Mp | Intermediate Term Points E/U

[mp6140]

mp -- 05.05.2011

1130 ZULU --- some of you who have been here a while would have seen this coming, since we were trading in a range with downside indicators, but today shall be spent exploring the downside (for the most part) which is presently showing 4806 and dropping and while Im not jumping just this second, i look at 4780 and smile.

at this moment, price is moving upside while we remain in a downward trend and presently show 4842 as a good topside in the short term --- looking further (30 min chart) upside shows at 4879 when the dust clears, and when thats all over, and we go down for a while, we should then come back up to the 4901 area that i was gonna mention last nite, but said we would take care of today.

1311 ZULU --- WHEEEEEEEE -- stock market opened and here we goes ----
4736 shows on the 5 min while downside 4648 shows with 4612 below


EDIT --- 4736 shows so far with a reverse probable and then continuation to 4753 along the way, but we will not forget that downside still showing nicely and anticipate reversal at approximately 1430 ZULU

1410 ZULU --- WHAT a ride huh ??? --- present trend is still downward so enjoy --- 4649 to be hit and looks like its pushed down to 4587 if there is enough time left which is 18 minutes as of this post ---- SHOWING NOW downside at 4531 but dont bet the farm just yet, cause there will be upside (i believe) that will give you more pips when you set a downside trade from the top of the upside --- i read that in a book someplace ![/B

PRESENTLY HEADING TO 4600 WITH REVERSAL AT 4580

4587 now shows and more below till noon

4519 shows

enjoy and trade well

we shall talk a bit later

mp

 

[mp6140]

mp -- 05.05.2011 continued

1712 ZULU --- still in a downtrend but moving up at this time --- final on upside looks to be 45879 and then looking to reverse to 4661, 4559 and 4553 with retraces of course. This based on the 5 min chart presently

1932 ZULU ---- with the usual ups and downs, we have a fairly nice downside move continuing (not that it ever really stopped) AND PRESENTLY SHOWING 4429 ON THE 30 MIN CHART

lets start being careful though, because the US DOLLAR INDEX HAS SPIKED UPWARDS (RESULTING IN eu going down) BUT, historically that is the move just prior to a continuation of its familiar downside move, which translates to UP for EU and the DJI has also gone DOWN, which normally forces EU to go UP . DONT GET CAUGHT SHORT --- best to play this carefully from rollover on!



2200 ZULU --- "presently" moving up in a downward trend but that "normally" changes at this time, meaning we should move downwards to 4527 safely--- then a very good chance of moving upwards to 4561 and 4570 before coming back down

have to admit Im a touch confused here, simply because the support at 4526 SHOULDNT be there, as everything shows that 4518 is a better support point so IM ONLY HOLDING TILL 4535 short, and then watching for what will probably go long !


2422 ZULU -- presently looking at 4488 on the down side with 4575 on the upside

for edification purposes only as it may just be a bit too early to try this at home ---- DAILY chart has reached a tentative 4424 showing and appears heading for a possible 4361 which is kinda phenominal, sorta kinda ! --- as of midnite edst on thursday, DAILY is showing 4397 highly probable with 4361 next support down

 

[mp6140]

mp -- 5.5.11 evening

0100 ZULU -- its trying for 4584 on the 15 min chart, and 4577 on the one minute, with the 5 min heading the way of the 15 --- believe it should continue after 0100 (9p,m, edst)

0313 ZULU --- presently showing 4536 (prior days close) about to be hit and pointing DOWN to 4506 (remember that one) and heading for 4459, with a topside move showing 4573 and a possible 4637 placing the pivot at 4648 within reach
OVERNITES AFTER 0400 ZULU

0440 ZULU --- Im not changing anything from the above for overnites, so gn to all and many pips in the morning to ya !

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.6.2011

GM TRADERS --- a very nice nite indeed and the NFP and all the rest just added to it for a while --- dangerous because we approach trend reversal in this area as a likely, but perhaps not see it really till sunday or monday, and with the bad news, EU should be going UP --- so the whole magilla is a mess that DEMANDS care and NO REAL LONG TERM SHORTS for safety, at least.

the US dollar index has formed a doji candle and it appears ready to head DOWN, which means we return to the UP movement of EU sometime today.

we have hit our target for the downside and i need to investigate if there shall be further movement or not, at least until the normal reversal at 1600 ZULU

1500 ZULU -- present upside showing 4540 area and downside now moving up to 4509 area, respecting that we hit 4508 which may indeed be our bottom (well, we went lower than that but we revisited the 08 which is usually a "kissoff" -- at this moment, and its very early indeed, I would not continue with too many shorts until clarity returns

1624 ZULU ---- ROFLMAO --- well, sometimes a great notion and sometimes a sharp stick in the eye --- all the information on downside moves exist on the posts below, so theres simply nothing more for me to say except

enjoy and trade well

mp

A warning though, tread carefully at 4333 because we signal upside move after this downside.

