NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Film director Quentin Tarantino will present a collection of seven NFTs (non-fungible token) based on the 1994 film Pulp Fiction. Each NFT contains an uncut movie scene and bonus content available only to the owner, including original handwritten pages of the script, Tarantino audio commentary and other details about the movie and the director. The auction will be held on the OpenSea trading platform and will be announced later.
NFT is a non-fungible unique token. NFTs work on the blockchain, they first appeared back in 2017 in the Ethereum system. Secret NFT technology allows content creators to decide which collectibles are public and which are private to owners.

- Burger King fast food chain will give away cryptocurrency prizes to visitors in the United States. The prize pool contains 20 BTC, 200 ETH and 2 million DOGE. it is required to spend more than $5 at Burger King to participate in the draw.

- As bitcoin's math and logic do not allow copying or forgery of the first cryptocurrency, it surpasses the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. He also noted the decentralized nature of digital gold, which allows it to maintain a level of predictability that is difficult to achieve with the US dollar. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation.
“Look at the US dollar, the government can create new banknotes and borrow, it's like it will never be corrected. Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity. Another bitcoin can never be created,” said Steve Wozniak.

- The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it.
“Inflation undermines the income of the poor. Inflation makes the rich richer. Biden and the feds are corrupt. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” said Kiyosaki, who has always been very enthusiastic about bitcoin. “I love bitcoin because I don’t trust the Fed, the Treasury or Wall Street,” this investor said.

- The development team does not stop working on improving the Ethereum network, which inspires experts to make the most daring price predictions. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that now is almost the last opportunity to purchase ETH at a price below this mark.
Among the reasons for the increase in the price of this altcoin, we can consider the recent activation of the London hard fork. In addition, thanks to the latest Ethereum Altair update, a new all-time high of almost $4,500 was set on October 29. However, after this update, network fees have almost doubled, which cannot be considered a factor accompanying the growth of ETH.

- Cryptotrader hamster Mr. Goxx has its own collection of non-fungible tokens (NFT) called Goxx Capital. The tokens are made in the form of animated insert cards.
With NFT sales, the “business partner” (aka owner) of the hamster plans to assemble a new “trade office” for his pet. According to him, the updated workspace will expand the functionality for the hamster's activities, as well as provide more interactive elements for the so-called "wheel of intentions" and "decision tunnels".
Recall that the trading process boils down to the following: Mr. Goxx spins the wheel of intentions, on the basis of which one of 30 tokens is selected. Then the hamster must run through one of two decision-making tunnels: to buy or to sell a token. Mr.Goxx showed a profit of almost 50% in early September. Bitcoin, for example, was only 41% higher, the S&P 500 brought 6-7% to investors, and the Katie Wood ARK Innovation fund was 5%.

- The high price of bitcoin indicates that the economy is facing real inflation, and the rise in prices is not a temporary phenomenon. This opinion was expressed by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Bloomberg writes. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment," Thiel said and expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency.

- It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page whitepaper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. Nakamoto summarized the main characteristics of the first cryptocurrency in the foreword to this document: “A fully peer-to-peer version of electronic money would allow sending online payments directly from one side to the other, bypassing financial institutions.”
The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry.

- Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will continue for another six months to a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000, Woo predicts.

- TV presenter, best-selling author and former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer said during the Mad Money program on CNBC that he supports investors buying cryptocurrencies if they are aware of the risks associated with this asset class.
According to him, all the arguments in favour of cryptocurrencies are based on the “theory of a greater fool”, according to which there is always someone who is ready to buy an asset for a higher price, expecting to quickly resell it at a profit to someone else. However, when the "fools" are no longer found, the value of assets drops sharply. If people understand this, why not speculate in cryptocurrencies, Kramer said.
“I bought bitcoin and ethereum not for protection from inflation,” the TV presenter admitted. - To be honest, it was a kind of gambling for me. I was just playing on the psychology of the crowd, and I have no idea why the rate of these crypto assets went up. Most likely, there are a lot of overly enthusiastic people who want to sell them for a higher price. I have no attachment to ethereum, but I keep it, because millions of even bigger fools can buy it,” Kramer said.
Previously, he preferred to invest in gold and stocks, but now he believes that it is important to diversify the investment portfolio, 5% of which can be bitcoin or ethereum.

- Investors should invest in hedge funds and real estate, as traditional assets, including stocks and bonds, will lag behind them in the next year and will show a return of only 5%, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase.
Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. At the same time, the growth of cryptocurrencies is projected at 15% per annum, which is twice the expectations from hedge funds and exceeds the real estate sector with 12.5%.
As for bitcoin, analysts estimate its fair value at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. If the BTC volatility drops by half, the $73,000 target will “look reasonable”.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 08 - 12, 2021​

EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market

The central events last week were the meetings of two regulators, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Traders were also certainly interested in data from the US labor market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.

As expected, the Fed announced the curtailment of $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program starting this month. The purchases of treasuries will decrease by $10 billion to $70 billion in November, mortgage bonds - by $5 billion, to $35 billion. The total reduction in the volume of asset repurchase will remain at the same level of $15 billion In December.

Commenting on the results of the last meeting, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said that the time for raising interest rates has not yet come, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then. At the same time, Powell noted that the pace of reduction of incentives can be adjusted at the beginning of next year both towards acceleration and towards deceleration, depending on economic conditions.

It can be understood from this statement of the head of the FRS that the regulator keeps a path to retreat, and one should not expect an early cut in the ultra-soft monetary policy at the moment. This interpretation pushed the stock indices up again, and Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq updated their historical highs once again.

(It is worth noting that for the first time, transactions with NASDAQ 100 (Ustec.c) helped one of the traders to become one of the most productive NordFX clients, earning a profit of $38.124 in October).

So, the US Central Bank is ready to make and adjust its decisions depending on the market situation. As for the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed, it believes the markets are wrong. ECB President Christine Lagarde said Oo Wednesday November 03 that the bank's Governing Council has clearly formulated three conditions for raising interest rates, and that these conditions will not yet be met in 2022.

Investors were not pleased with the macro statistics of the Eurozone either. Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) declined for the third month in a row, and the volume of industrial orders in Germany in September rose by only 1.3%, despite the fact that in August it fell by 8.8%. The growth in the yield of government bonds of the Eurozone countries, caused by their active sale, which reminds the markets of the prospects of the debt crisis, looks alarming as well.

All these factors put significant pressure on the common European currency and led to its fall, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair renewed its October lows.

Focusing on the recovery of the labor market, the head of the FRS outlined the priorities for his organization. Against this background, the dynamics of NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) becomes even more important. This US non-farm employment report is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month, this time November 05. According to its data, the number of new jobs in October was 531K (with the forecast of 425K and the previous value of 312K). In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in September. Stock indices soared even higher against this background. As for the EUR/USD pair, after a correction, it completed the weekly session at 1.1567.

Naturally, most indicators on D1 face south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same could be said about oscillators. However, 10% of them have taken a neutral position, 10% are in the oversold zone and another 10% turned to the north at the very end of the week.

As for the experts, 25% vote for the growth of the pair, the same number is for its fall, and 50% is for the sideways movement. Support levels are 1.1535, 1.1500, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, data on the state of the consumer markets in Germany and the United States will be released on Wednesday, November 10, and the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan will be announced on Friday, November 12. This index is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money.

GBP/USD: Shock from the Bank of England

The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022. These are very high rates, and a few days before the meeting of the Bank of England, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates more quickly than originally planned. As a result, the markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November and... were deceived in their expectations.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England voted at its meeting on Thursday November 04 by seven votes to two to keep the interest rate at the previous level of 0.1%, and by six votes to three to keep the volume of asset purchases at £ 895 billion. Disappointed investors responded to the regulator with the collapse of the pound. The GBP/USD pair reached a local low, falling 270 points to 1.3425. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3490.

