My trading journal

BZero

Private, 1st Class
Messages
56
Sure thing. After all, I have absolutely nothing to gain from lying about my performance.

Trade 14:
TP hit. +1.5R / +$291.08

Trade 15:
AUDCAD long
Entry: 0.89629
SL: 0.89329 (30 pips)
TP: 0.90079 (45 pips)

2022-015.png
 

BZero

Private, 1st Class
Messages
56
SL hit. - 1R/ -$210.25

You mean the backtest? Yeah, that looks promising. The equity curve from the actual live trading is flat so far, but at this trade frequency, I have to keep at it for at least three months before I can draw any kind of conclusion (I think at nearly 50 trades, we're getting close to a meaningful sample size). I'll still post a quick summary after we're completely done with January, though (I might open some trades on monday).
 
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BZero

Private, 1st Class
Messages
56
Trade 16:
AUDNZD short
Entry: 1.07467
SL: 1.07677 (21 pips)
TP: 1.07152 (31.5 pips)

2022-016.png
 

BZero

Private, 1st Class
Messages
56
Time for a quick summary of the first month, then. Honestly, quarterly updates would make a lot more sense than monthly updates with this trade frequency, but I guess I can post a screenshot of the "summary" sheet of my journal at the end of every month. I'll only consider making changes to my strategy at the end of every quarter. Anyway, here are the stats for January:

2201.png


For the alpha, I'm using the total return (i.e. dividend reinvestment included) of the S&P 500 as my benchmark. My alpha looks very good this month, but that's obviously because the S&P 500 had a very bad month. If I were to use an average for my benchmark, it would look very different, but I decided it makes more sense to always just compare with the actual month/quarter/year in question.

The 1.5:1 RRR is reduced to 1.42:1 due to friction costs.

MCL = Maximum consecutive losses
ELS = Expected losing streak calculated with my actual winrate at the moment
ELS 50% = Expected losing streak calculated with a winrate of 50% (roughly the winrate of my backtest)

As you can see, I've been very lucky with the distribution of wins and losses so far, so I expect a losing streak of 4 or 5 trades coming up very soon. When I eventually hit that losing streak, knowing beforehand that it was expected will hopefully be helpful psychologically.

The annualized ROI is calculated to be 24.55%, but as you can see, January ended on an equity peak and the sample size is still tiny, so things might be looking a little bit too good right now.

This spreadsheet is a work in progress. Feel free to suggest any other metrics that should be included.

I intended to include the sharpe ratio, since I know that's a very common metric to track, but then I realized that having a non-volatile equity curve is not really a goal for me. I'm already expecting long flat periods, and I think that if this strategy ends up having an edge over the broader market (i.e. positive alpha), that edge will have to come at the cost of higher risk/volatility.

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Trade 17:
CADCHF long
Entry: 0.72530
SL: 0.72110 (42 pips)
TP: 0.73160 (63 pips)

2022-017.png
 

BZero

Private, 1st Class
Messages
56
Trade 18:
EURGBP long
Entry: 0.82979
SL: 0.82799 (18 pips)
TP: 0.83249 (27 pips)

2022-018.png


Edit: TP hit +1.5R / +$302.18

That was fast. (Thank you, Lagarde.)
 
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BZero

Private, 1st Class
Messages
56
Trade 17:
CADCHF long
Entry: 0.72530
SL: 0.72110 (42 pips)
TP: 0.73160 (63 pips)

View attachment 73513

Closed this trade manually. Price entered into a range around my entry, and the trade idea didn't seem to be valid anymore. I still planned to leave the trade open over the weekend, but today it looked like it was starting to head towards my SL following the Canadian jobs report, so I finally decided it was time to take advantage of the rule I mentioned in the first post (I allow myself to close trades early for any reason).

-0.21R / -$41.58

The white line shows where I got out. I'll continue to monitor this trade to see if this was the right decision.

2022-017b.png
 
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