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NEW!!! Japan Yen Forex Pro Weekly, September 06-10, 2010

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Sep 5, 2010.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Attention. My analysis is based on JPY/USD, not on usual USD/JPY. It means that
    My chart is reverse to yours . My support is your resistance and so on.
    To receive numbers and levels in common formation, you need to use the formula:

    1/MY QUOTE*10000

    Example. My level of resistance 118.42
    Usual level of support= 1/118.42*10 000 = 84.44

    Monthly
    On monthly chart trend is bullish (your trend, guys is bearish rather). The higher the rate of Yen, the more probable becomes an intervention of BoJ. So, market move to the upside gradually. Market shows very good AB-CD pattern with target around 124.55 (your quote, guys will be 1/124.55*10000 = 80.28). Market has passed through 0.618 expansion, and move above it. The speed of AB and CD leg is the same, so this AB-CD move is very harmonic, that can lead to some resistance at 124.55 area. Also there is some divergence with MACD indicator, but you know my attitude to this signal. Also – 122.78 is a monthly overbought area that is precisely at the target of AB-CD pattern.
    Some of you, may be think about 3-drive sell pattern, but personally, I do not clarify this price action as 3-drive, because tops not match the conditions of 3-drive.
    [​IMG]

    Weekly
    On the #1 weekly chart you can see solid thrust up. Market action shows good separation from 3x3 DMA, and sufficient number of up candles, even after penetration of 3x3 in the beginning of the move. The next important moment is that market has reached 1.618% expansion of ABC-bottom pattern. So, we can count on some pull back. Particularly, I hint at possible momentum trade that potentially can lead to monthly target.
    [​IMG]

    On chart #2 we can see that trend is definitely bullish, and it will be bullish until 113.90 area. For the momentum trade it should be relatively deep penetration of 3x3, but not so deep as leading to trend shifting to bearish. So, there are 2 levels are suitable for this purpose. 115.87-116.17 – Fib support and monthly pivot support 1 and 115.08-115.43 – Confluence support area. The second area is preferable, and I suspect that it will be reached not during the next week, may be we need couple of weeks to reach it, if market intends to make a retracement at all…

    [​IMG]

    Daily
    Daily chart is very difficult to analyze right now. Looks like people continue to buy Yen, but with cautions and with aware of possible intervention. I do not see a big deal with identification trend, because it very choppy, and currently it bearish. The more important, to my mind, is a price action in the channel. The upper swings usually stop by weekly pivot resistance 1, and downward move – by support 1. So, for the next week weekly Pivot support 1 at 116.70 with Fib support around 116.83. The resistance 1 at 119.84. So, I can make a conclusion that currently market is suitable for intraday scalp trade only, because there are no signals on longer time frame. Personally, I prefer the downward brake of this channel and as level of support I like 115.08-115.18 Confluence support. Also this is a weekly pivot support 2.

    [​IMG]

    If market will show move to the upside – then there is a solid resistance just above the market – 120.43-120.71. It includes 1.618% expansion, 1.27 expansion from recent retracement, monthly pivot resistance 1 and 100% expansion from recent ABC-bottom pattern. So, if market will show upper breakout of the channel – then it probably will fail somewhere around this area.
    [​IMG]

    4- Hour
    I post this fragment of daily chart with more details, so that it will be clear for you. This can be a possible trading plan for Monday or Tuesday. You can see that 4-hour trend currently bearish, but market does not confirm it. First of all, we have to see the trend shifting to bullish. Just below the market is a strong support area – 117.91- 118.13 monthly pivot point and weekly pivot. If market will hold above this area and trend will shift up, then, probably we can take this trade with target at 120.50. But better way to enter – wait while the weekly pivot will be approved at US trading session on Tuesday, because Monday is a holiday.
    [​IMG]

    That’s being said, there is very contradictory price action in different time frames. From long term perspective, I think that market can reach 124.55 area. But currently we should expect a pullback. It can come during next week or may be on week after that. This pullback can start right at the beginning of the week or there short-term upper break out failure to 120.50 can precede it.
    The right way to act here is to track 4- hour trend. If it will turn bullish and Pivot area will hold – then we will reach 120.50 before the possible pullback to the down side. IF not – wait for daily channel breakout and sell the first retracement to the upside. The nearest target is 115.20 area. I think that we can even sell at 120.50, if there will be some signs of weakness.


    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies
     
  2. makun

    makun Recruit

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    Jpy/usd

    Thank you very much for the analysis. Sive, how do you come about this currency pair jpy/usd?
     
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Well, the point is that I trade futures mostly, not cash FOREX. And CME has not USD/JPY contract, it has only JPY/USD. That's why I have to use this pair. I do not have in CQG access to FOREX. ALthough it is possible to come to common USD/JPY with MT4 platform. It's more difficult to make analysis there, because it's not very comfortable as CQG.
     
  4. digital_soul

    digital_soul Private, 1st Class

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    Excellent!!!! So excited to have you Sive to do analysis on three pairs!

    FPA gets better and better. THANKS FELIX!
     
  5. hanan

    hanan Recruit

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    request

    hello sive
    did you do your trade live at profitmongers.com or not if not where you trade live and we can follow you when you trade
    thanks
     
    #5 hanan, Sep 5, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 5, 2010
  6. hanan

    hanan Recruit

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    please reply me

    dear sive
    did you trade live at profitmongers.com yes or no if no where you can trade live and we can follow you when you trading
    thanks
     
  7. fortunes

    fortunes Recruit

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    thanks

    Sive,
    thanks again for the extra pair, but not so easy to overview the images (or the importanty levels) quickly because of the inversion!
    Should it be possible to give us just the most important levels in usdjpy?
    Just asking but probably too much of an effort and you are already short of time!
    Thanks anyway, we 'll try to inverse it ourselves,
    Denis
    Belgium
     
  8. Slim Trady

    Slim Trady Private

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    Hello Sive

    Thanks for taking the trouble to post your analysis of these new pairs.

    On USD/JPY (JPY/USD in your case) your analysis is interesting but I cant help thinking that technical analysis on this pair is fraught with danger because of the levels that we are trading at.

    I firmly believe that the USD/JPY is unjustifiably oversold given the market conditions (and the state of the Japanese economy) and when you factor in possible BOJ intervention, all the technical analysis in the world is going to go right out of the window in the event of unexpected good news out of the States.

    Personally I went long USD/JPY when the price fell under 84 with a long stop because in 3 months time when the USD/JPY is 90+ every serious trader on the planet will be wondering why they didn't buy the USD at 83 (just as they they wondered why they didn't sell the GBP when it crossed 2 and the EUR 1.60)

    Do you think this is a fair point that technical analysis (in other words, what is technically expected) can break down when currencies are trading at 15 year high/lows?
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Slim Trady,
    Well, First of all, it's very good that you have your own opinion. It's important.
    This is, in fact, your homework - read the analysis and decide - what will you take and what will not. You have a logic in your reasoning, but take a note, that
    My analysis is a short-term. And, the 4-hour context can be worked out during the day.
    Second, everybody knows about facts, that you've mentioned. But Yen go further. Do you find it curious?

    Anyway, guys. You make a decisions when you're trading, and it's up to you. I just give you technical picture of my expectations and possible scenarions.
     
  10. dee50

    dee50 Recruit

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    Thanks Sive. At last someone talks about the JPY/USD, I trade the currency futures, 6J, so to follow the signals I have to remember to reverse everything, at last some guidance my way round. I have followed you for some time now on EUR/USD, great analysis, much of what you say is gobbledygook to me (technicals) but I get the jist.
     

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