Mp | Intermediate Term Points E/U

September started way of trading - anyone ahead at this point after the new regs ?

  • Its never been easier

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Who do I shoot ?

    Votes: 2 66.7%
  • Money, whats that ?

    Votes: 1 33.3%
  • I havent a clue as to whats happening out there

    Votes: 1 33.3%

  • Total voters
    3
  • Poll closed .
Mp -- 5.15.2011

the price has broken below both the 240 and 1440 trend lines which invariably calls for a retrace of some sort ------ 4124 breaking to the upside is to be watched for -- should it break that resistance strongly and with momentum and volume, 4165 and 4171 is the first major resistance on the H4. GOING OUT ON THE LIMB AS USUAL, I think we make 4171 as a solid, and then the game is played by ear for a while as 4171 is VERY strong BUT 4194, 4213 and 4224 also shows very STRONG !

I would take the 4170 trade with no qualms with a sorta hesitent 4194 , and while being prepared for higher, wait a little to see what momentum and the gods bring forth as present trend and direction are pointing at a DOWNSIDE of 4100 easily, and we know theres more available down there. One thing that bothers me, and I am NOT going there yet, is a very strong resistance at 4358 and above, but i cannot commit to that as of this moment without seeing how much bullish momentum we might pick up and it certainly is a stretch to get to there.

DAILY CHART is plainly bearish with 3560 (gulp) showing as VERY possible (but we all know it wont get there without a lot of going UP first)



Looking to the H4 and the DOWNSIDE, 4030 is a very very strong point at the moment, with much below but with most certainly more than a few upside reversals while moving there

0126 ZULU -- present downside heading for 4034 with possible small retrace at 4045

0230 ZULU -- UPSIDE showing 4113 which was prior days closing price and at this time I believe we should see only a slight retrace before we head for there, and if the retrace is larger, we should still head there and probably head down from that point. 4102 will bring on a decent reversal i believe that one should watch out for
 
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Mp -- 5.15 - 16.2011

0335 ZULU -- 15 and 30 min chart showing 4116 (opening price) as a safe top before we come back down again overnite while the H4 shows a continuation to 4125 before its reversal --- other words, 15 and 30 should drop from the 4116 area to 4022, bounce up to 4125 and then return down to 3979 and lower ---- they will probably be eating marshmallows on the whole trip and waving euros

0514 ZULU --- its a bloody mess out there but lets see if we can come up with something decent\

15 min chart
UPSIDE ----- 4089 at trendline shows with upside of 4099 (STRONG RESISTANCE), 4104, 4105, 4108
DOWNSIDE -- 4075 (the 15 min usually bounces its full range at least once a nite and then goes to the higher timeframe TP points at which point it should head back down.

30 min chart
UPSIDE ----- 4118 shows
DOWNSIDE -- 4064 presently

60 min chart
UPSIDE ------ 4115 - 4117 agrees with others with possible 4124, 4129 and trend line resist at 4167 (not too crazy about above 4117 as of this moment.
DOWNSIDE --- 4044 with reversal to 4087 and then down to 4023


H4 CHART
UPSIDE ------- 4123 and now it gets tricky because 4222 is showing strength, but remember, this is the H4 and that can take a while if momentum is not strong in europe

enjoy and trade well

mp
 
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UPSIDE presently shows 4205, 4226 and final at 4247 RETRACEMENTS expected between each resistance level

Remember the one situation that rarely fails --- when news moves a price in a direction it shouldnt be going in, that price WILL return right to the penny of where it first started moving, and then continue in the direction it was originally going. Other words, the DOWNSIDE is still to come after the upside push.

4234 to be watched for possible reversal

4244 showing reluctance --- 4250 - 4256 coming kinda and 4260 possible but getting close -- havent time to find exit -- moving to fast

1514 ZULU --- present range showing 4238 UPS9IDE and 4114 (our old friend the prior days close) DOWNSIDE

1812 ZULU -- watch 4244 --- if broken, there is 4248 showing and i prefer 4244
 
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present Downside Shows 4140 with 4135 as a reversal point moving up to 4139 and then 4115, 4110 and 4124 showing -- given time, after the reversal up and back down (perhaps late tues or wed) 4111 and if broken, 4106 where it should end up in a few days

UPSIDE shows 4176, 4179


4215 showing to the upside and is possible indeed, but not for the faint of heart --- while possible, it may drop a bit and 4210 might be safer IF YOU GOT THE GUTS AND THE EQUITY TO COVER as its really a Hail Mary sort of trade and not advised if youre sleeping thru it and not wide awake all nite
 
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Mp -- 5.17.2011

HAIL MARY IT MAY HAVE BEEN, but it was also the right thing for last nite. (and yes, I did it by gum ~)

We are showing a downside sideways continuation that will bring us back down, but much slower than dropping directly from the H4 top trendline

Presently, H4 seems to have a bit more upside to go, so lets see whats happening today, which "should" a continuation with reversal tonite or wed.

moving down at the moment, but after 4137 lets see where we go as 4217 is smiling at the upside, just profit taking right now (until it breaks the trend, that is )


1242 ZULU -- presently heading for prior close, open and pivot (AS USUAL) and so we wait to see if broken, although last nites figures still hold --- 4196 on the UPSIDE SHOWING and 4117 on the DOWNSIDE anticipated

2032 ZULU -- 4245 supposed to be top with 42638 and 4286 presently showing half hour before rollover but reversal expected at 4238.

