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Stan NordFX

NordFX Representative
Messages
187
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 25 – 29, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Recall that the previous forecast focused on the uncertainty that has been reigning in the markets recently. At that time, the preponderance of the bulls' supporters over the bears was only 10%. 55% of experts voted for the growth of the European currency, against were 45%. As if responding to such a balance of forces, the pair grew slightly on Monday, November 11 and, reaching the level of 1.0900, moved into a sideways trend. It stayed there until Friday, when, due to weak European statistics (PMI) and the speech of the new Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, it went down sharply. However, it could not break through the support of 1.1000 and ended the five-day period at 1.1020.
Ms. Lagarde added more fog and uncertainty to the markets, saying that Europe needed a new system of economic measures and that the European regulator would soon review its strategy. But what this new strategy will be is completely unclear, especially recalling that there is discord in the ECB Governing Council and there is no consensus on the resumption of quantitative easing (QE);

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections, on which both the situation with Brexit and the further economic situation in the country depend. There is no clarity for now, as in the case of the Euro. Therefore, both bulls and bears are looking for reasons to push the pair in one or another direction, in the economic news.
If we sum up the results of the past week, the victory has remained for the bears. Taking advantage of the fact that the preliminary PMI business activity index in the services sector fell below the critical level of 50.0 and amounted to 48.6, they pushed the pair down to the level of 1.2822. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 1.2835;

- USD/JPY. As already noted, the yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair has been moving up, relying on the MA200 on the four-hour timeframe. At least four attempts to break through this support have ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end, we wrote last week, depends largely on the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the US and China. However, despite a lot of optimistic statements, there are no specific results yet. American negotiators seem to be ready for the meeting but are waiting for assurances from the Chinese side that Beijing is ready to commit to the protection of intellectual property and technology, as well as the purchase of agricultural products from the United States. Whether China will do it, and in what form, is a question. And so the fifth attempt to break through the МА200 undertaken in the middle of last week, failed as well. Having fallen to the level of 108.27, the pair turned around and finished the week session slightly above the specified moving average, at the level of 108.63;

– cryptocurrencies. The main "forecast", which most often sounds recently, can be reduced to only two words: "caution" and "pessimism". We hope that traders and investors followed our first advice, because the second one has once again justified itself completely: at the low on Friday November 22, Bitcoin lost almost 20%, falling from $8,500 to $6,820. The reason for such a bearish rally, according to many experts, were miners who began an active sale of their crypto assets. Some of them needed fiat to stay afloat and continue to work, and some, disappointed, just decided to leave the market.
An additional impetus to the sales was given by rumors from Chinese Shanghai about the visit of the police to the office of the Binance crypto exchange.
Top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), amicably followed the "big brother", Bitcoin. As a result, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 15.8%, from $239 billion to $201 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen again. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter is still not even up to 0.5%. All this makes investors think about the onset of a recession in the American economy. Next week we are waiting for the next batch of macroeconomic indicators from the United States, which will either confirm or refute the version about the possible next reduction of the Federal Reserve interest rate in January-February. Moreover, such a reduction may not be "traditional" 0.25%, but twice as much, 0.5%.
Of course, this largely depends on the final results of the fourth quarter and 2019 as a whole. But do not forget that 2020 is the year of the US Presidential election, and the state of the American economy depends on whether Trump will remain in the White House for a second term. For now, under his pressure, the Fed is implementing easing policies step by step and pumping the economy with dollars. A similar situation was in the early 2000s. Then, by lowering the rates, the Fed tried to raise production, and it resulted in a bubble of mortgage lending, which burst, leading to the crisis of 2007-2008.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored red. But in the situation of uncertainty described above, experts do not expect that the pair will still be able to break through the support of 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 also indicates that after one or two unsuccessful attempts to do this, the pair will turn around and go up: first to the resistance of 1.1090, and then even higher, up to the horizon of 1.1175.
Of course, the results of the next round of the US-Chinese trade talks, which Beijing wants to hold before November 28, Thanksgiving In the US, can greatly affect the quotes. 65% of analysts expect that a certain consensus will be reached on this issue by the end of the year, which will lead to the growth of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900;

- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12 and a Brexit respite, the pair has been moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980 for the fifth week. Trend indicators and D1 oscillators are painted in neutral gray. The forecasts of experts can be called "gray" too (50% to 50%). The hearing of the Inflation Report on Wednesday November 27 is unlikely to push the pair beyond this channel. The situation in the coming week depends much more on the US than on the UK. And the clear progress in the US-China trade talks may give the pair a strong bearish impulse, lowering it to the support of 1.2650;

- USD/JPY. The Fed is pumping the markets with dollar liquidity. But the Bank of Japan has been doing the same for many years in an effort to increase inflation and revive production. At the same time, the interest rate set by the Japanese regulator for the yen is much lower than for the dollar. So the Japanese currency is of interest to investors only as a refuge from financial storms. However, according to the chart, there have been no particularly strong storms since the end of the summer, and therefore the yen is falling, and the curve of quotations is steadily creeping up.
Now there is a consolidation in the zone of 108.60 yen per dollar. But progress in signing a trade agreement between the US and China may push the pair further up ¬ – to the level of 109.50. It is this movement that most experts (65%) expect from it in the near future.
It should be noted that in the medium term, even more analysts (70%) are waiting for the pair to turn south and return to the 105.70-106.70 zone. And at most, these expectations are related to the deterioration of US economic indicators and further quantitative easing by the Fed;

– cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing this forecast, the BTC/USD pair is approximately where it was a month ago, before the "space" takeoff on October 25. Recall that the benchmark cryptocurrency reached $10,500 then, adding 40% at its highest point, due to the news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had supported the blockchain development.
If you look at the chart, it is very clear that, since June 26, Bitcoin has been moving in a downward channel. And if this movement continues, we can expect first a sideways movement along the horizon of $7,300, and then another collapse, now down to $5,000.
The main hope of investors which may be able to support the bitcoin exchange rate is the 2020 halving. According to some of them, after halving in 2020, the rate of this cryptocurrency can soar by 4000%. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%.
At the moment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index of bitcoin has fallen into the lower red quarter and is equal to 23, which corresponds to "extreme fear". According to the creators of the index, this indicator can mean that the market is in a strong panic, and it is probable that the growth will begin soon. After all, large speculators who bought coins, playing for a decrease to earn, must at some point start the game to increase. This, in fact, is the logic of the market.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX

NordFX Representative
Messages
187
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 02 - 06, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. it looks like the thanksgiving celebration in the US started not in Thursday 28 November, but as early as on Monday 25. The last week of autumn was unusually calm, and the volatility did not exceed 40 points until Friday, driving traders into hibernation. Positive data on GDP and production in the US were balanced by the growth of the consumer price index (CPI) in the Eurozone. And even the controversial law on support for democracy and human rights in Hong Kong, signed by President Trump on Thursday, coupled with a sharp reaction to it from Beijing, made little impression on the markets.
Recall that our previous forecast said that in the current situation, the pair will not be able to break through the support of 1.1000 and after one or two unsuccessful attempts, it will turn around and go up. That's exactly what happened. Even the breakthrough at the end of the week to the level of 1.0980 was unsuccessful, and the pair soon returned to where it started the five-day period, to the zone of 1.1015-1.1020;

- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK, since the last decade of October, the pair is moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980. Thanksgiving in the United States only narrowed this channel to the interval 1.2825-1.2950, and the final chord of the week sounded at 1.2935;

- USD/JPY. The majority of experts (65%) expect that the pair will reach the height of 109.50 within the week. This forecast was justified by 100%. And even China's threats against the United States because of support for protesters in Hong Kong did not prevent the growth of the dollar. Threats remain threats, but the trade agreement must be signed. As a result, the pair rose to the level of 109.66 by Friday evening, and ended the trading session at the level of 109.44;

