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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 28 March - 1 April 2016


First, an overview of last week’s forecast:

- regarding EUR/USD, those 40% of the experts that predicted a fall were right. The forecast of graphical analysis on H4 also turned out correct, indicating that last week’s bottom would be around 1.1130. On Thursday, the pair almost reached this level, stopping at 1.1143;

- the forecasts about GBP/USD’s sharp drop panned out 100%. The pair paused briefly at the lower boundary of the sideways channel – at 1.4360, broke through it and plunged to support at 1.4230. Then, trying to reach last February’s lows, it went even further down to 1.4080;

- the analysts and graphical analysis claimed that USD/JPY had reached its bottom and therefore should bounce upwards to 113.00, which happened. The pair wrapped up the week at 113.03;

- the USD/CHF pair was predicted to rise to 0.9850. The pair was just short of it when it got to 0.9786 on Friday. Thus, this forecast can be considered as fulfilled at least by 90%.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:

- this week will be filled with releases of various important economic data. Perhaps, that is why there is no consensus among the experts regarding EUR/USD. Thus, 55% of them insist on the pair’s rise and transition to 1.1340-1.1470. The rest of the analysts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4, on the other hand, point to a possible fall to 1.1055. In this case, there may be a slight rise to resistance at 1.1220 before the fall;

- according to the analysts, the prospects for GBP/USD seem quite ambiguous – 40% of the analysts are for a rise, about the same number are for a drop and 20% predict a sideways trend. However, the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 clearly point down. With this, GBP/USD may go up slightly to 1.4170-1.4240, then it should move downwards – first to support at 1.4070, then to 1.3970 and further down to last February’s lows around 1.3850;

- the experts’ opinions about USD/JPY are split almost equally. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show a sideways channel with two scenarios for the boundaries – fluctuations around 112.30-113.50 on H4 and around 110.70-114.00 on D1 with gradual consolidation near support. In the longer term, both graphical analysis and 70% of the experts point to USD/JPY’s subsequent sharp rebound from the lower boundary up to 117.00, which may happen in the second half of April;

- there is nothing new for USD/CHF – 65% of the experts, graphical analysis and 70% of the indicators on H4 predict a rise first to resistance at 0.9880 and then further to 1.0100. Support is still at 0.9650 like last week.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 4-8 April 2016


Overview of last week’s predictions:

- in the previous forecast, 55% of the experts insisted that EUR/USD should rise and transition into 1.1340-1.1470, and they were right. On Friday, the pair went up to 1.1438, bounced down to support at 1.1335 and stopped almost in the middle of this range – at 1.1392;

- all of March GBP/USD performed large-scale fluctuations, which perplexed many analysts. Last week, the pair acted in a similar way – first, it rose by 340 points and then dropped by 290 points;

- technical analysis on H4 pointed to USD/JPY moving within a 112.30-113.50 range while D1 showed a wider range of 110.70-114.00 with gradual consolidation around support. The pair completed the week right in-between – it bounced off resistance at 113.80, moved down and stopped at 111.60;

- USD/CHF moved in an unexpected manner. Instead of a rise, it broke through support at 0.9650 and fell by another 60 points, ending the week at 0.9587.


Upcoming Week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- according to 70% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1, the EUR/USD pair is predicted to rise at least to 1.1500. At the same time, half of these experts and graphical analysis reckon that the pair can aim even higher at 1.1700, with strong support of 1.1400. Conversely, the remaining 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 consider 1.1400 as strong resistance from which the pair should drop sharply to support at 1.1165. The beginning of the week will make it clear which scenario will play out;

- the indicators and graphical analysis predict a fall for GBP/USD. However, only 40% of the experts agree with this while the rest of them are on the other side of the fence. Nonetheless, all of them believe that the amplitude of the pair's fluctuations will remain within the boundaries of past three weeks. In the longer term, technical analysis and more than half of the experts still expect the pair to fall to last February’s lows around 1.3850;

- the forecast of graphical analysis on D1 for USD/JPY stays unchanged – first, fluctuations within the 110.70-114.00 range with gradual consolidation near support and then a sharp bounce from the lower boundary up to 117.00. This is supported by 100% of the indicators and 65% of the experts who also warn that the upswing may not happen before the second half of April or early May;

