Mp | Intermediate Term Points E/U

[mp6140]

5.22.2011 out on a limb time

1615 ZULU --- aint this something else now --- stocks selling off pushes the dollar UP, or is it the other way around ? we got continuation on the dollar index, dropping on stocks and the DJI and this is all good for the dollar --- sometimes wall street simply amazes me

the longer range thoughts are fairly simple ---- all indications are for the continued fall of the euro with the upside mark to watch being 41591. If not broken, we should see 4116 - 4111 (next strong support) as a bounce point and while not today, in its own stupid fashion we will see 3941, 3816 and down the road, 3782

Just getting into plotting whats happening so give me a few hours to find a tree limb to climb out on


2200 ZULU ---- UPSIDE movement is showing the pivot (naturally) as a final point for later at 42063 but probably going to 4229, with lower resist at 4159 (prior days close) and final (as of this moment) SUPPORT at 4025

at that point we enter a form of "half way hell" which is the half way point between the upper price and the lower price and usually ends up in consolidation with much the same trading as last week

2241 ZULU -- 4119 shows with 4093 on the 15 min chart

dont blame me if you aint in it --- i told ya what it would do[/B

0147 ZULU -- 4041 showing on 5 minute chart for bottom, 4070 coming up on 15 min chart but looks to break ----

0505 ZULU -- presently showing 4075, 4041, 4024 and 4002 working downwards for supports
bottom of 3948, 3895 ,3784 and 3737 presently showing longer term downside

 

[mp6140]

Mp 5.23.2011

for those who think sunday is not a good day to trade, you sure have missed one heck of a run --- try not to make that mistake again

0600 ZULU -- present downside showing 4045 on the 15 min, with 4014 showing on the H4
agreement on all timeframes except the H4 which makes its own journey at its own pace. believe we should seek upside at 4044 - 4040 area

DAILY DOWNSIDE showing 3929 presently with 3892 showing

0744 ZULU --- present downside showing 3995 with upside move to 4030 area expected, then resumption of downside move to 3979 --- much more per DAILY prices is showing but this has to stop for breath someplace

0849 ZULU --- now dont set a trade for there just yet, but DAILY showing downside to 3152 at some point. For now though, 3983 shows nicely with 3970 and 3967 below that, 3942 below that and definitely heading for 3855 soon.

euro news was not good and no usa news for monday, so this may just become a complete "the sky is falling" routine

watch for a 3977 break, as thats presently showing on the 30 min chart and below that is 3962 presently
For the very brave at heart and with big pockets, 3937 showing with a conceiveable 3778 waiting

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.23.2011

1635 ZULU --- aint it grand when the price follows the script ?

kinda the "going up since we went down" part of the days entertainment and presently looking at 4069 as decent resistance as of this moment --- dont weep if youve got some shorts sitting there, cause the party will continue downside later today.

2300 ZULU -- been silent today cause I spelled it out a few days ago and there just wasnt a thing to add. Not being a smart ass here, but this is what I do and its just not all that difficult, most of the time anyway, and when it is, you drop back and punt.

The art of trading forex, indices, commodities or futures lies in being able to read a list of numbers --- all of it is based on support and resistance and essentially traders work from one support point to another resistance point or vice versa depending on price direction. With a little bit of learning and the right tools, most anyone can do pretty well, EVEN WOMEN you chauvinistic males out there. In fact some of the really best teachers who are excellent traders are women -- more patient in my opinion.

But anyway, sometimes predicting aint always so simple, cause theres a lot of things can happen between looking at a chart, posting ones feelings, and the actual trading 12 hours later, but the trading part is kinda simple, no matter what timeframe you wish to use.