4645 presently showing for upside (pivot point) with 4521 as a spot to watch moving in both directions, and 4342 presently showing downside with 4320 probable bottom for a while

 

[mp6140]

IS ANYONE READING OR PROFITING (or losing for that matter) WITH THIS JUNK i post here ?


ANYWAY, WHILE NOT VERY POPULAR IN YEARS PAST (EXCLUDING THE MAIN PIVOT POINT) THE BANKS APPEAR TO BE USING ALL THE PIVOT POINTS AVAILABLE, INCLUDING THE CAMARILLA --- try throwing some on your charts and notice WHERE the price reverses often.

0200 ZULU --- for the curious, price is moving up at this point as traders rid themselves of the shorts for over the weekend (two reasons are traders dont want to get caught short if something happens thats VERY newsworthy AND carrying a short position for any length of time ends up as a negative rollover that adds up quickly over a period of a few days) Another, less obvious situation is that many brokers close their servers to the retail trade at 4pm edst BUT the market continues for another hour ---- guess whats happening while you are baking a potatoe ? The brokers are changing the direction of the price, so if it went up they are now short AND YOU CANT PARTICIPATE and further, when you get back online on Sunday, the price has moved well away from your orders and TP points, and because the servers were closed and your trades DID NOT CLOSE, you are STUCK !

to give you some idea of how bad the negative rollover can be, in the last week the company earned 27,500 pips (I trade 6 lots per trade) and PAID over $5000 in rollover fees ---- sure like it better when the rollover is on our side !

have a great weekend and see ya'll on sunday

mp

and from warren buffet yet again ------- Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.

 

[mp6140]

MP --

0400 ZULU -- 05.07.2011

hard for me to believe but doing some chart work is showing 1.3647. I cannot tell you WHEN, and certainly not for a while as there is a LOT of support between where we are and where the black box says we are heading "someday", but thought some might like the news.

personally, i like the next support which is 4311 and 4304
upside on those is showing .......... well, not showing anything of worth actually !

after that we should start seeing some upside playing, but will have to wait for sunday and mondays fun to lock that in.

enjoy and trade well

mp

The economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters. ~Jean-Paul Kauffmann

 

[mp6140]

MP -- 5.7.2011 thoughts

1600 ZULU --- having bounced off the L4 pivot which is also the prior close on thursday (see how well the pivots work and i bet mr fibonacci has some stuff that works well there also, although I dont use his teachings much) our first upside resistance showing is 4358 which should result in a downside move to 4345 or possibly 4326 followed by upside to 4368, 4380 and after a while, 4406 --- this will be the opening salvo which can, after the dust clears, have hit 4401 and then showing a breakdown that at best this moment shows 4294, which should then bring us more upside activity.

when the smoke clears, highly possible is a move down to 4265, 4258 with (gasp) 4154 presently showing (remember that 3647 ? --- SOMEtime, and not that far away, we shall be down there although 4155 is a definite, AFTER SOME UPSIDE PLAY ==== UNLESS YOU ARE CAPABLE OF HANDLING VERY LARGE DRAWDOWNS WITH A SMILE ON YOUR FACE, DO NOT TAKE THIS 4155 TRADE AT THIS MOMENT).

UJ is still functioning as a nice hedge trade to EU and while many are touting AUD, for right or wrong I have found that sticking with ONE or TWO ctrosses ALWAYS ends up being better than trying to learn every new "trade of the week" that comes along --- maybe its just me, but over the long term I honestly feel I enjoy it more by sticking with the one i love and not hopping into bed with every other I meet.(AFTER ALL, when your fun consists of being in bed wearing a crash helmet, water wings, roller skates, a toga, a calabash pipe and drinking courvoisier thru a elephant tusk straw, its REALLY best if your partner FULLY understands you and your minor "quirks" !). The other side of the coin, which may be more realistic, is simply that AUD is behaving almost in step with EUR so why bother if i already KNOW EUR ?(TAKE A LOOK AT BOTH EUR AND AUD DAILY CHART AND FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF !

oh, theres one thing that lives with me forever --- i distrust, but more to the point . . . . . . . HATE GJ --- she reminds me of the girl next door, all sweet and homespun one minute and the next she's thrown mud in your face, stolen your wallet. ATM passwords and cel phone, is wearing leathers and riding on the back of a harley with a hells angel. Essentially, after she hurt me a few times, I decided that she could danged well live the biker life and leave me alone !


enjoy and trade well

mp

If women didn't exist, all the money in the world would have no meaning. ~Aristotle Onassis

