Rosen's Daily Commentary

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USD/CAD reacted strongly to last week's support when the pair briefly touched the support line at 1.3220 and then went to the upside. The gains, however, might turn out to be short-lived. After the initial impact, USD/CAD went to a high of 1.3342 and then the momentum disappeared.

The latest lower than expected US data that came out on Friday, the CPI and ARS, reflected in the price of the US dollar. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3297, down some 50 points until now.

The opening hours of today's session can be described as hours of low volatility and insignificant moves that could help traders and investors gain some insight about market sentiment and overall market conditions.

 

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EUR/USD is trading slightly higher in today's early European hours. The pair is currently at 1.0635 as market participants are getting ready to return to the markets after a few days of rest and low volumes.

 

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The speech by the UK Prime minister Theresa May focused on holding general elections on June 8. The news initially drove investors away from the Sterling but just a few minutes before the speech ended, the Sterling skyrocketed leaving all bears caught by surprise.

One of the most influenced pairs was the GBP/.CHF pair which reacted bearishly right at the resistance line at 1.2640. The pair reached a low of 1.2551, then spiked to a high above 1.2683.

Economic growth, according to Theresa May, has exceeded all expectations and the leaving of the EU would not be a disaster as expected by many people.

Other GBP pairs were also influenced by the speech. GBP/USD is now 1.2664. Overall, a very positive reaction in the Bullish camp of the UK currency.

 

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EUR/USD is trading higher today after a good start of the week yesterday. The pair reached a high of 1.0735 and is now trading slightly lower at 1.0724.

 

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USD/JPY has been trading to the downside ever since it reached its peak post-elections when Trump became president. The pair reached a high of 118.60 on Dec 16 and then slowly started to depreciate until recently when it made its lowest point at 108.11.

The pair is now 108.99 and it seems that the support level has successfully managed to hold the bears from destroying the trend. More important, however, is the fact the Yen has been depreciating against all of its peers.

The Yen is trading at support against the Australian dollar as well so we might expect a change in direction. The GBP/JPY pair is the only one that is going to the upside due to the unexpected announcement about the UK General Elections in June.

 

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The EUR/USD pair had a relatively calm day today. The move to the upside seems hard to continue so the pair traded sideways. Current market price: 1.0714, support 1.0680, resistance 1.0750.

 

[rosentray]

USD/CAD is trading to the upside this week as price reached a high of 1.3489. The pair seems to have gathered enough momentum to keep it going. The Canadian dollar has been weakening and this is the main reason the price is advancing.

On the other hand, the US dollar is also having a period of depreciation as it is losing points to its peers. USD/CAD reached the 200SMA last week at 1.3223 and is now getting closer to the double top at 1.3534. This would be a good time to enter short in the market.

If that level of resistance holds, first bear target is seen at 1.3240, which would be a retest of the 200SMA. Next target would be the support line at 1.3140. If the bulls turn out to be stronger, price will be heading to major bull zone at 1.3842.

 

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For the first time in 5 months the Euro went as high as 1.0920. The pair reacted to news coming from the French election day where the French nation chose Macron as the first one to go to second round against Le Pen.

The different views of the candidates are what made the spike in the Euro Dollar so obvious. Macron is Pro-European and focused on close partnership with the European union, whereas Le Pen has the potential to create a Frexit, after the Brexit.

Macron boosted the European currency as well as European stocks. The Euro went as high as 1.0920 against its major competitor - the US dollar. Currently, trading price is gravitating towards 1.9865.

Main trend on the short-term remains bullish.

 

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The Sterling is close to its 7-month high as the GBP/USD pair has been rallying on technicals and fundamentals combined. On the technical side, the pair registered a low of 1.1920 on Oct 7 and since then it has been trading in the wide range between 1.20 and 1.27.

The pair had a double bottom at 1.1980 on Jan 16, ever since then it's been swinging for the fences. Latest high was registered a few days ago on April 19 at 1.2902. Current market price is 1.2811 and it appears that the price has consolidated in the last week around 1.28-1.2850.

Main trend remains strongly bullish and if the bulls manage to go above the resistance line at 1.2950 we might see a renewed momentum to the upside.

On the other hand, bears might try and use this as an opportunity to push it lower to first bear target at 1.2730.

 

[rosentray]

GBP/JPY has been trading to the upside for the past couple of weeks as price advanced from 135.57 to the latest high made yesterday at 143.01. The Sterling rallied on the news that the United Kingdom will be having General election on June 8.

Market participants favored the announcement made by the UK Prime minister Theresa May and the Sterling climbed up against all of its competitors.

Currently, the GBP/JPY pair is trading somewhat lower at 142.70 but momentum is still bullish and has the potential to bring the pair up to resistance at 144.00.

If that level is reached, bears may take action and try and bring it down to potential first target at 142.50. On the other hand, if bulls are able to keep the momentum going, the pair may go to a high of 145 as first target.