- about 40% of the experts, together with the indicators, believe that USD/CHF hasn’t completed its fall yet and the bottom is last October’s lows around 1.9485. The remaining 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 are sure that it's time for the pair to go up – first to 0.9740 and then further to resistance at 0.9880. Support is 0.9570.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Top 10 of MQL5 Trading Signals for March 2016

Overview by NordFX Expert


The MQL5 Signals service integrated into the MetaTrader platform is becoming more and more popular as it allows even amateurish investors to collect profits by automatically copying experienced traders’ signals. It takes just a few clicks to subscribe to one or more such signals. On its face, it looks as easy as it can get. However, practice shows that in pursuit of grand profits, subscribers rather often fail to assess risks correctly. To help to avoid such mistakes, we regularly publish ratings of the most sought-after signals, complementing them with comments by a professional – NordFX leading analyst John Gordon.

The top 10 of the most popular signal providers for March 2016 is presented below.

I. Green Line Signals (increase 668%, 296 subscribers),

II. Pound Aussie Real (increase 855%, 274 subscribers),

III. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (increase 49%, 225 subscribers),

IV. Magic profits (increase 14133%, 180 subscribers),

V. Q2FX (increase 1300%, 126 subscribers),

IV. Geylani (increase 81%, 112 subscribers),

VII. LidziyaForex (increase 113%, 89 subscribers),

VIII. George Soros (increase 1986%, 76 subscribers),

IX. HnGcg (increase 58%, 75 subscribers),

X. Night Hunter (increase 313%, 73 subscribers).

Six of the current leading signal providers were in the February top 10 as well. They are:

- Green Line Signals jumped from the 5th place to number one;

- Pound Aussie Real went up to the 2nd place from the 4th in February;

- MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 kept its 3rd position;

- Magic profits swapped the 8th place for the 4th in March.

Two signals, on the contrary, lost positions – LidziyaForex forfeited the top place and dropped to the 7th while HnGcg moved to the 9th place from the 6th.

“I’ll begin the overview with two signals from the March and February top lists, – says the NordFX leading analyst. – Last month, I was surprised by LidziyaForex’s popularity among the subscribers who had invested over a million dollars in it. I also urged to evaluate all risks before signing up for this signal provider.

The fact is that this signal has been around only since last December and its maximum drawdown is as much as 57%. Analysis of the trades has shown that most often the provider simply waits for a losing position to become winning and locks in losses only in an emergency.

Unfortunately, my worst fears got confirmed in March – a 45% loss is a serious financial blow for the subscribers. Those who signed up early are actually lucky as they are still sitting on profits while those who subscribed over the last few weeks lost almost half of their investments. As a result, three quarters of the subscribers unfollowed LidziyaForex. Moreover, the signal provider seems to have thrown in the towel too by announcing that as of 1 May, the signal would cease to exist.

With this, I have a déjà vu feeling about March’s new leader Green Line Signals – it reminds me of LidziyaForex that much. Consider: the signal is just 12 weeks old, its maximum drawdown is 53%, and such close calls happened twice over three months. On the signal provider’s website, the figure is an even more alarming 63%.

Nevertheless, subscriber feedback about this signal is mostly positive, which can be explained by impressive growth – about 700% in three months. Still, it’s not all that great as it may sound: +220% in January, +96% in February and slightly more than 25% in March. It’s called the reverse martingale, a strategy when the trader boldly builds up the initial deposit amount but then starts reducing risks gradually, so profits drop too consequently. Time will tell whether I’m right in this case.

In terms of stable profits, it’s worth mentioning the signal Magic profits. It’s about 3.5 years old, and it’s some assurance of reliability. The ratio of winning and losing months is 40 to 1, average growth is 10-20% a month, and the only loss was under 10%. Hence, such a remarkable result. Subscribers don’t need to be concerned by quite a large number of trades – about 180 a week. The signal provider averages positions and opens series of orders with a small lot size. What’s not so good about Magic profits is its maximum drawdown of 58%. It’s easy to reduce risks here – go to the trading terminal settings and reduce maximum deposit load for signal copying. Naturally, profits will get smaller but it makes sense in this case. For example, by reducing the load to 50%, the subscriber can count on 130-210% in profits per year with a possible drawdown of about 30%. Quite decent figures, in fact.