Andrew Bailey stated in response to criticism that he misled investors, that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it is not my job to manage the markets." Sylvana Tenreiro, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, who believes that the Central Bank should not react to short-term shock situations and the problem of supply of goods will become less acute next year, spoke soothingly. The opposite position was taken by Deputy Head of the Bank Dave Ramsden, who said that he voted for a rate increase, as the shortage of labor is becoming more and more noticeable.

As some analysts note, there are currently growing expectations that London will decide to apply Article 16 of the EU Leaving Agreement. It is possible within the framework of this article for one of the parties to suspend part of the Brexit transaction if its further execution creates serious economic or other difficulties. That said, the EU's response could be more radical than the UK government expects. And this situation has and will continue to exert additional pressure on the pound.

The preliminary data on the UK GDP for the Q3 will be released on Thursday, November 11. They may affect market sentiment along with macro statistics from the US. In the meantime, analysts' opinion is as follows: 55% of experts bet on bears to win, 35%, along with graphical analysis on D1, support bulls, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.

Among the oscillators on D1, 75% is colored red, 25% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3470, 1.3420, 1.3380, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

USD/JPY: Sideways Trend Again

The charts of the last three weeks showed that the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair has dried up, and it has moved to its favorite activity: the sideways trend, limited by the range of 113.40-114.40. The yen rose on the back of the 10-year Treasury yield decline to 1.53% and continued to strengthen at the end of the working week, finishing at the lower boundary of this channel.

The current situation is clearly confirmed by the spread of expert opinions and indicator readings. Among analysts, 50% expect the pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel, 25% to move along the 113.00 Pivot Point, and 25% to fall to the 112.00 area. It should be noted that, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the latter increases to 50%.

There is a complete discordance among the oscillators on D1: 35% look north, 40% south, 15% give oversold signals and the remaining 10% turn neutral grey. There is a neutrality among the trend indicators: 50% side with the green ones, the other 50% side with the red ones. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.25, further targets are 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High

It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page technical document described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry. More precisely, multi-trillion, since the total crypto market capitalization reached a new all-time high last week, exceeding $2.7 trillion.

But the share of bitcoin has decreased again: its dominance index fell over the week from 44.15% to 42.84%. The historical record of $ 66,925, set by bitcoin on October 20, has not yet been broken. The bulls did try to update this result on Tuesday November 02, but having reached the $64,260 high, the BTC/USD pair reversed and rolled back to $60,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 73 points (70 weeks ago).

While the main cryptocurrency is marking time, the attention of many investors has turned to altcoins. Ripple rose in price (XRP/USD), and the ETH/USD pair updated its all-time high once again, reaching $4.657 on Wednesday November 03.

Among the top altcoins, Ethereum attracts with its long history and use in many projects. The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. However, after the activation of the London hard fork and the latest Ethereum 2.0 Altair update, commissions on the network have almost doubled, but the developers promise to solve this problem.

The past week is the sixth in a row since the beginning of the rise in the rate of Ethereum, which has added 75% since September 21. This token appears now to be targeting the $5,000 level. And this is not a limit. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that it is almost the last opportunity now to purchase this altcoin at a price below this mark. The forecast of Goldman Sachs specialists, who do not exclude that the ETH/USD pair may rise to $8,000 by the end of the year, is somewhere in the middle.

Of course, it would be unfair to say that the market has completely forgotten about bitcoin. Many investors and experts still single out this cryptocurrency. Whales added 142,000 BTC to their wallets in the last week of October alone, according to Chainalysis.

“Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity” that allows it to maintain a level of predictability. Therefore, it outperforms the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation of fiat money.

The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” Kiyosaki urged. “I love bitcoin because I don't trust the Fed, Treasury, and Wall Street.”

Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor, in his opinion, indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will last another six months or a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000.

The forecast of analysts at JPMorgan Chase looks much more modest. Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. As for bitcoin, its fair value is estimated by JPMorgan Chase analysts at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. However, if BTC's volatility is halved, the $73,000 target will "look reasonable."

PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel doubts as well that now is the right time to buy BTC. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment,” Bloomberg quoted him as saying. At the same time, Thiel expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency when its price was significantly lower.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,420 on Tuesday, November 9. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,830. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.947 trillion. Analysts attribute the current rally to the lack of supply amid increasing global interest in digital assets.

- The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, so it is not only cryptocurrencies that are in the bubble. This opinion was expressed at the Boston conference by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller. “Cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities [...] This bubble is in everything, every asset on the planet,” he said. At the same time, Druckenmiller noted that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is not like the dot-com bubble, which, according to him, had covered significantly fewer people than the digital asset industry today.
Earlier, the famous American investor Bill Miller said that bitcoin is not a bubble, but the asset's volatility is a payment for its advantages.

- Newly elected Mayor of New York Eric Adams called in a CNN commentary on local schools to prepare students for a “new way of thinking” related to blockchain technology and digital assets. The politician noted the low awareness of young voters on this subject: “When I talked about blockchain and bitcoin, young people stopped me and asked me, 'What is this?” Adams called digital assets being "a new way of paying for goods and services around the world" as an argument for including this topic in curricula.
New York must remain a hub for innovation, he said. To this end, the newly elected mayor also plans to oblige local businesses to accept BTC and other cryptocurrencies as a payment method. In addition, he promised to receive his first three paychecks in bitcoin.

- Rahul Rai, manager of the BlockTower Capital cryptocurrency fund, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that, ETH is likely to become the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization which could reach several trillion dollars, as early as in mid-2022.
Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

- Apple CEO Tim Cook said he owns cryptocurrencies, using them to diversify his investment portfolio. According to him, he was interested in digital assets "for a while" and researched this topic. At the same time, the CEO of Apple emphasized that the corporation he heads is not going to invest in these financial instruments and does not plan to launch related services or integrate them as an option for paying for its goods or services.
Tim Cook noted that "there are other things that Apple is definitely looking at." It is still unknown what these words can mean. However, it was in May that the corporation opened a vacancy for a business development manager with five years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry, who is to lead the affiliate program in the segment of "alternative payments".

- Swedish regulators believe that mining bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies using the Prоf-оf-Wоrk algorithm will prevent the country and the European Union from complying with the Paris Agreement on climate change. Officials noted that this process leads to the emission of up to 120 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year. This is equivalent to the carbon footprint of 100 million round-trip flights between Sweden and Thailand.
Regulators have called for a ban on the mining of digital assets in such an energy-intensive manner. At the same time, they believe that the use of renewable energy for mining is unreasonable, since "this energy is urgently needed for [...] large-scale production of batteries and the electrification of the transport sector." According to the University of Cambridge, the electricity used to mine 1 bitcoin is enough to drive 1.8 million kilometers in a medium-sized electric vehicle.

- “Purely bullish” sentiment reigns among retail investors regarding bitcoin. This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. This rarely plays into the hands of cryptocurrencies, analysts say.
The market, according to Santiment, has formed an “irrational trust” in bitcoin, which can lead to a price correction.
Retail traders are excited about the potential of bitcoin. As for the "bitcoin whales", the situation here is not so straightforward. On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTС. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones.

- Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley created a cryptocurrency analytics division in September. And now it has published a guide to the cryptocurrency market for its wealthiest clients. The bank's strategists conducted a detailed analysis of the various activities, sectors and trends that currently make up the highly speculative crypto industry.
Given that the total market capitalization has exceeded $2.8 trillion, and investors are increasingly interested in DеFi, NFT and stablecoins, Morgan Stanley is convinced that this will accelerate the introduction of state regulation in this area.
Morgan Stanley launched three bitcoin funds earlier this year. The minimum deposit required to participate in them is $5 million for institutional investors and $2 million for individuals.

