- 4785 down, 4816 up and present trend is down, with 1300 ZULU coming where we may turn up again

    1300 ZULU --- 4777 shows with 4766 below


    1631 ZULU -- as confusing as this may look, we are in a downtrend, although the price moves to the top of its resistance area which is now 4812 and then moves down to the bottom, which is now 4772, reverses up and heads for the now lowered top and then reverses back down to the LOWER LOW, which is the super dooper technical explanation for a downtrend --- making lower highs and lower lows

    what is happening is that "they" can drop the price EVER SO SLOWLY, taking up the day and trading half pip moves forever, while the bottom or top price hardly moves at all and is the reason why its so hard for the retail trader, under the new regulations, to make any profit and sometimes to actually even be trading in the right direction


    1717 ZULU -- ANTICIPATE REVERSAL AT 4774 ("possible 4769 with 64 also possible) at 1730 ZULU------if the action gets furious towards 1730, 63 could be bottom

    1739 ZULU --- presently, having dropped below the the previous days closing price the general assumption is we go lower as we have broken the upside trend to the bottom --- 30 min chart shows 4777, 4773, 4770, 4769, 4765 --- obviously there will be retraces along the way, and the 30 min chart takes a while, but thats whats presently showing --- 15 min charts shows 77 as probable reversal point to 4798 area and continuing lower (a very possible 4804 for the retrace, but thats strong and hard) --- looking below the pivot lies at 4793 and thats a good place to be heading even though its showing weakly --- using 60 min chart, 4772 would be a good reversal point for safety

    AS IN BELOW POSTS BOTTOM RANGE, I CAUTION AT THE 4780 POINT as a "wait and see" positon because we ARE in an uptrend, just enjoying a little downside for fun so DONT GET CAUGHT SHORT !

    enjoy and trade well

    mp


    KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE are the handmaidens of the riches of forex, and i buy them roses every day, with many a thank you !
     
    #29 mp6140, Apr 28, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2011
  10. mp6140

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    MP -- coming up on 2100 ZULU

    anticipate 2100 to bring continuation of this upside move on the 15 minute chart --- 4845 (4859 slightly possible) should be top --- presently appears that once we top on the 15, we should reverse down to 4785 area for a small retrace, with all the usual nonsense that entails, and from that point we remain with two choices (naturally) and i believe we will go lower and support is 4812, 4809, 4807 which should cause a decent retrace and 4802

    upside is showing 4831 for a reverse working up to 4837 and down the road, 4844 after another reverse

    Looks like the pivot is not to be kissed today(well, truth be told she only goes out with delta force chaps), but anything can and does change constantly


    btw, next real upside move shows 4922 as a good resistance point (many before that) and i wonder if 1.500 might well prove to be a turning point.

    as always, being long is never a bad thing, even with the retraces, cause its the bloody trend and thats that !


    2200 ZULU --- shame on me for looking at the wrong pivot point --- we kissing it now and showing reversal at 4831, which is to be expected and showing reversal support at 4804.

    upper limits for the 15 min chart show 4839 and later, 4850 and downside presently show 4800


    1436 ZULU ----FINALLY we kiss the pivot or go under, and it seems we go under now, BUT IT WILL TAKE ONE MORE RETRACE AT LEAST and showing 4800

    0353 ZULU ---- still riding the uptrend, although moving down within it with 4934, 4946 showing topside on the H4 with a good resist at 4888 --- downside still saying 4800 (H4 showing 4779) but this thing wants up to 1.5000 REAL badly.


    More complete overnites (next days -- lol) coming after midnite


    enjoy and trade well

    mp


    Some people say I'm a grumpy, mean, old man.
    That's not true.
    I have the heart of a kind and gentle soul...

    in a jar on my desk.
     
    #30 mp6140, Apr 28, 2011
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2011

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