0109 ZULU -- while it probably doesnt look that way, we are actually moving UP by making higher highs and higher lows every few hours looking at 4055 (welllllllllll --- 4081 is not so bad and its ABOVE THE PIVOT POINT BY GOLLY) presently as a reversal point in the upside move -- look on your one minute charts, pulled back to the whole day and you see it real good.

oh yeah, them shorts --- tomorrow methinks


PRELIMINARY BLACK BOX PREDICTIONS

60 min chart
UPSIDE ---- 4075 - 4080
DOWNSIDE - 4019

30 min chart
UPSIDE ----- 4077 with possible 4089 and a real stretch would be 4101
DOWNSIDE - 4017

15 min chart
UPSIDE ----- 4072
DOWNSIDE -- 4047 with 4037 possible

DAILY CHART READ --
UPSIDE ----- 4092 - 4141 with resist at 4123 --- a fight at 4141 could result in an overshoot to 4158
MIDPOINT -- 4012 - 4069 (often a nice reversal point)
DOWNSIDE -- 4046 presently showing but 4017 is nicer -- with a little bit of time, 3931 but with care, as 3985 is showing stronger at the moment ---- dont think we do that tonite


CANDLE DAILY CHART
DOWNSIDE ---- 3926 shows and heading for 3864, 3844 and 3762 BUT thats for future reference as we presently have one of them "changing direction and going up" candles showing (bullish hammer/doji sort of thing) but only for a little while methinks

and lo and behold --- we ARE going up !

Presently we are at a mid point between the upper trend and lower trend on the DAILY and below I described it as "half way hell" because thats exactly what it is --- expect volitility until the price decides to resume its downward direction because it becomes an area where the smart money is doing a lot of fighting both up and down (and often at the same time) and can be tricky at times

enjoy and trade well

mp

"Those who live by the sword kill those without swords and go on living."

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.24.2011

2217 ZULU -- presently DAILY BLACK BOX reads
UPSIDE --- 4138 with 4156 right above it
DOWNSIDE -- 4077 (the PIVOT POINT, naturally)

we made a double bottom at 3965 so anticipate upside move continuance but we are still in a downtrend unless we break out above 4187 and i feel we will continue that downtrend soon which still appears to be heading for 3914 and 3893 and sooner or later it should go down to 3743 but that will be a bit more time yet

didnt have much to say today cause it was all spelled out days ago on the posts below, but will slink in here later to look at the overnites and tomorrows predictions, good, bad or indifferent !

2238 ZULU --- 4085 looks to be a strong reversal point and coming up soon[/B

0215 ZULU ---- present upside shows 4112 with 4125 highly possible
downside showing 3966
midpoint at 4051 --- watch 4028 for heavy support


0518 ZULU -- retraCE AT 4030 should not last long and heading for 4011

30 min chart showing 4012 and heading for 4002 area,
60 min chart showing 4022 reversal and heading for 4001 with 3992 below
H4 chart showing 4001 with retrace at 4022 - 21 area heading for 4001 with 3980 showing below -- [B]there is a CHANCE that we can come down to 3931 area, and its a good chance, but just when gets to be the harder side (3990 appears to be a retrace point unless momentum picks up greatly so may take another day to see that number)

retraces can reach 4077(pivot point) with 4098 above

enjoy and trade well
mp

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.25.2011

0237 ZULU --- preliminary "tonite into tomorrow" anticipated TP points

US DOLLAR INDEX shows more upside (EU reacts opposite to dollar index movements) meaning we have more downside, as predicted

UPSIDE ------ 4113 ---- 4105 safer and over soon
DOWNSIDE --- 4065 with upside reversal at 4073 (15 min chart)
DOWNSIDE --- 4068 with upside reversal at 4071

DAILY CHART SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE OF 4221 BEFORE A GENUINE DOWNSIDE MOVE TO 3895 AGAIN, BUT 4117 WOULD HAVE TO BE BROKEN DECISIVELY --- all in all it looks highly possible to me at this point

ANTICIPATED DOWNSIDE REVERSAL AT 2100 ZULU going to 4060 and reversing back UP

Lemme try to explain these upside/downside reversals real quickly --- first and foremost, for the first time in many a year they are no longer written in stone, they can MOVE as the trading trends and MOMENTUM change, although most still stick to their chosen task (i also sometimes believe because of the pollen count in rumania, but i havent researched it enough to include it into a "system") --- now the bottom line is even though we know where the TP is on any particular timeframe, they throw these roadblocks in the way so that as we approach a TP (short side let us say), any traders who were lost in the sands of mongolia or on vacation aboard the space shuttle can now grab some lots and get into the action with their buddies in budapest or the femmes in franconia.