- The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000.
The review published by Kraken also notes that November has historically been volatile, which brings the highest monthly returns. If bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction can be expected. However, the drop will be no more than 20%.

- Assessing the price of the main cryptocurrency, analyst Willie Woo came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, the expert commented, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode.

- According to a cryptocurrency analyst known as Altcoin Shеrpa, altcoins will not show the expected high results in the near future due to the bullish exchange rate movement of BTC. “Pay attention to the drop in altcoin/BTC pairs if bitcoin starts moving,” he writes. "I believe that the altcoin season has not yet arrived. They will have time to prove themselves, but after the bitcoin rally cools down."
The analyst noted that bitcoin has formed a higher low of around $60,000, and while there is a possibility of a short-term decline, he expects the asset to grow significantly from current levels: “There is possibility of a short trip to $55,000. But I don't care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTС, and when it starts moving, it will be fast. "

- Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen, on the other hand, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,¬” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be possible to show better results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin."
While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." "We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation."

- A well-known cryptanalyst under the nickname PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year."
In the long term, PlanB sees BTC experiencing a hyperbolic surge.
“The old people have the money now. Real estate and gold are physical, not digital. Digital scarcity is a next generation phenomenon, so I'm sure it will happen. I see in my model (S2FX) that there is a linear relationship between scarcity and cost. Scarcity, in my opinion, is the most important factor causing this linear relationship and forcing people to invest more money."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 15 - 19, 2021​

EUR/USD: Rising Inflation Equals to Rising USD

All US macroeconomic statistics turned out to be worse than forecast. But despite this, the American currency continues to grow. The DXY dollar index, which measures it against a basket of six other major currencies, hit 95.26 on Friday, November 12, gaining about 2% over the past two weeks. It would seem that everything should be the other way around. So, what is the reason for this strange situation? It turned out to be the rapid growth of inflation.

According to the Labor Department, the US CPI rose 6.2% in October, a record in more than 30 years. Inflation was higher only in November 1990. Compared to September, the price growth rate has accelerated by 0.8%, while core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) has accelerated to 4.6%, which is also the highest in three decades. And, apparently, this is not the limit. Inflation in the US is forecast to continue to rise in the coming months on the back of housing, utilities, energy and car prices. The CPI, which reflects the change in the cost of living in the country, has surpassed the 5% mark for the fifth month in a row. And this makes us doubt the assurances of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that high inflation is temporary. However, not only investors are in doubt, but also the Fed itself.

According to classical economic theory, the dollar should have weakened significantly in such a situation. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has turned everything upside down, forcing regulators to implement monetary stimulus (QE) programs in the spring of 2020, flooding markets with cheap money and lowering interest rates.

Finally, the Fed reported that it is gradually beginning to curtail $120 billion of the asset purchase program starting this month. As for the rate hike, according to Jerome Powell, the time has not yet come for this, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then.

However, many investors felt that with such a galloping inflation, the Fed's patience could quickly run out and the regulator would be forced to raise rates before the summer of 2022.

An analysis of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) derivatives shows that there is a 64% chance that rates may rise even before June. Previously, the market was confident that the regulator would raise interest rates at least once next year. Now the likelihood that it will happen twice has increased from 63% to 80%, three times - from 29% to 49%. And some hotheads believe that the US Central Bank will take the first step in this direction this year.

All these expectations made the dollar continue to grow. It was further supported by the soaring yields on US government bonds. Growing inflation reduces the purchasing power of the coupons paid on them, and there are few people willing to invest in securities, the yield on which covers inflation by only a third.

As for the data on the US labor market published on November 9, the inflation-shocked market practically ignored them. But they also turned out to be much worse than forecasts. The number of repeated claims for unemployment benefits was expected to decrease by 50K, and it rose by 59K instead.

The growing dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair to the lows of July 2020. It dropped to 1.1432 on Friday, November 12 and ended the week at 1.1446. The American currency has gained almost 900 points against the euro since the beginning of this year. And if the situation continues to develop as it is now, it will not stop there.

Indicators on D1 confirm this forecast, pointing to the south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although a quarter of them are in the oversold zone.

In anticipation of a correction, 40% of experts vote for the growth of the pair. 60% vote for its further fall. The nearest support level is 1.1435, then 1.1350 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, there will be preliminary data on the Eurozone GDP for the Q3 on Tuesday, November 16. Data on retail sales in the United States will be released on the same day, they are very important for assessing the impact of inflation on the country's consumer market. The working week will end with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday, November 19.

GBP/USD: Another Victory for the Dollar

The dollar, pushed by inflation in the US, continues to put pressure on the British currency, as a result, the GBP/USD pair has been falling for the sixth month. It updated another low last week and settled in the zone of long-term support/resistance, where it has been periodically since 2016. The local minimum of the week was fixed at 1.3352 this time, and the last chord sounded at 1.3421.

The macro statistics released on Thursday; November 11 did not help the pound either. And it seems that GDP for the Q3 turned out to be higher than the forecast, but the growth rates of the UK economy slowed down by more than 3.5 times, from 23.6% to 6.6%, and the industrial production growth rate fell from 4.0% to 2.9% (against the forecast of 3.4% ). Such a sharp slowdown, especially noticeable against the background of smoother similar indicators of the Eurozone and the United States, disappointed greatly, and even scared investors.

The threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022.

This is a very high rate, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates earlier than planned. The market reaction was similar to the one that strengthened the dollar last week. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down.

UK unemployment data are due out on Tuesday November 16, followed by October CPI data the next day. Naturally, the state of the labor market and inflation will have an impact on market sentiment and the dynamics of the pound. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are almost equally divided: 35% of experts bet bears on the victory, 35% support the bulls, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position.

As for the oscillators on D1, 85% is colored red, 15% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

USD/JPY: Treasuries Strike

Giving a forecast for the previous week, most analysts expected the USD/JPY pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. At first, it seemed that this forecast would not come true: the pair continued its corrective movement to the south, reaching the level of 112.70. However, it then turned and soared to 114.30, confirming the expectations of experts. The week finished at 113.90.

The reason for this reversal was the “inflationary” strengthening of the dollar and, of course, a sharp increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds, with which the USD/JPY pair has a long-standing friendship. In other words, there is a direct correlation dependence.

Given the soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates will also affect the dynamics.

A number of experts consider the rise of the USD/JPY pair to 114.00 as a return to the bullish trend that began back in January 2021. Although, the charts in the interval between March 10 and September 27 show that in the absence of strong drivers, the sideways movement can drag on for several months. Unlike the euro and the pound, the yen is a safe haven currency, and therefore is able to withstand storms in financial markets for a long time.

55% of analysts currently expect the pair to continue to rise, break through the upper boundary of the 114.40 channel, rise to a range of 115.00-116.00 and renew its multi-year highs. The opposite point of view is held by 35% of experts, and the remaining 10% expect the USD/JPY pair to stay in the 113.40-114.40 side channel for some time.

As for oscillators on D1, 80% face north, 10% face south, and 10% turn gray neutral. Among the trend indicators, 100% are on the green side. The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.80, then 113.40, 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

Monday, November 15, can be noted in the calendar for the coming week. Data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 will be published on this day, and, according to forecasts, this important indicator will decrease from + 0.5% to -0.2%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise?

Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $668,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, climbing to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 73 to 84, entering the Extreme Greed zone, indicating that the main cryptocurrency was heavily overbought, and a correction was needed. Which then followed: setting a record, the BTC/USD pair turned around and rolled back into the $63,000-64,000 zone.