– cryptocurrencies. This is the market that, unlike Forex, never sleeps. And first a few words about the news background, statements and actions of financial mega-regulators. So representatives of the European Central Bank did not rule out the release of their own tokens. Even ECB Board Member Benoit Coeure, who previously called bitcoin "an evil creation of the financial crisis of 2008", supported the idea of "crypto-Euro" . South Korea went as far as to recognize cryptocurrencies, adopting a bill to regulate virtual assets. But the Central Bank of Russia has once again shown its negative attitude to alternative financial products, agreeing with the proposal to ban all payments with bitcoin and other coins.
But, of course, the strongest impact on the market this fall was the news from China. Recall that the regulator of Shanghai has recently decided to liquidate companies engaged in cryptocurrency trading, and the regulator of Beijing declared the illegality of exchange operations with cryptocurrencies. The mega-regulator, the people's Bank of China, announced its position on Friday, November 22, ordering all companies to eliminate any improper practices of working with crypto assets. Representatives of such an influential force as the Communist Party of China also support a complete ban on digital currencies. As a result, investments in bitcoin in China decreased by more than 15% at the end of November.
In general the cryptocurrency market has "shrunk" by more than $20 billion over the past week, which is almost 10% of its volume. But, despite this, the week, in general, can be called successful for bitcoin. Having found a six-month bottom at $6,585 on Monday, November 25, the benchmark cryptocurrency bounced back up, resting on a strong level of $7,800. In the period from September 26 to October 22, it made a strong support for the BTC/USD pair. And now there are a lot of chances to turn into an equally strong resistance.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". However, if compared to Friday, November 22, Bitcoin grew by about 5%, altcoins were only able to win back losses, returning to their original positions.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We would like to hope that with the onset of winter, both bears and bulls will not finally go into hibernation. Moreover, these days we are waiting for a number of quite important events. This is the speech of the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde and the publication of the US business activity data (ISM) in the first half of the week, Eurozone GDP data on Thursday, and the US labor market (including NFP) on Friday.
According to forecasts, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), can grow in the US by more than 40% (from 128K to 183K). Which may still lead to a breakdown of support 1.1000. At the moment, 65% of experts agree that the pair will be able to fall to the 1.0880-1.0925 zone, supported by 95% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. There is another support on the way of the pair to the south: 1.0940.
The opposite view is shared by only 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. In their opinion, the pair will go north starting from the support of 1.0980-1.1000. The targets are 1.1100 and 1.1175;

- GBP/USD. The results of the parliamentary elections, and, accordingly, the future of Brexit, will be known only in a week and a half, after December 12. For now, investors are focused on the statements of politicians and, for a small part, on the macroeconomic indicators of the UK, the EU and the US. From above, the pound is pressured by the decline in the yield of 10-year UK government bonds in relation to similar securities of its "competitors". From below, due to the correlation of the British currency with "black gold", it is pushed up by an upward trend in the oil market. And here it should be borne in mind that the OPEC+ summit next week may well extend the limit on carbon production, which will lead to a shortage of oil and an increase in its cost, especially in the III and IV quarters of 2020. In general, in everything that concerns the pound, there is a complete uncertainty so far.
Experts' forecasts look similar: 40% are for the growth of this currency, 40% are for its fall, and 20% just shrug. So, we can assume that the GBP/USD pair will continue to move in a sideways channel until the parliamentary elections, consolidating in the Pivot Point zone of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. Most investors considered the differences between the US and China concerning human rights in Hong Kong unimportant. In their opinion, a trade deal will sooner or later be concluded, which will lead to a rise in the dollar, including the rise against the yen. The growth of the US stock market and the SP500 index, according to 85% of experts, will push the USD/JPY pair up to the landmark level of 110.00 already now (taking into account the slippage-110.25). However, the pair can then turn to the south and return first to the intersection of the horizontal support and the lower border of the ascending channel around 109.00. And then go down and even lower: the next support levels are 108.50 and 107.80. This scenario is fully supported by graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators on D1, according to which the pair is already in the overbought zone;

– cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is still within the downward channel, which began on June 26. Some experts call the rebound that occurred last week a "dead cat jump", believing that we will soon see another collapse of the BTC/USD pair, now to the level of $5,000. However, according to most analysts, the pair will stay within the side corridor of $7,000-8,000 for some time.
About 40% of experts remain optimistic and hopeful that the upper limit of this corridor will be broken. At the same time, for example, the famous financial analyst Joseph Young, although confident in the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency market, does not exclude the fall of Bitcoin to $3000-4000. Martin McDonagh, co-founder of investment firm KR1, has expressed a similar opinion. "Now, swinging like a pendulum, the market tries to know where the bottom is once again", he says. "I think we are in the early stages of a bull market and we will soon see rising highs on the way to new heights," he predicts.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Stan NordFX

NordFX Representative
Messages
187
Philippine Traders Prefer NordFX


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#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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Stan NordFX

NordFX Representative
Messages
187
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 09 - 13, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Euro rose sharply on Monday. This is not to say that no one expected it. 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 predicted the pair's rise to the height of 1.1100. Some may have decided that the growth is associated with the performance of the new head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. But it is unlikely that this version is correct, since the words of this high-ranking official for the most part did not concern the prospects of monetary policy but were devoted to the prospects of the emergence of the crypto-Euro. Although, the jet of fresh air in the work of the mega-regulator could for sure contribute to the strengthening of the European currency.
The publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the European Union, which showed a small increase, also added to the positive mood. But as for macroeconomic statistics from the United States, it did not make investors happy: ISM business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the services sector showed a decrease. As a result, at its high, the Euro rose to 1.1116.
The end of the week was without surprises. As expected, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in the US outside of agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), increased by more than 70%. And the markets immediately reacted by strengthening the dollar by 60 points. Then there was a slight rebound up, and the pair froze at 1.1060;

- GBP/USD. It would seem that everything was supposed to freeze in anticipation of the parliamentary elections scheduled for Thursday, December 12. After all, the future of Brexit and the UK in general depend on them. But the British currency was climbing steadily all week, buoyed by predictions of an election outcome, weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the progress of the OPEC + summit. The British currency is strongly correlated with the "black gold", and the decision of oil-producing countries to remove from the market, starting from January 01, 1.7 million barrels per day, also supported the pound. The GBP/USD pair put the final chord of the week at 1.3132, adding more than 215 points in five days;

- USD/JPY. According to the previous week's scenario, the pair should have turned south, reaching the height of 110.00. However, it did it, remaining some 25 points away from this landmark point. And then everything happened exactly according to the forecast: a fall to the support of 109.00, then a pause, and a decline to the next support in the zone of 108.50. Not far from it, at the level of 108.55, the pair met the end of the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. Twitter brought an unexpected piece of news. Rather, it was brought by the CEO of this social network Jack Dorsey, who said that the future of the cryptocurrency industry will be determined by... Africa. Why? Just because Africa... is very poor, and this will be one of the main reasons for the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by the countries of this continent.
There may be some logic to this, but for now, what happens in the digital market is determined by the US, Europe and China. Last week, Europe distinguished itself. It turned out that the European mega-regulator is actively exploring the possibility of launching an official digital Euro. "Our goal," said the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde at a hearing in the European Parliament, " is to create an innovative, reliable and integrated payment system in Europe. This will benefit everyone in the Euro area and significantly strengthen the Euro's position in the world." But then she added that it is necessary to assess all risks from such a step and weigh all the "pros" and "cons" very carefully.
As for the forecast for the past week, it was absolutely correct on the whole. Recall that, according to most analysts, the pair BTC/USD was in for a sideways trend in the range of $7,000-8,000. At the same time, 40% of experts did not rule out attempts to break the upper limit of this channel.
In reality, everything happened like that. Starting near its upper limit, the pair went down to the level of $7,095. Then, there was a sharp upswing on Wednesday 04 December, but the efforts of the bulls were only enough to lift Bitcoin to the horizon of $7,865. This was followed by a sharp reversal, a fall to $7,110, and then a return to the central zone of the channel, accompanied by a decrease in volatility to the range of $7,330-7,465.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". And despite the fact that they were in the green zone at the end of the working week, the result of seven days can be characterized as moderately negative. Thus, Ripple lost about 3.5% in price, Ethereum lost 5%, and the cost of Litecoin decreased by 9%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The USA and Europe expect three important events during the coming week, these are: the decision on interest rates by the Fed on Wednesday 11 December and the ECB on Thursday 12 December, as well as the scheduled elections to the UK Parliament on Thursday. And if the Fed and the ECB are likely to leave rates at the same level for now, some surprises can be expected from the elections in the United Kingdom. The results of the exit polls will be known late on Thursday, Central European time, and the final results of the elections will be known on Friday the 13th. Then we should expect a strong reaction of the markets.
Despite the fact that Friday the 13th enjoys a bad reputation among superstitious people, the forecasts of experts are not so pessimistic. 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1100, and in case the opponents of a hard Brexit win the elections in the UK, the pair can easily reach the height of 1.1175.
As for the forecasts until the end of December, most analysts believe that the pair will move along the Pivot Point 1.1000, making fluctuations in the range 1.0900-1.1100;