2100 ZULU -- UPSIDE PRESENTLY SHOWING 4275 BUT we should move into a retrace at this moment, and if we are to see those numbers (which is very possible, it wont be till later -- now we watch to see if it drops and for how much

2135 ZULU -- at the present time I believe the retrace to be a very short one moving to 4234 with retrace up and perhaps down to 4232 by 2230 ZULU simply because upward momentum appears to be too strong. If Im wrong and it continues down, could see 4231 and a possible 4229
 
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2310 ZULU -- UPSIDE SHOWING 4302 presently, with resistance at 4283, 4302 and a possible 4339

0322 ZULU -- while the 4302 - 4304 stands, a new "possible" has opened up at 4316. Not simple, but if the momentum continues, Ii would think we reach the 4300 area and retrace to 4248 and then continue up to the 4316 area.

from that point on Its foggy --- UPSIDE SHOWING after that is 4490 or we retrace back down to 4097 or 3886 which is the logical order --- gonnal sit patiently and wait for our top to run up the flag when it gets there, I hope !


at the present time these are my major TP points (i have many TP points, but they are usually just points on the way from one major to another -- its called scalping.
4287, 4288, 4281, 4294, 4298, 4300,4315

PLEASE BE VERY CAREFUL FROM 4302 UPWARDS with 4339 LOOKING LIKE A SOLID REVERSAL POINT IF 4315 is broken decisevly , but the air gets rarified up there and mistakes cost a lot.

PRELIMINARY DOWNSIDES
4266, 4272 - 4239 with a possible 4217 on the H4 chart -- so you can see the upside is definitely favored




Just for giggles, DAILY showing downside to 3806(breaks 4005 first) after hitting 4381 although Im more secure with 4325-33 as a topside at this moment -- hopefully, if its gonna keep going, I can add to positions in the morning
 
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5.18.2011

1430 ZULU --- nothing much has changed since last nites post, although I had no way of seeing how low it would go, but what the heck.

1838 ZULU --- presently working on yesterdays posts and present range showing 4278 UPSIDE with 4164 DOWNSIDE ---- most likely will continue up to 4309 and come back down to anticipated bottom, but taking its own sweet time about it ---- for the scalpers out there, its a wonderful world but for the H4 traders it must be kinda slow.

1200 ZULU --- 4288 could be reversal point and after have 4308 showing when it comes back up later(essentially same as last nites calls as today was simply a "trading spit" day, where everyone practiced their extreme short term trading abilities

the DOLLAR INDEX is now falling, with indicators moving down from overbought conditions which causes the EU to move UP in reaction naturally --- nothing in the world says it cant reverse, but at least for today that is whats caused this move UP, which was predicted === perhaps like those in "mudville" I hold out hope that when Casey gets to bat, we go back down to where the gods say we should, but until europe later today, im trading long for the most part

1436 ZULU -- present top showing 4300 - 4301 - 4302 with reversal anticipated(present momentum says it shouldnt be very large, but should last to 0400 ZULU and after bounce, should see 4306, 08, 4318 as of this moment

LOL -- well, guess momentum was too strong to stop but still expect reversal before 0400 ZULU
 
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5.18 - 19.2011 overnites

0415 ZULU -- presently holding UPSIDE at 4295 safely with 4304 right there also -- DOWNSIDE range showing 4257

for those with ice water in their veins and the ability to work without a net, we also show 4295 UPSIDE with a small retrace and UP to 4318

DOWNSIDE shows --- 4357, 4251 and on the H4 4150


and for those who ignore everything but their gut feelings, 4336 - 4350 shows on the H4 upside

BLACK BOX giggling at the moment and spit out a fortune cookie -- fortune says --- UPSIDE 4548 for the VERY patient but it also reminds us of 3837 down there waiting also
 
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Mp -- 5.19.2011

1252 ZULU -- presently looking at 4211 and if broken, 42065 DOWNSIDE , 42865 UPSIDE

1812 ZULU --- early, but this is what shows for UPSIDE ------ which "should" reverse and then 4323 strong, 4333, 4347STRONG, 4352, 4371STRONG

DOWNSIDE is narrow range at 4301STRONG, 4284, 4267, 4254

ABOVE 4335 REQUIRES CARE AND WATCHING and that may well not happen before tonite, but those are whats ahead before we head back down


0100 ZULU --- 4345 showing for top presently on the H4 trendline with 4299 showing DOWNSIDE.

Euro news comes out overnite and is most likely reason for no movement at this point ---- now, This I cant swear to and will have to wait until tomorrow to find out (well, not the ones who stay up all nite, but thats not gonna be me) but I "believe" we see the euro DROP at this point and head back to its awaited bottom. If we get bad news the "normal" procedure is to move the price in the OPPOSITE direction one would expect and then reverse the price within 1/2 to 1 hour, now going in the proper direction ---- presently upside still remains for EU and that "could" be taken up with that "wrong way" move to 4370 area

In truth though, even though Im reasonably near the ex - IMF chief in NYC, he hasnt told me a thing and I dont know which way we go, although my sneaking suspicion is DOWN.
 
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5.21.2011 thoughts

1730 ZULU -- cheers

present bullish engulfing candle on the Dollar Index supports continued downside move of EU, with approximately 26% movement left and the DJI is doing its thing to help also.

based on original estimates, nothing has changed except some news induced movement, but still maintaining the downside moves already predicted below.


enjoy and trade well

mp
 
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