Now as all these traders grab lots, the price moves up cause what the heck, if youve got a few thousand of something someone wants badly, you keep raising the price to make your short term profits go up ---- its capitalism at work !

Now we can anticipate this UPSIDE move a couple of different ways, or in fact use all of them which is even better --- old man Fibonacci was one heck of a guy with a pretty high pre-inflation IQ lemme tell ya and his work works, then there are thingies that tell you the support and resistance areas on each and every move and throw in all the pivot points known to man and beast and you have one COMPLETE little trading system for extremely short term trading results --- now Fibs are simple BUT they only show where the price CAN go and you have to wait for each to be hit and and BROKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, then you can ASSUME the price will go to the next fib point so its a lot of GUESSING and results in a lot of TP's being set too high --- SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE takes longer to learn, but if one trades the same pair constantly, you get a good idea of how it retraces and then you have all those pivot points (camarilla, standard, extended, etc) but they, like fibs, are a bit of a guess also since they require exactly the same ASSUMPTIONS.

BUT IF YOU COMBINE ALL THREE, you will find AGREEMENT at some point where the price tries to grab you by the neck and scream in your ear that THIS IS IT DUMMY, and by golly gee, dont you just want to bet the price will go there, leaving you breathlessly rich and able to quit your day job and for those who are married, finally having something to shut your mother in law up FOREVER as even she has to agree you were DEFINITELY the right man for their princess ?

Oh yeah, theres a bit more to it also and it involves what day is it in the present up or down move, what time of day is it, how great is the momentum (more momentum equals LESS retrace), but then you dont learn brain surgery in a few days and since a good trader makes FAR more than most any brain surgeon (doesnt seem fair, does it ?), there IS a steep learning process to the whole thing but in the end, if forex or any form of financial instrument trading is where you wish to be (and who wouldnt want it, as you can do it onboard your yacht in the bahamas or from your castle in spain), then you pays the price of learning (time, not money) and you goes ahead with it cause none of you is gonna get rich just cause i give you a few numbers to play with.

after EVERYONE around the world has grabbed a few thousand lots for themselves, THEN AND ONLY THEN will the mass conciousness decide to go down with the price or was said on the street years ago in the age of ticker tape ---- "theyre dropping their shorts", which was changed when TV was allowed on the floor to prevent consternation amongst the family hour viewers.

and after all is said and done, we FINALLY get to our TP point that we set over granola in the wee hours of the morning, over 10 hours ago --- aint forex grand !

Now, I have found the recipe for certain success in forex and it harkens back to the agricultural age when men wished for many sons so as to have a workforce in the fields ---- well, things have changed and now we let a bunch of illegal aliens attend to the field work and we put the sons on SHIFTS, 24/7 around the clock, trading forex so the average forex family size, in a considerate family (not wanting to overwork any one participant) would be two, with the old man trading also or if the old man wanted to just be a pit boss, you would need three sons. Now a really caring family would have six sons, and split everything into four hour revolving shifts, and that would be peachy ! Understand that if the father and mother really worked at breeding traders, they could probably open their own brokerage and change the name of their business from "ye olde apple farm" to something with a more modern ring, such as "Elfinore Holdings, Inc" or "Chase Manhattan Financial Services" or something equally ritzy.

So thats how forex works, how you can win and why the price goes up just before the price goes down, or something like that.

It doesnt explain why Clive Cussler novels are so much fun, or why Olly North novels scare you with their accuracy, but as the price comes to where it should be, perhaps we might philosophise on that subject also.

BUT all along my journies in trading I have learned some valuable lessons --- the reasons most new trader types fail is first, they simply dont have the education to succeed and more importantly, without the will to REALLY learn this subject, you can do nothing but fail --- you may believe the advertisements the brokers put out about fast money, but fast money has a way of running AWAY from you even faster than COMING to you ---- If YOU are one of the serious ones (and there are really very few), then there is nothing on the planet that can give you the freedom and wealth that this game can give you, but its not for the diletante and there are an awful lot of you out there who maybe should be playing poker or something

enjoy and trade well

mp

 

[mp6140]

2400 ZULU -- presently anticipate 4141 with 4146 -4167 above, but watch for a small retrace at 9PM edst and then continuation up and watch out at 4138 as its one of those reversal points --- if it breaks we see 4179 and 4194 real soon but once again, watch out at 4138 and 4179

and no, i havent a clue as to whats driving this except some AUD news in about half an hour


