New trade call (& Analysis)

tangmase

Corporal
Messages
113
hi jarratt,

i agree with gfurman, pls. be a bit more specific with your trading details and let us know in asap when u enter into a trade.

kund regards

:rolleyes:
 

Kennedy Assante

Recruit
Messages
7
Hi Jarratt, thank you so much that we can participate on your trades. I really appreciate that, and im glad to have the Privileg to read your Comments.
Cheers, Kennedy
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Everyone,

Profit taken on the USD/JPY trade. I actually ended up taking it off at just above my initial target of 102.00 ... At 102.34, so a nice healthy profit to start the week!

I will be back in the next day or two to give another possible trade call :)

Just a quick note about these calls:

I try my best to give as much notice as possible, but the nature of how they are delivered (Forum post then an email) means that there is often a 20 minute delay at least between the time I take a trade and the time I post it here. So apologies for that, but If you look back, generally there is enough time to make a profit from them.

Thanks!
 
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redrag

Private, 1st Class
Messages
51
Hi Guy,

I do not use fixed Stop losses, instead I trade with zero leverage .... Which means that I can sustain hundreds of pips DD and only lose a few % of my account. Trading this way gives me a much more consistent gains, with fewer losses.

It also allows me to get back into the market when the price moves against me, for a better price.

The most important thing is that the fundamentals agree with the trade and sentiment is with me. As soon as that changes I exit the trade and take my losses etc...

As for technical analysis, I do not really use that so much.... My main focus is on the overall bias, combined with Support and resistance levels.

Hope this helps, but if you need any further help, please do not hesitate to let me know :)

Thanks guy
Hi Jarratt

I find your input extremely valuable and educational. Your trade management strategy also provides me with significant food for thought.

My biggest challenge (and, I suspect, many others) is not when to enter a trade, it's when to exit. That is the main difference between winners and losers. You are clearly a winner which is why I was so interested to read your exit strategy. I can interpret fundamentals and technicals but I don't know how to keep abreast of current sentiment. By the time I realise that sentiment has changed it is often too late.

How do you judge market sentiment and, more importantly, how can I judge changes in sentiment working from home?

Many thanks for your support.
 
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Marketjoy Trader

Private, 1st Class
Messages
81
Thanks Jarrat for your analysis.
My question is given the fact that you trade with zero leverage, does it mean that you have only one open position at a time? And if not, what is your maximum open position.

BTW your book is very instructive, in fact an eye opener. But why was the page numbering omitted?
Thanks and regards
Hi Guy,

I do not use fixed Stop losses, instead I trade with zero leverage .... Which means that I can sustain hundreds of pips DD and only lose a few % of my account. Trading this way gives me a much more consistent gains, with fewer losses.

It also allows me to get back into the market when the price moves against me, for a better price.

The most important thing is that the fundamentals agree with the trade and sentiment is with me. As soon as that changes I exit the trade and take my losses etc...

As for technical analysis, I do not really use that so much.... My main focus is on the overall bias, combined with Support and resistance levels.

Hope this helps, but if you need any further help, please do not hesitate to let me know :)

Thanks guy
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Redrag,

As you say exits are probably the toughest thing in trading. In a way I do not really pay massive attention to where I get into the market because it doesn't matter that much as long as I know its going to move one way or the other.

With exits on the other hand all I look for is two things:

1, Sentiment ... To stay on top of this just keep up to date with the news .... You know you are up to date when you can pretty much determine the cause of most moves that are taking place on the currencies. For example, if you are long USD/JPY because of the fundamentals, and all of a sudden the pair drops 50 pips, you should know why that is happening. Generally it will be for some one off event, like profit taking, or a single poor economic figure from the US or anything along those lines. The point is that it doesn't change the overall outlook, and the reasons you entered in the first place are still valid. So you hold the trade.