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.8.2011

The big problem with intermediate term trades with EU is the Dollar index --- presently it is absolutely possible for it to continue UP for another two days (or more actually), which would move EU DOWN (of course) --- it is certainly giving hints that is possible but its also hinting that we are due for a reversal, as the shorts sell off, allow the price to reach back UP and then SHORT once again --- one of the clues we use is to attempt see how much buying is being done without the price rising a lot --- this is because those who are selling into the rising price are doing so with the knowledge that the price will come down again and the large amount of "selling" (which is actually taking short positions) does not allow the dumb money to keep raising the prices. (since the banks know EXACTLY how high they will allow the price to go on this part of its journey)

Its a strange dance, and not always easy to see, but one of the things we try to depend on to keep our posterior regions out of the frying pan !

but i have to go out on the limb, cause thats my job --- i "feel" we should continue DOWN before we go UP again, and please dont run me out of town on a rail if i miss this one --- this "prophecy" stuff just aint so simple !

and for those of you who actually read this stuff, understand that the posts UNDER the newest one contain valuable information --- information that still holds true but that I dont duplicate each time i post --- other words, if i call for a bottom 2 or 3 posts ago, and its not reached yet, unless I CHANGE that in a newer post, the old one still holds !

but since so many like her, lemme give a shot at AUD for a bit -- with NO experience on this currency, I'm working the high wire without a net (or brains perhaps) so here goes my famous "out on a limb routine)

on the daily, price has retreated to the prior close and slightly above the 50 fib, which is also slightly above the pivot which is also above its first major support at 1.0599. Given the nature of how prices retrace and what is presently showing, 07631 is the top of the daily range and 1.06296 (pivot) is the lower side PRESENTLY.

if we open to the DOWNSIDE today, i would look for 0685 as the bounce point for heading UP, with life taking us back down to the pivot on monday.

If we open UP, reverse what i said or turn your monitors upside down

Final Downside should be 0599 with a possible 0563 for the brave and foolish

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.8.2011

2208 ZULU --- EU showing upside to 4405 if 4388 is broken nicely -- presently, should be a reversal at 4369 - 4395 on the one min, which definitely leads to downside move 4322

4391, 4395, 4397 in sight

0144 ZULU -- sorry, a little busy here but heading for 4402-3 with 06 showing on the 5 minute chart ---- 4417 shows as PRESENT top on 15 min chart, which is pivot and expected, while downside shows 4341 and 4270 PRESENTLY --- anticipate reversal to downside approximately 0230 ZULU -------------- EDIT --- SORRY, WHILE they are trading lower, the reversal should end up to the UPSIDE, not downside showing 4409, 14 and the pivot at 44168 as stated before --- its just the old up and down for a change
--- downside at 4398 with 4393 showing later or, err . . . . . . . . . maybe sooner by golly

POINT OF INFORMATION -- so i dont have to constantly repeat myself, if i give you a top on the 5 min chart, NORMALLY there will be a retrace at that point and then, time allowing, the price will head towards the top of the 15 min chart, assuming the short term trend is UP --- MOMENTUM changes things and often when momo is VERY STRONG, the price will just keep moving up (in this case)

another usable trick in forex is to notice those pesky spikes --- well, most of the time they aint so pesky as much as they INDICATE where price will be going later --- right now i have a big spike DOWN on the 5 minute chart that ends at 4351 and I will put money on the fact that we DO go there ! What happened is we were about to move up and some large pocket trader pushed the price down by buying a LOT of lots at that price, and now it becomes a reliable support point because it was already used once.

 

[mp6140]

0255 ZULU possible reversal at 4393 but should see 4390 soon

PRESENT RANGE --- appears to be 44064 topside and 4218 DOWNSIDE with a upside reversal formed, so we should see that pivot along the way --- 4389 present bottom showing with possible 4386

Those of you clever enough to have the Bols on your charts please notice the one min chart for EU --- the 50 bols is above the 20 bols, which is as close to "bet the farm" that forex is gonna give you -- simply means, at the least, we will hit the 50 bols after the 20 (and a very small retrace) and looking at the 5 min chart, we see next support is 4388, the same as final on the one minute --- doesnt get much better than that

MY APOLOGIES on the prior reversal --- some day, even though its my native language, i will learn how to type american english --- since the price was RISING on the 5 minute before the reversal, its direction would be DOWN, not UP as i had said --- my two lady friends are beating me with a wet noodle for the screwup as we speak.

the NEXT reversal at 0400 ZULU "should" go up (PLEASSSSSSSE)

0400 ZULU --- appears PRESENTLY that top should be that elusive pivot point at 44168 and bottom presently at 4318 (previous days close) --- if indeed we drop to 4318 and do not break down, we be heading up again, but we also pretty well knew that as the dollar index appears ready to alter course --- this may develop into a rocky sort of ride as appearances are "they" wish to drop the price and 4230 shows nicely and below that lies 4150 on the Daily (but first raise it so theres profit in the drop, naturally )

0409 ZULU -- present trend is UP, but we are finishing off heading for the bottom which presently shows 4386, although we hit 4389 first and then should reverse and hit the 4386 but all said and done, we WILL hit the pivot at 4169 and probably move up to 4444