With regard to bitcoin, the sentiment among retail investors is "extremely bullish". This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. But the situation is not so clear-cut among the "bitcoin whales". On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTС. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones, protecting bitcoin from a sharp drop.

The correction that took place on November 10 was only about 8.5%. "Only", because with the typical volatility of bitcoin, this is not much. The current situation can be defined as "irrational confidence" in this coin on the part of investors, which can lead to a much stronger price correction.

The specialists of the Kraken crypto exchange agree with this. The review they published notes that November has historically been volatile, resulting in the highest monthly returns. But if bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected, meaning the BTC/USD pair could drop to $55,000.

The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa calls the same figure. “There is the possibility of a short-term hike to $ 55,000,” he writes. “But I don’t care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTC, and when it starts to move up, it will be rapid."

Another well-known expert, Willie Woo, came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, he said, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode.

Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, and the US has currently seen a record rise in consumer prices, which is a strong argument in favor of the flagship cryptocurrency. Despite the curtailment of the QE program and the expectation of an increase in interest rates, signs of a possible sharp devaluation of the dollar frighten investors, forcing them to invest in alternative assets in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. As a result, both BTC and stock indices update their historical highs over and over again. And forecasts for bitcoin will be in the green zone until the US Federal Reserve moves on to a broader tightening of its monetary policy.

The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000.

A respected cryptanalyst known as PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year."

Unlike many optimists, crypto strategists Benjamin Cowen, on the contrary, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be able to show more significant results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin."

While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." “We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation.”

Ethereum, the main competitor of bitcoin, showed significantly higher profitability, it grew 6.7 times in 2021. And the year is not over yet. Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization, which could reach several trillion dollars.

Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

And at the end of the review a warning from the billionaire, founder of Duquesne Capital and one of the most successful managers on Wall Street, Stanley Druckenmiller. The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, he warns. According to the financier, "cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities ... There is a bubble in everything, in every asset on the planet." And bubbles, as you know, often burst.

“Every event in the world affects a certain amount of security,” explains Druckenmiller. "I try to imagine the world as it is today, and then I try to see if there are any seismic changes and what the world might look like in 18 months. And if this is true, then what securities will be worth very differently than now? I think that many investors live only in the present. It might work in the short term, but it's a disaster in the long term.”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- US President Joe Biden signed a bill to raise $1.2 trillion to upgrade infrastructure without amendments in favor of representatives of the crypto industry. The document contains an extended definition of the concept of “broker”. Depending on the interpretation, miners, wallet developers, DeFi protocol liquidity providers and other digital market players may be required to report the activities of their users to the tax authorities. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information.
The document has been repeatedly criticized by representatives of the crypto industry, including the head of Tesla Elon Musk and the founder of the payment company Square Jack Dorsey. Some senators believe that participants in the crypto industry should be excluded from this law. According to others, only miners and sellers of hardware and software should be exempt from reporting to the tax authorities.

- Investing Twitter's cash reserves in cryptocurrencies “does not make sense right now”. This was stated by the financial director of the company Ned Segal. According to him, the social network prefers to invest in less volatile instruments, for example, securities. Earlier, Ned Segal reported that Twitter is exploring the possibility of using bitcoin, but this will require the company to make additional decisions.
As of the end of September, Twitter had $3.47 billion in cash and cash equivalents, as well as $3.94 billion in short-term investments.
Meanwhile, the payment company Square, founded by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, continues to hold the main cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. “We have purchased bitcoin, and it seems to us that this not only demonstrates our interest but can also bring benefits from a financial point of view in the long term,” the Square said.

- Bitcoin will “easily” reach a price of $500,000. This forecast was given by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, referring to the limited issue of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of rich investors in it. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said.
In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time.

- The US authorities will sell the confiscated cryptocurrency for $56 million to pay the victims of the BitConnect pyramid. The Justice Department notes that this is “the largest case of one-time recovery of losses from cryptocurrency fraud in the United States.”
The US Securities and Exchange Commission said in a statement that “BitConnect Director Glenn Arcaro and his promoters, none of whom were registered with the Commission as a broker-dealer and were not affiliated with a registered broker-dealer, promoted a potentially high-yielding investment into a lending program for retail investors using recommendation-style videos they posted on YouTube. "
Glenn Arcaro pleaded guilty to deceiving investors in the US and abroad, with the participation of whom the scheme managed to attract more than $2 billion. The verdict will be delivered on January 7, 2022, Arcaro faces up to 20 years in prison.

- Apple will inevitably allow payments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the future. This opinion was expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of the investment company Morgan Creek Digital, commenting on Apple CEO Tim Cook's recognition of investments in digital assets.
Pompliano believes that cryptocurrency will not be a separate industry, and all tech giants will sooner or later "infiltrate it into all existing assets and industries." In his opinion, technology companies will more actively enter the cryptocurrency industry in the next 10-20 years, inviting experts and leaders from it.
“It has become normal to discuss cryptocurrencies in any society without risking being branded as 'crazy or lost.' Such conversations do not carry career risks anymore,” he added.

- European electronics and home appliance retailer MediaMarkt has been hit by the Hive ransomware virus. According to Retail Detail, the incident affected many of the chain's stores, mostly in the Netherlands and Germany, and the retailer's 3,100 servers were affected. Initially, hackers demanded a ransom of $240 million in bitcoin. But after the company entered into negotiations, the amount was reduced to $50 million.
For reference: MediaMarkt owns more than 1000 retail facilities in 13 countries. The company employs about 53,000 people and has an annual turnover of over €20 billion.

- Chinese crypto journalist and analyst Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the first cryptocurrency.
The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes.
Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself.
Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years.
The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains.

- An undisclosed crypto investor bought 2.2 thousand BTC coins in October 2013, spending about $330 thousand. And so, he withdrew cryptocurrency from his wallet, which had been inactive for eight years, on this November 10. The investments of the crypto investor have increased 455 times during this time, and the value of the asset has been almost $150 million.

- it was a few months ago that there started to sound predictions that the price of bitcoin could soar to $100,000 by December. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone was an active supporter of this scenario. This analyst is known for having previously accurately predicted a repeat of the BTC run three years ago and a rise in quotes to $20,000 by the end of 2020.
However, there are skeptics among the experts. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” says popular crypto analyst Nicholas Merten. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.”

- The authorities of Miami (USA) have decided to distribute $21 million in cryptocurrency to residents of the city. Thus, each of the 442,000 Miami residents will receive approximately 0.0007 BTC, which is about $47.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez explained that he decided to take such a step in order to familiarize citizens with the concept of bitcoin. According to him, creating digital wallets for every resident is a rather laborious technical task, but he hopes for the help of cryptocurrency exchanges. After that, a digital registration system will be created to reduce the likelihood of fraud.
In addition, Francis Suarez stated in an interview with Bloomberg that one of the priorities for the city is the ability to pay civil servants their salaries in bitcoin.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 22 - 26, 2021​

EUR/USD: Closer to Parity

We made a short equation in the title of the previous review on the EUR/USD pair: “Inflation growth = USD growth”, and last week's events confirmed its fairness. Strong data on retail sales in the US, released on Tuesday, November 16, allowed the dollar to rally again, and the USD DXY index to return to the values of one and a half years ago and renew the highs of 2021. With the forecast of 1.4%, retail sales in October increased by 1.7% (the growth was twice less in September, 0.8%). The retail control group indicator went up as well, showing an increase in October by 1.6% (forecast 0.9%, growth a month earlier - 0.5%). Recall that this indicator represents the volume of retail trade in the entire industry and is used to calculate the chain price index for most goods.

Investors were also pleased with the data on industrial production and the housing market in the United States. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1263 on Wednesday, November 17.

