I have bought Probability EA and put on a couple of demo accounts. I have started on the default settings and so far it does some pretty strange stuff. It opens trades and closes them in a split second one after the other, accumulating rapid losses. I have run many robots and never seen one do this before. It must have a serious bug in it. I am now going to e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org with some screenshots to ask WTF?
I'm not going to slag this robot just yet but my advice is to stay away from this EA until I at least have some sensible answers form this guy.
This is Michael and I am the developer of Probability EA 7.1. First off, I send my thanks to FPA for publishing this forward test. I completely stand behind my product and have nothing to hide, so I welcome all forward tests. I wrote this EA so that I could use it on my own account (and I do), so believe me that I want a trustworthy EA just as much as you all do.
As far as the question by FX-Goober, this is due to the magic number of another EA that you are running on EURUSD in the same terminal at the same time. If you want to have both EAs running, then change the Magic Number parameter on Probability EA from the default to a very large number. Otherwise I would recommend only using Probability EA.
As I said in the email I sent you, the results have been tampered with, likely relating to changing the time frame. The EA will run very well when it is untouched, unless the user is changing a parameter on the EA, but it appears to have been otherwise altered.
This is noted by two things:
1) The random sell trade that never closed should not be there. It did not close because sometime between the other sell trades closing one by one and when the final sell trade should have closed, I'm guess the user changed the timeframe around, even if to change it back at the end. This reset the Magic Number, thereby not allowing the last sell trade to close. This is also apparent by the other sell trade that appeared (which I emailed you about, and is now closed by the EA) that could only have appeared by user manipulation.
2) The gains after the losses are too slow, meaning that the Benchmark variable has been reset, as opposed to it being at the equity high point near the beginning of the test several days ago. It should be closing the gains until it reaches that previous point, unless there was user manipulation.
The best suggestion to regain the integrity of this public forward test is to:
1) Restart the test with v7.1.1, which fixes the Magic Number issue above, and will provide a more accurate testing.
2) Not touch the chart that the EA is running on since this will reset the Benchmark value.
There are several other public tests that have not been altered and provide much better feedback:
Thanks for the tips for optimization. I recently ran into some concerns. I have followed the development of your EA on forexpeacearmy. I am running version 7.1.1 and noticed that when I shut down mt4 and restart it, the tan lines readjust, the benchmark reflects the current value of equity, and normally this closes existing trades. I read what you said about manually inputing the benchmark value BEFORE shutting down the terminal (which is necessary on weekends to avoid destroying my pc), but I still wonder that the "tan line readjusting themselves" problem might still occur. Is this due to the MABars setting? I am using a low MABars setting (6) which I got from an optimization. I was thinking that since such a short MABar setting might cause a shorter term calculation for the tan lines which is, in effect, causing the closing of losing trades and changing the trading environments conditions after restart. I know little about coding since I have no formal C++ training, but I do have a couple of ideas that may help. Perhaps, there could be some kind of supporting script or EA that could be executed before terminal shut down that saves the current values and freezes the EA's settings?! Or maybe there is a method to stop the live trading of the account (causing the smiling face to frown) and then when you restart you can manually input options that would reset the tan bars to the previous state.
I am running 7.1.1. It still loses money as the demo shows at this time on FPA. Shutting down the EA or closing MT4 still causes the "tan lines" to readjust and close positions that were open. Seems to have stopped opening and closing trades immediately as version 7.1 which is good.
Hi I feel that the EA is probably good. I bought the EA and at first had conflicts with other EURUSD EAs, opening and closing orders very quickly. I guess after reading the above posts that not having the EA running on a VPS didn't help things either. I also wonder if some of my problems could also be caused by having other non EURUSD EAs in mt4 upsetting the equity amount which the EA uses to compute its 'benchmark' Because I run up to 15 EAs at the moment I should try just probability on its own. I emailed Michael and his customer support is very good, he gets back quickly. He told me that maybe other EURUSD bots were interfering so I closed all the other charts, however I found the EA still loosing - As he says he runs the EA on his own account - so there are other, individual reasons, for it to be running strangely. I have asked for a refund because the EA is just loosing money, but can now see how that may be due to other factors, rather than the EA being bad. In the strategy tester the EA performs well. I am going to put probability on its own instance of mt4 with nothing else as I still have a lot of time before the 60 days is up. Will let you know how it goes.
My mt4 is not running on a vps, and I have been forced to reboot the system a few times - to me this is quite normal if you have a pc!! the performance of the EA may be affected by this, however it is up nearly 5 % in just over a week.