Out of the newcomers, the signal Q2FX is interesting in terms of the growth to drawdown ratio – 1,300% growth in 7 months and a 10% drawdown. Its trading results indicate that here a grid expert advisor may be used that opens lots of pending orders while averaging positions.

Night Hunter is reasonably good too – growth of 313% in a year and a half, with a 40% drawdown. In this case, though, the correlation of deposits of the provider and the subscriber has to be taken into account, otherwise the $30 subscription may turn this signal into a losing one.

This doesn’t concern the following three signals – MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842, HnGcg and Geylani. I suppose it’s because of free subscriptions that they got into the top 10, considering that their trading results aren’t off the charts.

Finally, George Soros is noteworthy due to the fact that it lies in the 8th place in the subscribers’ ratings and in the 2nd place in the ratings by MetaQuotes, the developer of MT4 and MT5. The signal has been yielding rather stable profits for almost a year. The biggest drawdown of 36% happened last December. In the first 3 months of 2016, the signal produced 90% growth with a drawdown under 20%.”

John Gordon sums up, “In conclusion, I’d like to remind that before subscribing to a signal, it’s important to carefully study online monitoring data, assess potential risks and set maximum deposit load and maximum loss in the trading terminal settings. All this will make you feel much more confident as a passive investor.”

 

[Julia NordFX]

New conditions of the Affiliate Program

Dear Partners and Customers,

Thank you for being part of the NordFX Affiliate Program! We are pleased to announce that as of 11 April 2016, new conditions of the Affiliate Program come into effect and partner commissions will be almost doubled! This is the most significant upgrade in the history of our Affiliate Program.

The basic commissions increase as follows:

• For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!

VIP partners get even more attractive terms:

• For “Micro” – commission 50% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – commission 40%!

Current NordFX partners will be transferred to the new conditions automatically.

The updated terms and the revised Partner Agreement can be viewed in detail on the website http://nordfxpartners.com/.

We trust that you will see value in such a major improvement of the partner conditions and considerably increase your revenues from the NordFX Affiliate Program.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 April 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- the forecast for EUR/USD suggested that the battle line for the bulls and the bears would be drawn at 1.1400. However, the fact that they were actually equal in force was a surprise. As a result, neither of them could gain the upper hand and the week started and ended at the same level of 1.1400;

- the forecast that GBP/USD will be moving towards last February’s lows is starting to pan out. Last Wednesday, the pair sharply reached 1.4000 but, as expected, it quickly returned to the sideways channel, in which it has been moving for the last three weeks;

- the predictions for USD/JPY turned out incorrect. The pair reached the 110.70 support very fast but then, spurred by economic news from Japan, easily broke through it and went further down, finishing the week around 108.00;

- the USD/CHF pair demonstrated a sluggish sideways trend, making minor fluctuations around a 0.9570 pivot point.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summarizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- the W1 chart for EUR/USD clearly shows an ascending channel that started to form at the beginning of last December. Now the pair is basically at its top boundary. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, after rebounding from it, the pair should go down to the central line of 1.1135 and then return to 1.1500. The experts still hold onto the pivot point of 1.1400, indicating a sideways channel with quite a narrow range of 1.1320-1.1500;

- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 65% of the experts, 100% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining experts believe that the pair will continue to fluctuate in March’s range of 1.4050-1.4450;

- it is clear that all indicators point down for USD/JPY. Two-thirds of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree and reckon that the pair should reach the bottom at 105.50. Graphical analysis warns that a short-term surge up to resistance at 111.00 is possible before that. The longer-term forecast remains in force – USD/JPY should return to 114.70-117.00 in late April - early May;

- about 80% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 continue to wait for USD/CHF to bounce upward. The next target is to return to around 0.9800. Support is at 0.9500.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 April 2016


Overview of Last Week’s Forecast

- EUR/USD was predicted to move down to the central line of the ascending channel that started to form last December and is now clearly visible on W1. The pair did drop sharply but didn’t reach the target of 1.1135. Instead, it stalled at support 1.1250;

- the one third of the experts were correct saying that GBP/USD would not go beyond the boundaries of March’s side channel of 1.4050-1.4450. With that, the pair narrowed the range of its fluctuations even more, keeping within 1.4090-1.4350;

- graphical analysis proved right about USD/JPY’s possible surge upward. In fact, the pair went up but that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the momentum fizzled out after 200 points at 109.70;

- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out. At last, the long-awaited bounce off the 0.9500 support happened, and the pair went on to break through resistance at 0.9650, turn it into support and wrap up the week at 0.9680.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- EUR/USD is very likely to continue its ascending movement for the fifth month in a row. Now the pair is just above the channel’s central line of 1.1135-1.1150. According to 50% of the experts, the pair should come down to it, then bounce off and go to the upper boundary of the channel. The indicators on H4 agree with this. The other half of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 reckon that EUR/USD may move upward almost immediately. The first resistance is at 1.1350, the second – at 1.1450, and the upper boundary of the channel is near 1.1600;

- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 85% of the experts already (versus 65% last week), 80% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining 15% of the analysts believe that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, with support at 1.4050;

- all indicators on H4 and D1 point down for USD/JPY. Only 30% of the experts back them while the rest 70% predict that the pair’s rebound will end only after it reaches resistance at 111.00. Graphical analysis concurs and elaborates that this may take about a week. Now support is at 108.70. If it’s broken through, USD/JPY may first fall by 100 points and then reach the bottom at 106.70. However, the latter may happen in early May;

- about 70% of the experts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 and D1 predict that USD/CHF will continue its upward movement and attempt to get to 0.9800. Then, according to graphical analysis on D1, the pair may return to the 0.9500 support.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 April 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- D1 and W1 charts show that EUR/USD continues to move within the ascending channel that started last December. As expected by 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair aimed at the upper boundary of the channel right from the start of the week, quickly reached resistance at 1.1350 and then went down sharply to strong support at 1.1200, which is clearly visible in the monthly timeframe;

- despite the fact that most analysts predicted that GBP/USD would gravitate toward last February’s lows, the pair fulfilled the forecast of the remaining 15% of the analysts and went to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450, within which it has been moving for the sixth weeks in a row;

- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100% . It was suggested that as a result of the upward rebound that began 11 April, the pair should reach at least 111.00 over the past week. Only last Friday, though, the pair soared, broke through the resistance of 111.00 with a mighty heave and stopped at 111.76;

- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out – a further upward trend with the target of 0.9800, which happened Friday night. The pair was just 4 points short of it, making it to 0.9796.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:

-according to 85% of the experts and 90% of the indicators on H1, the EUR/USD pair should continue to move down to 1.1100-1.1150. On the other hand, graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 reckon that next week the pair will be moving in a 1.1200-1.1450 sideways channel with support at 1.1200. In the longer term, the pair should break through the lower boundary of the channel in early May and rather quickly reach a local bottom of 1.0900;

- even though GBP/USD disappointed most experts last week, the main forecast for the pair stands – moving down. This is backed by 75% of the experts who believe that the pair should bounce off the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450 and go down to its bottom boundary in the near future. Graphical analysis on D1 points out that after breaking through it, GBP/USD will still reach February’s lows around 1.3850. However, it may happen no earlier than the first or second decade of May;

- it is obvious that all indicators point upward for USD/JPY. However, over 80% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 and H4 strongly disagree and believe that after bouncing off resistance at 112.00, the pair should go down to support at 110.60. These two levels will determine USD/JPY’s movement in the near future, after which the pair will once again attempt to reach the bottom of 107.70;

- about 70% of the experts and the indicators on H4 and D1 believe that USD/CHF will consolidate above 0.9800 for some time. The main resistance in this case will be 0.9900. Graphical analysis on D1 gives an alternative view – the level of 0.9800 will remain insurmountable resistance, bouncing off which the pair will go down to the 0.9500 support. Since the pair is around 0.9800 now, it’ll be clear shortly which scenario will play out.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

HSBC Shares: Perspectives for 2016


HSBC is a major multinational financial organization that lends services to over 48 million customers throughout the world. The group has 6,100 offices in 72 countries and territories across Europe, Asia, the Middle East as well as North and Latin America. With this, according to The Telegraph, 80% of the group’s profits come from Asia.

HSBC’s activities are carried out within four business spheres:

- Retail Banking and Wealth Management;

- Commercial Banking;

- Global Banking and Markets;

- Global Private Banking.

HSBC Holdings plc shares are listed on the London, Hong Kong, New York, Paris and Bermuda stock exchanges. The number of shareholders are over 213,000 from more than 130 countries.