It is clear that in the current situation the market is most interested in how this or that macro statistics will affect the rate of curtailing monetary stimulus (QE) and the rise in interest rates by central banks.

Thus, the data published last week gave investors another argument in favor of an earlier rate increase by the US Federal Reserve. According to John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the country's economy is recovering at a steady pace, the US has a huge growth in employment, and unemployment is falling very quickly. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also added fuel to the fire when he said that the Fed should become more aggressive. If it accelerates the pace of QE reduction to $30 billion a month, this could provide an opportunity for raising rates in Q1 2022. Another "hawk", the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic, believes that the Fed may start increasing rates in the middle of next year. And even such a famous “dove” as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans agreed that “raising rates in 2022 may be appropriate.”

As for analysts, Bank of America believes that rising prices and wages will push the US central bank to raise the federal funds rate in the summer of 2022, and maybe even earlier. The most conservative aggregate forecast is given by Reuters experts. According to them, the rate will rise for the first time in the Q4 2022, followed by two more increases, in Q1 and Q2 2023, as a result of which it will reach 1.25-1.5% by the end of the year.

Unlike the United States with its economic growth, things are not at all so rosy in the Eurozone with its energy crisis and the impending economic war with Great Britain. The preliminary data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 published on Tuesday, November 16, showed the absence of even minimal growth. Well, at least there's no fall.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said speaking to the European Parliament that the increase in interest rates in 2022 does not correspond to the plans of her bank, since the conditions for monetary restriction will not be implemented in the coming year. According to the regulator, tightening monetary policy in such a situation will do more harm than good.

The euro weakened not only against the dollar, but also against other currencies after such statements by the head of the ECB. Great Britain helped the European currency a little. A record rise in inflation in this country pushed the GBP/USD pair up, and it pulled EUR/USD along with it. Two more factors also played into the hands of the euro. The first is the 66th update by the S&P 500 of its all-time high for this year. The second one is the possible resignation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the appointment of Lael Brainard, who is considered to support a softer monetary policy, in his place.

A number of investors, influenced by the above factors, decided to take profit on short positions. But this only briefly helped the European currency. Having risen to 1.1373, the EUR/USD pair turned around and continued its southward movement, updated the local low at 1.1250 and closed the trading session at 1.1288.

If we translate what is happening on both sides of the Atlantic into the language of the military, then things have not yet come to real military clashes: neither side has yet raised the interest rate. The matter is limited to the maneuvers and statements of the chiefs of the "general staffs", that is, of the Central Banks. Although, of course, divergences in economic growth, as well as in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB, are likely to push the EUR/USD pair further down. Moreover, there is still room for it to fall. Recall that the quotes were at the level of 1.0635 in March 2020, 1.0352 in December 2016, and the pair was even below the parity line at 0.8225 in October 2000.

Indicators at D1 confirm the bearish forecast, pointing south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although 15% of them are in the oversold zone.

35% of experts vote for the correction and growth of the pair in the short term, 50% vote for its further fall, and 15% expect a sideways movement. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1250, then 1.1175 and 1.1075-1.1100, then 100 points lower.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, preliminary data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released on Tuesday, November 23. And the volumes of orders for capital and durable goods in the United States, as well as preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter, will become known the next day. And finally, the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC) will be published on Thursday, November 25, from which investors will try to understand how strong the "hawkish" attitude among the leadership of this regulator is.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Rate Hike on the Pound

As mentioned above, inflation in Britain hit 4.2%: the highest level since 2011 (it was 3.1% in September). The jump came amid rising energy prices and worsening supply problems. However, the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed an increase of 3.4% (2.9% a month earlier). According to many economists, consumer prices will continue to rise further in the coming months.

The released statistics increased the likelihood that the Bank of England will decide to raise the interest rate on the pound this December. This contributed to the rebound of the GBP/USD pair from November 12 low of 1.3352, to which it fell after the US recorded its highest growth in 30 years inflationary pressure.

In general, the macroeconomic statistics of the United Kingdom looked quite optimistic last week, supporting the pound.

It became known last Tuesday that the number of jobs in the country increased by 160K in October. This figure is especially important against the background of the fact that the state program for subsidizing wages, which was in force during the COVID-19 pandemic, was completely phased out in September. Many experts expected employers to start cutting jobs after the end of support. However, this did not happen and the labor market, on the contrary, continues to recover. The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in the Q3.

Recall that the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, speaking of curbing inflation on November 4, did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates more quickly than planned. And now the published indicators allowed the bulls to seize the initiative and raise the pair to a height of 1.3513 on Thursday, November 18. However, this was followed by a rebound, and it completed the five-day period at 1.3444.

If the key rate for the pound increases in December, we can expect the GBP/USD pair to grow to the 1.3800-1.3900 zone. However, while this has not happened, most analysts (75%) expect the pair to fall further. Only 25% bet on a quick victory for the bulls.

As for the oscillators on D1, 80% are red, 10% are green and 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators are still 100% red. Support levels are 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

As for the macro statistics for the coming week, it is worth noting the publication of the UK Services Business Activity Index (PMI) on Tuesday November 23. This indicator, published by the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics, is an indicator of the economic situation in the field of sales and employment in this sector. However, it is not as important as the country's manufacturing PMI

USD/JPY: Still East

While the US Federal Reserve cuts monetary stimulus, the ECB has frozen QE at the previous level, the Japanese government announced an unprecedented program of economic stimulus for the total 55.7 trillion yen ($487 billion) on Friday November 19. Tokyo hopes that this measure will increase the country's GDP by 5.6%. As stated, the Bank of Japan will pursue an appropriate monetary policy, closely monitoring market movements and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy.

“We hope that the Bank of Japan is clearly aware of the urgency of the measures and continues to coordinate closely with the government to achieve a proper mix of fiscal and monetary policy,” the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan said in a statement.

In what way did the USD/JPY pair react to this event? well, actually... in no way. A safe harbor should remain calm no matter what.

In general, the dynamics of the pair fully followed the forecast given the previous week. Most analysts expected the pair to rise, break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel and try to update multi-year highs. This is exactly what happened: the pair was noted at a height of 114.96 on November 17. However, then the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair returned to the mid-term trading range, putting the last chord in its central part, at the level of 114.00.

Given the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. And that USD/JPY will not only reach the 115.00-116.00 range, but will also consolidate there, updating the 2017 highs. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates as well as the yield of American treasuries will also affect the dynamics.

As a result of the backward movement that the pair demonstrated last week, the oscillators on D1 are completely confused: 20% of them point north, 40% - south and 40% - east. There is no unity among trend indicators either: 60% look up, 40% - on the contrary, down.

The picture is similar among analysts. 40% of them expect the growth of the pair, the same amount expect its fall, and the remaining 20% just shrug their shoulders. The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.40, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise?

Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 84, being in the Extreme Greed zone, which indicated that the main cryptocurrency was strongly overbought and the need for a correction that was not long in coming.

We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange in the previous review, according to which if the current growth of bitcoin stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected. That is, the BTC/USD pair may fall to $55,000.

The cryptocurrency analyst Altcoin Sherpa called the same figure. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support.

In addition, Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the main cryptocurrency.

The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes.

Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself.

Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years.

The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains.

Analyst Nicholas Merten is also skeptical about the near future of the flagship cryptocurrency. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” he says. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.”

At the time of writing the review, the BTC/USD pair is around $58,000, the local minimum was recorded on November 19 at $55,638. The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.590 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell by as much as 50 points, to 34, being in the zone of Fear.