- GBP/USD. As mentioned above, the near future of the pound will be decided on December 12. In the meantime, the experts can only shrug. For those who prefer charts and candlestick patterns to fundamental analysis, let's say that the graphical analysis on D1 draws the pair's growth first to the resistance zone of 1.3175, then to 1.3370, and the New Year at the height of 1.3500. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of D1 oscillators support this forecast. The remaining 15% signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates a possible reversal of the trend down;

- USD/JPY. The pair is now within a strong support/resistance zone, clearly visible since April 2017. We can also talk about the sideway with the support at 108.25, which has started this fall.
Most experts (65%) believe that, despite all efforts, the pair will not be able to break through this support in the near future and therefore will move within the side corridor, which started last October. In their opinion, if we see weak enough macroeconomic indicators in Europe and Latin America, investors' attraction to the dollar as a safe-haven currency will increase. And given the difference in interest rates, the dollar will become much more attractive than the yen, which will move the pair up. The nearest resistance is 109.00, the next is 109.30, the target is 109.75.
Of course, the quotes of this pair can also be influenced by the course of the US-Chinese trade negotiations, and the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. Therefore, a bearish scenario is not excluded, according to which the pair will rush to the minimum on October 03, 106.50. Intermediate supports are in the 107.90, 107.50 and 107.00 zones. 35% of analysts vote for this development, as well as 70% of indicators on D1;

– cryptocurrencies. The most important event of the coming week should be the launch of bitcoin settlement futures on the Bakkt platform on December 09. And it is not for sure that this will help Bitcoin. There is an opinion that this platform is a" hand" of the US Government, able to strangle the crypto market at the right time or, conversely, give it a breath. This version is confirmed by the fact that Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler is already sitting in Washington as a Senator from Georgia.
The pressure of regulators on the digital market and the desire to take it under control does not contribute to the growth of quotations of cryptocurrencies. And the threat of instant large losses simply scares away large investors. According to Bloomberg, this led to the closure of 70 cryptocurrency hedge funds in 2019. The number of newly created crypto-funds has also decreased twice compared to the previous year. So, the predictions of bitcoin apologists that this cryptocurrency will rise again to heights in the region of $20,000 by the end of the year are unlikely to come true.
However, according to Ceteris Paribus experts, almost 600 thousand BTC coins (worth about $5 billion) remain without movement over the past year and a half. This speaks to the hopes of private investors for the rise of Bitcoin. The reason for this may be Halving-2020. According to some "crypto gurus", the Bitcoin rate can jump by 4000% as a result of this halving. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%. However, what happened to the Litecoin, halving of which took place at the end of the summer of 2019, shows that such rosy expectations may be in vain. The LTC quotes indeed began to grow on the eve of this event, but nothing happened on the halving day, and then the LTC/USD pair simply fell down.
Returning to Bitcoin, let's say that the forecasts of most experts for December do not portend the BTC/USD pair anything good. 65% of them see it in the $6,000-6,600 zone. However, once again, a lot depends on how the opening trades on Bakkt are going on. For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/
 
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