In that example, you would exit the trade if those fundamentals changed, for example if Japan suddenly announced that they were stopping QE, and the US then announced that they were doubling their own QE .... This would cause a massive shift in sentiment, making the long trade a bad bet.

If you do not know why most moves are happening (Even if it is just profit taking or a relief rally) then you do not have enough information to be confident in your trade. If you are not confident in your trade, you will make errors and get spooked out of positions for a loss, when you should be holding or even adding to those positions. This cycle will result in your account getting chipped away by those constant losses. (Which is actually what happens to most new traders)

2, Technical analysis

I do not use TA a huge amount, but I am extremely familiar with price action. If I am scalping or day trading I will use technicals much more, but mostly i prefer to take longer term positions simply because it is much less stressful.

My targets are determined based on how far I think the price will move, in relation to its daily range, and also key areas of support and resistance that it may have struggled at in the past .... I also love '00' levels! This type of analysis is simply subjection, based on experience.

You will get better and better at this by just being aware of how the pair moves and watching it day in day out.

All of this can be done from home using the news wires that are offered to FX traders, and basic charting software :)

Hope this helps Redrag, and if you need anything else please just let me know!

J
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Ayoayo,

I will very often enter multiple positions on a pair.... And using zero leverage allows this with very little risk.

For example if I enter USD/JPY long at 1.0200 .... and it then falls to 101.00 i will reenter the market long, whilst holding my first position .... My average price is now 101.50 and my leverage is still only 2:1.

This gives me a very consistent win / loss ratio and keeps the equity curve pointing up. I do ofcourse take a loss, but only when I have lost confidence in the trade.

I never like to hold more than 3 positions on a pair .... With 2 trades being ideal.

Hope this helps!

Regarding my book page numbers, I really am not sure about the layout decisions, as this was carried out by a small team of editors that helped me complete it.

Glad you enjoyed it though :)

Thanks again!

J
 
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redrag

Private, 1st Class
Messages
51
Hi Redrag,

As you say exits are probably the toughest thing in trading. In a way I do not really pay massive attention to where I get into the market because it doesn't matter that much as long as I know its going to move one way or the other.

With exits on the other hand all I look for is two things:

1, Sentiment ... To stay on top of this just keep up to date with the news .... You know you are up to date when you can pretty much determine the cause of most moves that are taking place on the currencies. For example, if you are long USD/JPY because of the fundamentals, and all of a sudden the pair drops 50 pips, you should know why that is happening. Generally it will be for some one off event, like profit taking, or a single poor economic figure from the US or anything along those lines. The point is that it doesn't change the overall outlook, and the reasons you entered in the first place are still valid. So you hold the trade.

In that example, you would exit the trade if those fundamentals changed, for example if Japan suddenly announced that they were stopping QE, and the US then announced that they were doubling their own QE .... This would cause a massive shift in sentiment, making the long trade a bad bet.

If you do not know why most moves are happening (Even if it is just profit taking or a relief rally) then you do not have enough information to be confident in your trade. If you are not confident in your trade, you will make errors and get spooked out of positions for a loss, when you should be holding or even adding to those positions. This cycle will result in your account getting chipped away by those constant losses. (Which is actually what happens to most new traders)

2, Technical analysis

I do not use TA a huge amount, but I am extremely familiar with price action. If I am scalping or day trading I will use technicals much more, but mostly i prefer to take longer term positions simply because it is much less stressful.

My targets are determined based on how far I think the price will move, in relation to its daily range, and also key areas of support and resistance that it may have struggled at in the past .... I also love '00' levels! This type of analysis is simply subjection, based on experience.

You will get better and better at this by just being aware of how the pair moves and watching it day in day out.

All of this can be done from home using the news wires that are offered to FX traders, and basic charting software :)

Hope this helps Redrag, and if you need anything else please just let me know!

J
Hi Jarratt

And thank you for such a comprehensive response. You have given examples of events that would change sentiment and those that probably wouldn't - which is most helpful.

Thanks again.
 
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