The news background is neutral. More precisely, it is ambiguous. On the one hand, for example, the Bitcoin Taproot network was updated on November 14 - the first major change in functionality since 2017. The main cryptocurrency needs to become more efficient, scalable and confidential. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden signed a bill to upgrade the infrastructure. Depending on the interpretation of this document, it may turn out that miners, wallet developers, liquidity providers in DeFi-protocols and other players in the digital market may be required to report to the tax office. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information.

No confidentiality!

A very good reason is needed for bitcoin to rise sharply again. And if it does not appear, the BTC/USD pair has many chances to stay stuck for a long time in the zone $50,000 to $60,000, sagging from the maximum by 15-30%. However, the current drawdown does not prevent many crypto enthusiasts from maintaining remarkable optimism.

Thus, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, is confident that bitcoin will “easily” reach the price of $500,000. He gave such a forecast, referring to the limited emission of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of wealthy investors. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said.

In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time.

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

This money will be useful to you, won't it?

It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Latvian law enforcement officers detained a suspect in creating a fraudulent cryptocurrency project, who disappeared with €500,000 stolen from deceived customers. According to the police, the detainee is the creator of the Hodlife project and the token of the same name and operated from Spain. He promoted the fraudulent platform on social media, promising quick profits, and he made an exit scam last June and disappeared with investors' money. According to preliminary estimates, more than a thousand investors have suffered.
The stolen funds were laundered through mixing services, but Interpol employees were able to establish a link between different wallets and tracked the attacker.

- US Senator Cynthia Lummis criticized Hillary Clinton for concerns about cryptocurrencies. Earlier, during the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, former First Lady, Secretary of State in the Obama administration and participant of the presidential race in 2016, Mrs. Clinton said that cryptocurrencies can undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Digital assets can also destabilize entire countries, she added.
“Great leaders are not afraid of the future. America could be a winner by adopting bitcoin as a hard currency that can be used to stabilize the dollar and reverse the tailspin that began in 1971,” Lammis wrote in response. She did not elaborate on how the first cryptocurrency should stabilize the dollar, but she did mention 1971. US President Richard Nixon completely abolished the gold standard then, transferring control of the money supply to the Fed. It is believed that this has made the economy more prone to inflation, allowing the printing of unsecured money.

- According to research by The Advisor Coach, Dogecoin is the most searched cryptocurrency in 23 US states. Bitcoin and ethereum are on the second (10 states) and third (eight) lines. The fourth place is a clone of Dogecoin, Shiba Inu.
Analysts explained Dogecoin's leadership by Elon Musk's attention to this asset. Tesla CEO invited users to vote for the option of accepting payments in Dogecoin back in May. Prior to this, the billionaire reported that SpaceX will launch the Doge-1 satellite to the moon in 2022. According to him, the mission is fully paid for with this meme cryptocurrency.
Dogecoin was worth $0.001353 on October 1, 2020. The price rose to $0.6311 per coin In May 2021, or 465 times. However, by the time of this writing on November 24, 2021, it has lost more than 65% in price, falling to $0.2172.

- Edward Snowden, a former NSA and CIA officer who asked for asylum in Russia, said that he treats dog-like tokens like Dogecoin or Shiba Inu badly. According to him, many take meme coins seriously and may suffer losses because of this.
Against the background of the growing popularity of such assets, fraudsters have become more active. The team behind Shiba Inu warned users about the spread of fake project groups on social networks.

- Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for inventing the first cryptocurrency. This initiative was made by Daniel Leon, co-founder and COO of the Celsius Network crypto platform. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," Daniel Leon argued for his position.
He explained that before the advent of cryptocurrencies, people were forced to trust intermediaries, which are centralized institutions like banks and governments. With digital assets, this is no longer necessary. According to Daniel Leon, trusting the "code" rather than the middleman is easier and safer.
“When you lend money to your bank, it pays you 0.1%, but when you borrow, you pay 7.73%. Where is justice? To make matters worse, if a credit institution fails, the government bails it out. In the event of a failure of the government itself, it simply prints money: 30% of all dollars in circulation have been issued in the last 18 months,” COO Celsius Network said indignantly.

- Over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion.
31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. At the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the assets of billionaire families as a whole is still only 1%. Most of the respondents said that they plan to keep the volume of such investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them.

- A new report from analyst firm Glassnode showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts pointed out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC, which in turn means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are only building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million.
The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally.

- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also expressed a similar opinion to Glassnode. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018.
Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Young Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward.

- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again criticized the decision of the El Salvadorian authorities to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. “Given the high volatility of the bitcoin price,” the Fund said in a statement, “its use as legal tender carries risks for consumers and also threatens financial integrity and stability. Its use also gives rise to contingent fiscal liabilities,” the review says.
The IMF came to this opinion following the visit of its staff to El Salvador. Experts who visited the country recommended that the government of El Salvador "narrow the scope of the bitcoin law and strengthen the regulation and supervision of the new payment system."

- A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment.
The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the “bottom” of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one.

- Chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone believes that, despite the temporary correction in prices, BTC will grow in 2022. He said on his Twitter account that the asset is likely to face resistance at $100,000 and the $50,000 mark will act as a support level. “The level of adoption of this young technology/asset is increasing, and the supply volume is less and less, which indicates signs of maturation,” the expert explained his forecast.

- The CEO of the American investment management company ARK Invest Katie Wood confirmed her previous forecast for the price of bitcoin at $500,000, saying that this will be facilitated by the growth of institutional investments. Such a price will be achieved if institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, said last week that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin." “I think gold was probably the best asset to own,” he added. "But bitcoin is simply the best version of storing value..."
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of another investment firm, Skybridge Capital, also expects bitcoin to "ultimately outshine gold." The price of this cryptocurrency, in his opinion, will easily reach $500,000, so one should invest in BTC right now. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci.
Paul Tudor Jones, a legendary trader with a personal fortune of $4.6 billion and fund manager of the Tudor Investment Corporation, has also admitted recently that he prefers bitcoin over gold. In his opinion, BTC is an excellent alternative as a hedge against inflation in the current economic situation. “It is obvious that there is room for cryptocurrency,” the billionaire said. “At the moment, it is winning the race against gold... And I would prefer it.”


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 29 - December 03, 2021​

EUR/USD: Panic Named B.1.1.159

The past week can be divided into two parts: before and after Thanksgiving. Let us remind you that the day Thursday, November 25 was a day off in the United States. And since the lion's share of capital is controlled by banks and funds located in this country, the lull comes in financial markets around the world on this day.

So, what happened before November 25? And there was everything, as predicted by most experts. Divergence in the economic growth of the US and the EU, as well as in the monetary policy of the FRS and the ECB, the energy crisis in Europe continued to push the EUR/USD pair further down. The reanimation of the Brexit theme contributed to its fall. As a result, the pair reached a local bottom at 1.1185 on the evening of November 24. This was followed by holiday Thursday and… the markets woke up on Friday.

And they not just woke up but woke up panicked by the news that a new dangerous strain of coronavirus has been discovered in South Africa that may be insensitive to existing vaccines. WHO convened an urgent meeting, noting that almost 100 cases of infection with the new strain B.1.1.159, which has a "large number of mutations", have already been recorded.

Against the backdrop of this alarming news, investors' expectations for an early increase in the Fed's interest rate went down, and pessimism, on the contrary, rose. According to experts from CME Group, if the likelihood that the rate will remain unchanged until June 2022 was 18% on Thursday, it rose to 34% on Friday.

Compared to November 24, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped by almost 10%. Stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes flew down. The markets began to run away from risks. Investor panic and falling US Treasury yields helped EUR/USD bulls to raise the pair to 1.1321, where it ended the working week.

In fact, it is difficult to predict to which of the American or European economies the new wave of coronavirus may do more harm. According to ING Group analysts, it is now important to understand whether the new COVID strain has already reached Europe (which is geographically closer to Africa). This could further worsen sentiment in the Eurozone and put pressure on the euro.

The difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB will undoubtedly continue to influence the behavior of the EUR/USD pair. Several representatives of the European regulator have recently made it clear that the central bank intends to complete the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in March 2022. The pair barely reacted to these comments. But the meeting of the ECB Governing Council on December 2, dedicated to monetary policy, may become the main event of the coming week. Markets expect not just words and hints, but specific decisions on the timing of the completion of the emergency PEPP program and adjusting the volumes of the main Asset Purchase Program (APP), QE analogue. Moreover, the volume of APP can be increased to compensate for the folding of PEPP. It is also possible that the regulator will raise inflation forecasts for 2021-2023.

It is logical to assume that the Fed's hawkish policy and the dovish policy of the ECB will continue to push the EUR/USD pair south in the coming months. Goldman Sachs experts predict that the key USD rate will rise in June, September and December 2022, and the Fed will increase the volume of QE reduction to $30 billion per month starting from January. The rate may be raised twice more in 2023 and will reach 1.5%. The ECB, on the other hand, plans for 2023 to take only the first step. Until then, it will be easy to watch record price growth in the Eurozone countries.

However, it is possible that the December 02 meeting of the Governing Council of the European regulator will bring investors some hawkish surprises. Therefore, the most cautious of them will begin to close short positions in advance, fixing profits, which in the short term will lead to further growth in EUR/USD.

35% of experts who vote for the growth of this pair in the coming week agree with this development. The opposite position is taken by 55% of analysts who believe that the ECB will not make any significant changes to its monetary policy now. The remaining 10% vote for the sideways trend.

Indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color. There are 75% of them both among oscillators and among trend indicators. As for the oscillators, 15% give signals that the pair is oversold, and another 10% have taken a neutral-gray position. As for trend indicators, 25% changed from red to green by the end of the week.

Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1300-1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1230, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100.

As for the events of the coming week, apart from the ECB meeting, the publication of numerous statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the Eurozone should be noted. These data will be released on November 29 and 30, December 01 and 03. As for the US, we are expecting a speech by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who held this post for a second term, on Tuesday, November 30, the ADP report on the level of employment in the US private sector and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published on Wednesday December 01. And investors traditionally wait for data from the American labor market on the first Friday of the month, including such an important indicator as the NFP: the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.

GBP/USD: Pound Rescue Is in the Rate Growth

The GBP/USD pair also followed the forecast of the overwhelming majority (75%) of experts until Friday, November 26, falling to 1.3275, the lowest point for the last 5 months. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3350.

Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Lord David Frost, the UK minister responsible for implementing the EU deal, said that while there was a desire to find a negotiated solution to the Northern Ireland problem, the gap between the positions of the UK and the EU was very large. The British Government is therefore prepared to use article 16.

As a reminder, the Northern Ireland Protocol was signed two years ago as part of the treaty on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. According to London's statements, it was precisely because of the shortcomings in this document that the country faced supply disruptions and a shortage of goods. For this reason, the British government offered Brussels a new version of the protocol, which European officials saw with hostility.

As for article 16 of the current document, it allows either party to unilaterally take "protective measures" in the event that the protocol leads to "serious economic, social or environmental problems" that persist for a long time.

Fears about a new strain of COVID, which caused investors to flee from risks, are also unlikely to help the British currency. Yes, the GBP/USD pair grew slightly on Friday due to the general weakening of the dollar (the USD DXY index fell to 96.037). But the pound has long been considered a riskier asset than the dollar. And expectations about the increase in interest rates were revised by the market not only in relation to the American, but also the British currency.

Threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022.

These are very high rates, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates more quickly than planned. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down. And Andrew Bailey told disappointed investors that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it's not my job to rule the markets."

Now, in addition to all other worries, there are also concerns about a new wave of the pandemic and the impact of the B.1.1.159 strain on the country's economy. And we are talking about raising the Bank of England rate not in November, but in December. And this is not at all great: while the probability of a rate hike by 15 basis points was estimated at 75% on Wednesday, November 24, then it fell to 55% two days later.

If, following the results of the December meeting, the British regulator still raises the rate, this will push the GBP/USD pair up. 70% of analysts hope so. As for the next week, their opinions are divided equally: 50% expect growth from the pair, 50% expect a fall.

But the indicators on D1 clearly support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about the oscillators, but 15% of them have reached the oversold zone.

Support levels are 1.3300, 1.3275, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

The head of the Bank of England will make a speech on Wednesday, December 01. Investors hope that Andrew Bailey will clarify the situation with what the future monetary policy of this regulator will be.

USD/JPY: Who Benefits from COVID: Yen Takes Revenge

What is bad for risky assets, is good for the yen. This immutable rule worked this time too. The Japanese currency gained 230 pips in just one day, dropping the USD/JPY pair to 113.043. True, it once again renewed its multi-year highs two days earlier, on November 24, reaching a height of 15.514. The pair bulls were hoping this stellar rally would continue. But this didn't happen. We can only guess how many Stop-loss orders were knocked out after such a rapid reversal.

“This is a typical scenario: the flight of investors to the quality of the yen and the Swiss franc due to a new strain of the virus,” analysts from Societe Generale explained the incident.

The USD/JPY pair completed the trading session at 113.112. And now there is an intrigue: whether it will return to the trading range 113.40-114.40 or continue falling.

There are slightly more supporters of further movement to the south among experts, 55%. The remaining 45% expect at least a correction in this direction if not returning to a full-fledged upward trend. The indicators do not have even the slightest hint of unity either. As for the oscillators, 25% are colored green, 40% are red, 20% give signals that the pair is oversold, and 15% have taken a neutral position. The trend indicators have the same discord: 50% of them point to the north, the same amount - to the south.

Resistance levels are 113.40, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.00, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

As for macroeconomic statistics, retail sales data are due Monday November 29, followed by labor market and industrial production data in Japan the next day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Nobel Prize for Satoshi Nakamoto

We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange two weeks ago, according to which the BTC/USD pair could fall to $55,000. The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa called the same figure, $55,000. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support. In addition, according to Willie Woo, bitcoin is not yet ripe for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs.

Now, after a while, we can say that all these experts were generally right: the main cryptocurrency was moving, relying on support in around $55,500 and fixing the local maximum at $60.030 for all the following days, until Friday, November 26. And there was a panic in the markets on Friday. Frightened by the new strain of COVID, investors began to get rid of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.460 trillion ($2.590 trillion a week ago). And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from the fear zone to the center of the scale, up to 47 points. The BTC/USD pair was trading in the $54,350 zone at the time of this writing, on the evening of November 26, having found a local bottom at $53,600 before that.

A report by analyst firm Glassnode (which was released before November 26) showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts point out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC. This, in turn, means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are constantly building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million.

The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally.

A similar opinion to Glassnode was expressed by the CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018.

Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Young Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward.

A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment.

The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the bottom of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one.

Chief commodity strategist of Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone, as well as Willy Woo, believes that the main support is slightly lower, at $50,000. At the same time, according to the expert, bitcoin will continue to grow in 2022, where it will face strong resistance around $100,000.

Founder of Skybridge Capital investment company Anthony Scaramucci expects that the flagship cryptocurrency “will eventually eclipse gold”, and its price will easily reach $500,000. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, echoed him saying that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin."

The same target level for BTC, $500,000 was named by the CEO of ARK Invest Katie Wood, confirming her previous forecast. True, at the same time, she made a reservation that such a price could be achieved provided that institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin.

So far, 5% is out of the question. Indeed, the interest in digital assets among big business representatives is growing. So, over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion.