4185 -- 4188 area to be watched for breakout ---- if done, 4205 next serious resistance then 4217

0200 ZULU -- present downtrend should end in half an hour (approx) AT 4158 (presently --- can go lower) 4149 is a stretch but "possible"

and the "stretch" was hit and broken and looking at 4138 -- we should retrace and see 4129 on the 15 min and lower numbers on the other timeframes as listed[/COLOR

0347 ZULU --- anticipate reversal to downside in 20 minutes or so and continuation with 4150 showing presently and trying for 4200 with a possible 4209 and then 4231 and possible 4241 (careful above 4211 please)

0400 ZULU -- DOWNSIDE SHOWING 4137 on the 15 which should cause a reversal and then we drop to 4129 with 4125, 4118, 4111 below,

4116 has a serious support level but after a retrace should continue down and then we should head back up like a roller coaster thingie


0414 ZULU CAUTION BELOW 4122 AREA -- although 4111 shows, much resistance at 4122[/SIZE]

0500 ZULU --- BLACK BOX just spit out 2 helpings of Almas Caviar and a chinese fortune cookie with the message 4290 is showing on the H4 although its reached a reversal point and showing 4120 on downside AND THEN reversal back up (i will believe that part for the shorter term anyway) and after that we go down a bunch again and remember the H4 is not known as the fastest moving timeframe in the bunch

GIVEN its rantings, I like 4212 right now, but always watching that 4240 area

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.26.2011

1400 ZULU ----- well GAH LEEEEE !

we hit that there first real top at 4201 and look what the danged thing is doing now ---- them smart money traders sure know how to have fun, dont they ?

well, we got bottoms on the prior posts as well as tops, and even a few middles in there so lets see if anythings changed


we got natural gas storage coming up in a few minutes and see how neatly the smart money plays this game --- they got the price up to a nice RESISTANCE point(the first really good one) and blasted the price down and are continuing the downside move, so they are now ready to have fun with whatever the announcement --- its the old limb routine again, but now that they got the price down low, i "believe" they should go POSITIVE with the price when dust clears after the news is released --- oh, some fakes here and there, cause they have to earn their bonuses, but pretty much UP

yesterday i said 4111 for the DOWNSIDE (4104 presently showing), so lets see what this coming news gets it down to
ok, first downside reversal point hit smack on the money and now we continue down, past my original points though --- if we are to go up today, then we almost have to the hit pivot, drop a bit under and then news should drive it back up along the way ---- pivot at 4072 and prior days close at 4087 and previous days high at 41186 and they all strong medicine BUT the pivot, the real honest to injun pivot --- now thats a central player by golly and gets a big chunk of this movie's budget !


OK boys and girls --- i gotta go make some money so Uncle Sam gets his economy strengthened so you all have fun and we come back later when some dust settles and see where we go

remember that rarely does the price not move in the opposite direction of where its actually heading for about half an hour, "normally" this means if the price is actually going down, the first reaction to news is UP, and then we go down --- in this case, what happens at the pivot determines most of the day and

4038 - 4035 showing

OMG --- did i say forty 38 --- OH MY -- LETS WAIT AND SEE AT THE PIVOT FOR A WHILE CAUSE THAT ONE IS DOWN THE ROAD, SO TO SPEAK !

[/B]

1441 ZULU ---- present course shows support at 4072 and followed by 4058 and 4011 which is yesterdays LOW and we seem to be heading there although care below 4079 as of this moment because we heading into a reversal period in 15 minutes --- which "could" be a short one and then continuation down which appears to be the scenerio here !


1810 ZULU --- while it may appear confusing, the truth is we are really in a very slowly descending DOWNTREND that has yet to reach the pivot and below --- this shall happen later, as usual, but first we should go up so we can go down, probably to the 4133 area with a retrace and then to 4147 area where we drop and then to the 4151 area and drop again with a present short term (ok, later today) bottom at 4069--- this is from the 15 min chart, so things will change, of course, as the other timeframes come into play later today



"10 - 4 GOOD BUDDY, YOU GOT THAT ONE MOVING VIOLATION AND WE GONE !"

