Questions about account currency & trade strategy

[Anatta]

Hi guys,

Please help me with the following questions

1. I live in Thailand. I plan to open an account with Oanda. Which base currency should I select for my account, Euro or USD? (I was going to choose EURO only because I feel that it is stronger)

2. Has anyone ever tried a simple pattern observation strategy? (I used it on my demo account and has about 70%-80% success rate)

Thanks,

 

[PerniciousPips]

Simple Strategy

I'm not sure about your concern regarding which currency to work with. Either way, you will probably be hit with some kind of currency conversion fee. I've been frustrated with that aspect of trading.

As far as a simple strategy, I have been using a free alert service that has been excellent. I am very close to using the same companies free trading software (not an EA). I watched the YouTube video highlighting the features of this software, and it is pretty amazing (at least the video is!). It integrates several pieces of technical data (Stochastics, MACD, Fib support/resistance, trend lines, etc) to give you an at a glance look at how potential trades might be shaping up. Because the alert service has been consistently good, I'm going to use their software (it's called MatrixFX). I will keep you posted on how it does, and if it's as good as it looks, I will let you know. In the meantime, may you receive lots of pips for Christmas!

 

[Anatta]

Thanks, PerniciousPips. And, Merry Xmas & Happy New year to you and everyone.

I was just wondering if we should select a stronger currency for our account to avoid the risk of devaluation since we are going keep our money in there for a long time.

About the simple strategy, I noticed that on some pairs, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY, the pattern of peak/trough was sometimes so obvious that I was able to correctly predict the direction of the line graph(M5) 70%-80% of the time. And, with some more practice on entry/exit and SL/TP strategy, I feel that I can improve the percentage. Do you have any suggestion on this?

 

[PerniciousPips]

Beware Peaks/Troughs

Thanks, PerniciousPips. And, Merry Xmas & Happy New year to you and everyone.

I was just wondering if we should select a stronger currency for our account to avoid the risk of devaluation since we are going keep our money in there for a long time.

About the simple strategy, I noticed that on some pairs, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY, the pattern of peak/trough was sometimes so obvious that I was able to correctly predict the direction of the line graph(M5) 70%-80% of the time. And, with some more practice on entry/exit and SL/TP strategy, I feel that I can improve the percentage. Do you have any suggestion on this?

When I first started trading, I employed a similiar strategy. As I scalped a few pips here and there, I became more bold--larger lot size, wider S/L and T/P, etc. Then "BAM!" I took a beating. FX is so complex, that you really need a good tutor or proven strategy to proceed. I have been using a free alert service, and I have doubled my money in the last 5 months. Granted, I have a very small account, so double a little is still only a little bigger little, but at least I'm winning. There system is very complex, but they offer free training twice a week via webinars. I am slowly learning their system, and I think I like it. It's called getforexalerts. All that to say that I would be wary of the "what goes up must come down" strategy. It works much of the time, but it's those few times it doesn't that you really get burned. Just some thoughts. Have an awesome new year. Blessings to you and your fam.

 

[cowmadagan]

Pernicious is so right about getting bolder. Everyone likes to think that they're different, and they'll be the omniscient one who'll be praised for their foresight and making triple digit percents on their investments.
Everyone who's in that phase feels like, oh it's because this person didn't do their homework (even though many haven't) or they just don't see what 'I' see, and that's why they're losing and I'm winning.
If you're working full-time and trading part time, first decide how often you intend on checking the numbers. If you only have time to check it once per month, then you should know what amounts (in cents) the pair you prefer can change in a month. Once you know that, only buy or sell the ones that have already changed that amount, and only after you've done your homework on the news.
If you look at a chart, try to notice how the end is suspended in thin air. We want it to go one way or the other, but it can continue or reverse.
As for whether to put your account in Euros or USD, the important thing to realize is that if you make $100USD or $100EUR in a day or a week, it doesn't matter how much either one changes; you're still making money.
The best thing to do is watch the volatility of the currency compared to other currencies, and the size of the economy.
We've spent a year hearing about how the USD is going down the drain, but it seems more accurate that the Euro has more flexibility in its value range.
That said, I'd also know what other people's takes are on this subject.