31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. But at the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the portfolios of billionaire families is on average only 1%. The majority of those surveyed (68%) said they plan to keep the volume of crypto investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them.

And at the end of the review, news for Satoshi Nakamoto fans. According to Daniel Leon, COO of the crypto platform Celsius Network, the creator of bitcoin should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for this invention. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," said Daniel Leon.

Now the little thing to do is to find out if Nakamoto really existed. After all, the Nobel Committee is unlikely to decide to reward a person who has never existed...

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

This money will be useful to you, won't it?

It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers in stores. The undisclosed criminals have infected at least 16 devices in electronics retailers Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores.
According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops.
The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video.

- Investors should take advantage of the latest correction in the digital asset market to build up their positions. This was stated by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. He noted that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate the further growth of cryptocurrency quotes.
“If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. I just think that the risk is decreasing in the current situation. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also washes away some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good first quarter,” the financier explained. Scaramucci stressed that he considers the market reaction "healthy". He called what happened “healing bloodletting”.

- The bitcoin network has processed more US dollar transactions than PayPal since the beginning of 2021. This is stated in a report by Blockdata. The average quarterly for the decentralized network was $489 billion, while PayPal had $302 billion. However, both of these figures are inferior to the average quarterly volumes of such giants as Mastercard and Visa ($1.8 trillion and $3.2 trillion, respectively).
“It is impressive how bitcoin, being a 12-year-old P2P network, has 27% compared to Mastercard, a company founded in 1966,” Blockdata experts noted. At the same time, in their opinion, the bitcoin network is "fundamentally" different from Mastercard and Visa. It is more of a "saving technology" than a "spending" and has more options for use.
Experts believe it is realistic that the cryptocurrency will surpass financial giants as for the volume of transferable value at some point. But to do that, it needs to bridge the bandwidth gap, which they called "staggering."

- Option traders are betting on bitcoin decline for six months for the first time since May. As noted by the CoinDesk portal, this situation does not necessarily imply a long-term market decline. The six-month expected volatility is now at historical averages, so options with more distant expiration are relatively inexpensive. Traders can buy put options in the hope of large profits for a small investment if the decline does occur. There is one more explanation for what is happening. It lies in the fact that traders are trying to protect their long positions in the spot market.
The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month. “Demand is particularly strong for puts with a strike price of $50,000,” the trading firm Paradigm noted.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett believes December could be the month of a rally in the cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) potentially leading it.
According to the expert, the dollar index (DXY), which compares the dollar to a basket of other fiat currencies, could face a downward momentum and give a bullish signal for the crypto market. In addition, Bennett uses a chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (TOTAL). According to him, TOTAL is approaching the completion of the big bullish falling wedge. He also noted the discrepancy between the growing Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the downward exchange rate movement. A rising RSI during a downtrend is often interpreted as a hint of a bullish reversal.

- Imperial Arts French Art Gallery organizes the first ever auction of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) related to personal property owned by Napoleon Bonaparte. The unique auction is held to commemorate the bicentennial of the death of Napoleon I.
The auction will feature: Napoleon's cane from St. Helena, a golden snuffbox, a handwritten letter from Napoleon I to General Bertrand, an official imperial bust of the Empire, a miniature Bonaparte portrait and ivory painting in bronze case depicting Napoleon in the form of Colonel Garde chasseurs a cheval.

- Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, believes that owning bitcoin and other crypto assets is a way to avoid rampant inflation. In a new interview with CNBC, the head of the investment firm called BTC an "ideal" savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency.
According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko.
In his opinion, investors should not be fooled by day-to-day fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, which do not necessarily reflect its true value. In the next few months, Yusko said, macroeconomic conditions could become "unstable" and owning BTC would be an advantage.

- 86% of hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform are their further use for mining, Cybersecurity Action Team experts said. The software needed to do this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack. In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection from the users themselves, analysts noted.

- Bitcoin was down $53,360 this week in response to declines in stock indices and commodity futures. The situation is caused by the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus. Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, believes that investors should buy bitcoin right now, during the correction, as its rate will double in a year.
“Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” says Green. He also suggested that concerns about the spread of Omicron will be short-lived, and investors will again focus on rising inflation.

- According to cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen, the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. That is, within the framework of the current correction, the fall of the first cryptocurrency will not exceed 25% of the historical maximum set on November 10. A similar situation occurred in September, when bitcoin was correcting after reaching $52,000. Then the value of the asset dropped by 23%, after which the coin returned to growth.
Cowen added that the support line for the current bullish trend passes at the $51,000 level. Even if it falls to this level, it is highly likely that the price of the cryptocurrency will push off from this level and begin to rise. At the same time, the specialist admitted that false breakouts of this level could occur.

- Crypto strategist known as Smart Contracter believes that bitcoin is almost ready for a recovery. Smart Contracter uses the Elliott Wave Theory, which predicts the future movement of the rate based on the psychology of market participants, which is manifested in the form of waves. According to his calculations, BTC has completed a 5-wave correction movement and is now ready for a new round of growth.
“There are no signs of an immediate reversal yet, but I believe we have seen the final volumes of surrender. In my opinion, in the case of a worst-case scenario, the BTC rate should rebound sharply to $63,000. The most positive scenario is a new historical maximum,” the expert said.

- The subscribers of the well-known analyst known as PlanB, the creator of the S2F forecasting model, agreed with the opinion that the main cryptocurrency will be able to continue to grow. About 80% of survey participants believe that the maximum recorded on November 10, 2021, around $69,000 is not the limit. According to PlanB, the coin is expected to break through the $100,000 level by the end of the year. However, most of the community members name the $75,000 mark. Ethereum, they believe, is able to rise in price to $7,500 over the same period of time.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Results of November 2021: British Pound is "Favorite" Again

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The leader by the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1596XXX, who earned USD 207,329 during the month. Such a solid profit was made on transactions with a variety of currency pairs, primarily with the British pound: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Other trading instruments of the leader include EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, and AUD/JPY.

- A client from Vietnam, account No. 1416XXX, occupied the bottom line with a result of 37,116 USD in the October TOP-3. A month later, in November, they improved their result more than four times, and climbed to the second step of the podium with a profit of 153,572 USD.

- The third place is taken by a trader from India, account No. 1560XXX, whose profit was obtained from transactions with GBP/USD and amounted to 56,254 USD.

The passive investment services:

- Two signals are currently highlighted in CopyTrading: USD Trading and GFS_FX. The first of them showed an increase of 408% in 43 days of life. 100% of transactions were conducted with the GBP/USD pair, which is favorite of many traders. Such a high result achieved in such a short period can attract many investors. However, the maximum drawdown of 47% indicates the need to be as careful as possible.

As for the second signal, GFS_FX, it looks less aggressive. It exists for a little more than six months (196 days) and brought a profit of 135% during this period. The bulk of transactions (more than 70%) is also related to the British pound: these are the GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/JPY pairs. The maximum drawdown was 34%, so those wishing to subscribe to it should also be very careful.

The lifespan of these signals is rather short and is calculated in months. But, of course, there are long livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, signal MF989923. It has existed for about 7 years, and as a result, it showed an increase of 515%. The signal had serious drawdowns several times during this time, reaching 66%. However, this happened a long time ago for the last time, in March 2020. But trading has since become much less aggressive and less profitable.

- KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account in 10 months with a fairly moderate drawdown, less than 16%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:

- the first position is still held by a partner from Vietnam, account No. 1258XXX, whose commission in November amounted to USD 8,447;
- the next, with a slight lag, is also a representative of Vietnam, account No. 1371XXX, with a result of 7, 225 USD;
- and, finally, the third step of the podium is taken by a partner from India, account No. 1504XXX, who received 6,523 USD as a commission.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/