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.26.2011

other post getting crowded so lets start a new one

1823 ZULU -- presently 4133 is a good reversal point down to at least 4124 and 4122, then back up to 4135, 37, 39 and 42 for another reversal, which should be around 5pm edst

reversed at 44 and down to 34 at the moment --- 4151 showing on the 5 min chart --- 4154 showing on 15 min chart

1846 ZULU --- showing 4130 aND 4129 and 27 FOR BOTTOMS NOW

CMON FOLKS --- MONOPOLY WAS NEVER THIS MUCH FUN !

1903 ZULU -- while it aint over,(27 - 28) thats what retraces are all about ---- and now 22 shows with 19 below and possible 18 --- below that with or without a reversal is 4112 which shows reversal BUT just under is 4111 as a decent final,

while i never would bet the farm on these reversals, the momentum is high and reversals appear to be short so proceed accordingly but with care, cause these banker peeps out there love to suck us in and stomp our brains into oatmeal mush, just for giggles

1946 ZULU -- oresent upside showing 4166 with 4143, 4151, 4154, 4158 showing resistance areas on the 15 min chart. 4136 shows on the 5 minute, meaning simply that we have more volitility and price activity on the 5 which will go down quickly compared to the 15 and then come back up to transfer to the 15 but which takes a longer time of course

0300 ZULU -- well, were heading back up to last nites top after a little fun with news today, so looking at 4240 with a possible 4266 -- i believe that should be it and then downward, but anything can and do happen in this game. --- anyway, 4240 is a SAFE top and so be it and for those guessing at a bottom, well by golly ----- its the PIVOT again at 41387 and the slightest chance of 41168 (if thats broken with momentum, then 4098 shows )


BLACK BOX PICKS --- add to above resistance points for a nice full menu and maybe riches galore.
UPSIDE ----------- be careful over 4260 and if broken well ----- 4275, 4298, 43088 AND possible 4319 WHICH IS SHOWING STRONGLY
DOWNSIDE ------- 4223 area

0440 ZULU -- conjecture only, but appears "they" are rushing to get to the top before london hits us and then will start to drop the pair --- it aint nothin but "gut" on this

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.27.2011

0506 ZULU ------ 4273 Is A Danger Point --- Must Be Broken Hard For The Rest To Be In Effect AND SHOULD BE A REVERSAL POINT TO 4241, 4235, 4226.

PRESENT UPSIDES ---- 4275, 4298, 43088 AND possible 4322 WHICH IS SHOWING STRONGLY

DOWNSIDE ---- 4238, 4228, 4221

 

[mp6140]

Mp -- 5.27.2011

1448 ZULU ---- hey peeps --- things going just as planned and while we are on a downside move right now, the actual trend is UP towards our targets, which seem to be rising as we go up --- who woulda thunk it ?

sending ya a pix of whats happening as of this moment so you can understand how we can be going up when the price is going down, which is very much the same as a lovely lady of my acquaintance who would repeatedly say "no" when in actuality she meant . . . . . . . . . oh well, we've all been there so no need to bore you with my history.

anyway, we are going down in an UPTREND and thats what she wrote -- yesterdays numbers still apply and will probably increase at some point.

enjoy my little pictures --- you to can be a forex whiz if you have a chart and a ruler, but unlike those crossword snobs who do the ny times puzzle in ink, use a pencil.

1642 ZULU -- still continuing up with present signs of notice at 4316 and as its after 1600 ZULU we "should" have some type of reversal before (or at) 1:30 edst to perhaps 4251 ---- price should continue up until everyone starts to grab profits for the weekend about an hour before the close.

previous info based on 15 minute chart and the 30 says 4318 with a "possible 4325

EXPECT tremendous volitility as the pros are working on 1/2 pip moves and are not gonna go where you want at the time you want it.

67 shows as downside on 5 min
4262 shows as downside on 15 min for reversal point and since momentum is high, we might consider 4259, 4254, 4252 and 4246 at the moment, but wait for each to break, retrace and then enter for the next lower support


if we had a chat, I might be able to be more timely, but hard to trade for the company AND talk to youse

1827 ZULU ---- 4288 next solid resistance