The biggest constituent of HSBC Holdings is its subsidiary HSBC Bank. A year ago, this major bank in the UK was at the center of a scandal after it was reported that its Swiss arm helped some clients avoid taxes by allowing them to withdraw huge amounts of cash.

That obviously couldn’t but alarm HSBC shareholders. However, according to The Guardian, there was no formal action from the City regulator, which brought some relief for investors and consolidated HSBC’s market power. Nonetheless, The Financial Times reports that the White House and President Obama aren’t going to hush it up ahead of the new presidential elections in the USA.

Despite the possibility of a further investigation, one of the world leading rating agencies Standard & Poor's has quite a positive outlook for HSBC. S&P analysts say that although HSBC Bank’s credit rating dropped very low, they expect it to be upgraded especially if global economic and geopolitical risks solidify. For the time being, S&P has confirmed its long-term credit rating for the bank and kept it as ‘stable.’

Ian Gordon, banking analyst at Investec, adds that HSBC is an attractive investment, that’s why they have £40 million invested in the shares. Lately HSBC has been criticized for a number of money-losing businesses in its structure. However, HSBC has decided to sell its Brazil operation for $5.2 billion, which is considered a good sign. Furthermore, Ian Gordon believes that HSBC shares can go up alongside UK interest rates, a few of which are expected (0.25% each) in 2016. So the Investec analyst predicts the price of HSBC shares will rise by 10% or more. His target is £6.35p a share.

“We offer our customers HSBC shares for binary options trading,” says John Gordon, leading analyst from international broker company NordFX. “While my colleague and namesake from Investec looks at how many percentage points the price of shares may gain, numbers aren’t of primary importance for us. What matters is that the price moves in the desired direction. We carefully analyze actions of such major market players as Investec, BNP Paribas, Barclays Capital, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Societe Generale, Nomura and others. Their opinions are divided, although there is a leaning toward buying HSBC shares. Thus, 20% of investors want to sell, 50% are on the fence and 30% actively buy the shares.”

The NordFX analyst continues, “For the past year, there were many discussions about transferring the HSBC headquarters from London to Hong Kong where it had been located before 1993. Ultimately it was decided to stay in London. With this, any optimization of the current HSBC business model may have a positive impact on potential profits and lead to a dynamic rise of HSBC shares.”

 

[Julia NordFX]

April 2016: Top 10 of MQL5 Trading Signals

Overview by NordFX Expert


It’s always fascinating to watch people make choices and then try to understand their reasons and motives. In this case, it’s not about presidential elections of course but about subscription to trading signals provided by the eponymous service integrated in MetaTrader 4.

As common knowledge goes, all money-related matters call for special attention, and autocopying of trades is no exception. Logically, you simply select a signal provider with some of the largest profits and replicate his trades. The question is whether it’s always the best solution. John Gordon, leading analyst at international broker company NordFX, shares his views on it.

The top 10 of the most popular signal providers for April 2016 are presented below.

I. Pound Aussie Real (growth 927%, 502 subscribers),

II. Green Line Signals (growth 42%, 478 subscribers),

III. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 61%, 336 subscribers),

IV. Asia Balance (growth 339%, 157 subscribers),

V. Q2FX (growth 1403%, 117 subscribers),

VI. FCracker (growth 20%, 96 subscribers),

VII. MWsclp (growth 41%, 84 subscribers),

VIII. CB06143 (growth 294%, 80 subscribers),

IX. Night Hunter (growth 329%, 72 subscribers),

X. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 20%, 54 subscribers).

John Gordon says, “In comparison with March, the two leaders Pound Aussie Real and Green Line Signals switched places. The former gained a position while the latter moved down, although, in my opinion, it may drop out of the top 10 by far in the next month. I doubt that someone would want to renew subscription to a signal that has lost 84% of the deposit amount in one go.

In the previous analysis, I urged to be very careful with subscription to Green Line Signals, the reasons being a short lifespan of the signal and nearly marginal drawdowns. The large number of subscribers can be explained only by their desire to get rich fast as in the 3 months of existence, the signal provider recorded impressive profits of almost 700%. However, the finale is quite typical for strategies based on the Martingale system or averaging of positions – the initial hundreds of percentage points have dwindled down to just 42%. It follows that all who subscribed to Green Line Signals in February, March and April have lost all their investments. Only January subscribers have been able to preserve their capitals.

The signal Pound Aussie Real seems to be more stable. Still, the maximum drawdown of 44% raises some concerns as well. I’d like to point out that a large drawdown is not so rare for the signal. As recently as April there was a flop of 27.5%, with a mere 1.4% profit.

The signals MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 and Q2FX have kept their positions after March. The former has increased its profitability by a modest 5%, and the latter – by 6%. With this, it should be noted that the maximum drawdowns of both signals are quite sensible – 19% and 10.4% respectively, which reduces investment risks considerably.

F Cracker is in the 6th place. I think this is rather a peculiar signal. It’s just over a month old, the drawdown is 21%, growth is 20% but there are 96 subscribers already! I believe it has to do with an effective promotional campaign by the signal provider and possibly with the participation in affiliate programs.

MWsclp is a free long-lived signal that has been producing 10-15% growth per month for the past 5 months. Nonetheless, it hadn’t demonstrated anything remarkable during the year before and its profits have been at zero on average.

There’s a very interesting signal I’d like to draw your attention to – CB06143. Its operating principle is, “Less is more.” Profits are from 1 to 10% a month, a respectable lifespan of about 2 years and a phenomenal drawdown of 4.5%.

Lastly, the signal LVIK Forex Commo ended up in the top 10 most likely because it’s 2 years old and its drawdown is slightly above 10%. However, its profits are quite modest – only 20% over 111 weeks. The upside is free subscription.”

“In conclusion,” says John Gordon, “what could (and should) be emphasized is the common thread of this overview: it’s important to do proper money management and not to chase big profits; it’s important to regulate risks in the MT4 settings (first off, adjusting maximum deposit load) and select signal providers with a reputable history (60, 80, 100 and more weeks). Luckily, they are well-represented on the MetaTrader list.”

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 May 2016


First, a review of last week’s predictions:

- graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 were 100% right in their forecast for EUR/USD. According to them, the pair was supposed to bounce off support at 1.1200 and move on to resistance at 1.1450. In fact, the pair started from 1.1217 on Monday and completed the week at 1.1451;

- defying the forecasts of most analysts who all of the past month insisted on GBP/USD’s move to last February’s lows, the pair continued its upswing, broke through resistance at 1.4450 and quickly reached last February’s high of 1.4670;

- the USD/JPY pair fully confirmed the predictions of graphical analysis and the experts who believed that the pair would bounce off resistance at 112.00, go down to support at 110.60 and even further to 107.70. Due to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan on interest rates, USD/JPY not only met but actually exceeded the expectations and was just short of 100.90-105.30, i.e. the sideways channel of 2014;

- in the forecast for USD/CHF graphical analysis on D1 indicated that 0.9800 would become insurmountable resistance, the pair would bounce off it and go down to support at 0.9500. It did happen – USD/CHF consistently moved down all week long and reached the weekly low of 0.9567 on Friday.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- the experts’ opinions about EUR/USD are split almost equally – 45% are for a rise to 1.1550-1.1650, another 45% are for a fall to the levels of 1.1200-1.1300, and the remaining 10% are for a further sideways trend. Graphical analysis on W1 and MN shows clearly that EUR/USD is at the top boundary of the horizontal channel within which the pair has been moving since January 2015. Thus, 1.1450 may become strong resistance, bouncing off which the pair will move to the central line of the channel at 1.1000. It should be noted that the coming week is full of important economic events, including the release of US employment data, which may have a significant impact on virtually all USD pairs;

- the analysts differ about GBP/USD – 40% are for a fall, 40% are for a rise to 1.5000 whereas 20% and graphical analysis on H4 are for a sideways trend within 1.4500-1.4660. In the longer term, 75% of the experts believe the pair will go down while graphical analysis elaborates that the main support will be at 1.4200;

- there is no consensus among the experts regarding USD/JPY either. As for the indicators, all of them obviously point down after the pair’s sharp fall. With this, according to graphical analysis on D1, one can expect the pair to bounce to 109.00-110.00 and then try to reach the low of 105.00 again;

- about 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that USD/CHF should make another attempt at consolidating above 0.9800. The main resistance will be at 0.9900 in this case. However, graphical analysis on H4 indicates that this can happen only after the pair rebounds from support around 0.9520-0.9500.


Roman Butko, NordFX